December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

.23" RF today...Hi of 56

60 here.. nice High pressure-NAO, like always. 

[78Blizzard]

On 11/28/2022 at 5:32 PM, qg_omega said:

5 days ago this 8-day snapshot was being ridiculed because it conflicted with what many were saying or thinking would be a pattern flip a couple of days or so later.

Well, we are now 3 days out from this snapshot and the pattern does not appear to be changing after 12/6.

Perhaps some of the reactions could be of the kinder, gentler variety.  As we have seen, no one here has a lock on when the next pattern change takes place.

Just saying...

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Finally had a chance to look at the model runs of 12z and 18z.  After viewing those, I am wondering WTF with the tenor on this board?  GFS is showing clear signals for storms...big effers at that.  Maybe not perfect snow set ups, but at least the game has begun.  I see more reason for optimism than pessimism.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

5 days ago this 8-day snapshot was being ridiculed because it conflicted with what many were saying or thinking would be a pattern flip a couple of days or so later.

Well, we are now 3 days out from this snapshot and the pattern does not appear to be changing after 12/6.

Perhaps some of the reactions could be of the kinder, gentler variety.  As we have seen, no one here has a lock on when the next pattern change takes place.

Just saying...

 

 

I guess in some alternative universe 12/6 is after 12/10....the weather weenie XFiles

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess in some alternative universe 12/6 is after 12/10....the weather weenie XFiles

?

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Finally had a chance to look at the model runs of 12z and 18z.  After viewing those, I am wondering WTF with the tenor on this board?  GFS is showing clear signals for storms...big effers at that.  Maybe not perfect snow set ups, but at least the game has begun.  I see more reason for optimism than pessimism.

If the storms aren’t snow then it never happened.  That’s the truth unfortunately.

A December run/streak of suppressed but strong lows that result in little snow is viewed the same as “it never happened.”

It’s the cold/wet season… one will always take their chances with big QPF this time of year.  Weather is a game of probabilities, which people hate because it’s uncertainty.

This QPF pattern is the sign of a very strong block.  That’s what the guidance has shown, a strong block.  Snow is just a nuance in that.  You hedge your bets in certain regions with a strong block.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If the storms aren’t snow then it never happened.  That’s the truth unfortunately.

A December run/streak of suppressed but strong lows that result in little snow is viewed the same as “it never happened.”

It’s the cold/wet season… one will always take their chances with big QPF this time of year.  Weather is a game of probabilities, which people hate because it’s uncertainty.

This QPF pattern is the sign of a very strong block.  That’s what the guidance has shown, a strong block.  Snow is just a nuance in that.  You hedge your bets in certain regions with a strong block.

Thing is I can't count on one hand the number of major snow storms I have had prior to 12/10.....people just totally forget that..why folks in SNE want a great pattern on 12/5 is beyond me....holding off isn't the worst outcome.

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thing is I can't count on one hand the number of major snow storms I have had prior to 12/10.....people just totally forget that..why people in SNE want a great pattern on 12/5 is beyond me....holding off isn't the worst outcome.

I said exactly this yesterday. Even in the most prolific winters my area in SNE usually never saw any meaningful snow before Christmas at best. Maybe some here are just too young to have a good perspective 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I said exactly this yesterday. Even in the most prolific winters my area in SNE usually never saw any meaningful snow before Christmas at best. Maybe some here are just too young to have a good perspective 

I would get it if we were seeing a black hole over AK with a death star PV, but 'cmon....so we wait until climo gets better and are closer to the holidays...boo hoo lol. This isn't going to go away or fail...its rooted in the stratosphere and tropics. It's not just clown range model antics. Could we still just end up with shit luck and not much snow? Sure, but odds are against it.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I said exactly this yesterday. Even in the most prolific winters my area in SNE usually never saw any meaningful snow before Christmas at best. Maybe some here are just too young to have a good perspective 

Nailed it. Often when discuss sensible weather it gets twisted around usually by Kevin. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It’s like reading 1984 in here sometimes

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nailed it. Often when discuss sensible weather it gets twisted around usually by Kevin. 

At this range, I am more confident I'm this pattern materializing than I was March 2018....that was many strat...this is strat and tropics...probably more tropics. Patterns dependent on mainly strat are riskier bc funky shit can happen with PV splits, etc.

[George001]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would get it if we were seeing a black hole over AK with a death star PV, but 'cmon....so we wait until climo gets better and are closer to the holidays...boo hoo lol. This isn't going to fo away or fail...its rooted in the stratosphere and tropics. It's not just clown range model antics. Could we still just end up with shit luck and not much snow? Sure, but odds are against it.

Yeah, the models have been going back and forth on the starting date of the pattern change. I haven’t really noticed a delay, it moved from the 13th to the 10th and back to the 13th again on the ensembles. Even if it does get delayed a bit more on the models it’s not a big deal, and if anything those of us closer to the coast should be rooting for a delay to like the 20th or so.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I said exactly this yesterday. Even in the most prolific winters my area in SNE usually never saw any meaningful snow before Christmas at best. Maybe some here are just too young to have a good perspective 

People love to rush the seasons. I think it’s largely caused by the lag between solar vs. climo.  When the sun angle increases and daylight lengthens from March to June, they want warmth trending to hot.  Reality is there’s a lag and heat/humidity is more commonly July-September.

In the autumn, decreasing sun angle and darkness leads to a deep desire for winter in November and December.  However, the lag behind the solar schedule says that winter/snow is largely a Jan-Mar exercise.

Most people’s frustrations come from the sensible weather not lining up with the solar schedule… causing a rush on seasonal expectations.  It should be deep winter right now in people’s minds (because it’s dark at 4-5pm) but climo says it should be above freezing in the means.  Doesn’t add up, causes mental conflicts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

People love to rush the seasons. I think it’s largely caused by the lag between solar vs. climo.  When the sun angle increases and daylight lengthens from March to June, they want warmth trending to hot.  Reality is there’s a lag and heat/humidity is more commonly July-September.

In the autumn, decreasing sun angle and darkness leads to a deep desire for winter in November and December.  However, the lag behind the solar schedule says that winter/snow is largely a Jan-Mar exercise.

Most people’s frustrations come from the sensible weather not lining up with the solar schedule… causing a rush on seasonal expectations.  It should be trending towards deep winter in people’s minds but climo says it should be above freezing in the means.  Doesn’t add up.

I agree w Kev, it would be great to snow from Tday through St Paddy day, but it just doesn't work like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, the models have been going back and forth on the starting date of the pattern change. I haven’t really noticed a delay, it moved from the 13th to the 10th and back to the 13th again on the ensembles. Even if it does get delayed a bit more on the models it’s not a big deal, and if anything those of us closer to the coast should be rooting for a delay to like the 20th or so.

Usually the big events that I do get in the first half of December are from SWFE, etc...not coastals....in a way, it's better for the coast to hold off on the big coastal pattern.

[George001]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At this range, I am more confident I'm this patteen materializing than I was March 2018....that was many strat...this is strat and tropics...probably more tropics. Patterns dependent on mainly strat are riskier bc Funky shit can happen with PV splits, etc.

Yeah the polar vortex splitting isn’t always good for us, it can actually be bad. A couple years ago the polar vortex split to the wrong side of the globe and we had a really mild winter (2020 I think it was). I read that this year is expected to be a weak polar vortex based on the latest guidance, but no polar vortex split. I don’t even think this polar vortex event is expected to be an official SSW, just a bunch of smaller disruptions to the polar vortex instead which can be just as good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah the polar vortex splitting isn’t always good for us, it can actually be bad. A couple years ago the polar vortex split to the wrong side of the globe and we had a really mild winter (2020 I think it was). I read that this year is expected to be a weak polar vortex based on the latest guidance, but no polar vortex split. I don’t even think this polar vortex event is expected to be an official SSW, just a bunch of smaller disruptions to the polar vortex instead which can be just as good.

Yea, I got burned hard core in 2020...one of two huge busted seasonal forecasts. I don't foresee an official SSW this year...just MHO.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree w Kev, it would be great to snow from Tday through St Paddy day, but it just doesn't work like that.

Yup, I’m in that camp too.  Recognizing it is the key to expectations.

2015 is a great example.  Folks suffered through the darkest, murkiest time of the year with very little to no snow.  Fall 2014 to early 2015… frustrating.

Then the sun starts to rise in the sky, people lose their cool because now it’s time for things to head towards the warm season… melts in early January are just that, people who sense the sun going in the other direction and thinking they are on borrowed time.

It snows 100” for some spots in the next 3-4 weeks of increasing sun angle and it’s historic on many levels.  It’s the coldest time of year despite lengthening daylight and solar angle.

The mind plays tricks on our expectations due to the solar pattern. It’s an interesting psychology (Tippy would enjoy it, along with others).

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

The mind plays tricks on our expectations due to the solar pattern. It’s an interesting psychology (Tippy would enjoy it, along with others).

You sound like tippy . I think it’s simply most people (But Ray)  Bought into a period of below normal temps and east trough with  snow chances after the 5’th and it’s not happening on that time frame , not because of rushing season but bc they bought into that modeling time frame or they are simply mentioning it  and If people who seem upset about that logic that  the models were off for 12/5 to 12/14  would simply say “ya it’s delayed , models were off, that part changed clearly on 500mb anomaly maps   , it would not be a topic . It would  have been like 3-4 comments lol . Like I think it should have been . 
 

i really don’t think solar insulation has anything at all to do with anything here ... But I sure hate when it’s pitch black at 430 pm , it takes me months to see that as normal . 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree w Kev, it would be great to snow from Tday through St Paddy day, but it just doesn't work like that.

I wish it did 

It should because we live in the north

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I wish it did 

It should because we live in the north

12-9 is amped to the tiits on 0z gfs 

[MJO812]

Gfs is a lakes cutter for the 9th

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You sound like tippy . I think it’s simply most people (But Ray)  Bought into a period of below normal temps and east trough with  snow chances after the 5’th and it’s not happening on that time frame , not because of rushing season but bc they bought into that modeling time frame or they are simply mentioning it  and If people who seem upset about that logic that  the models were off for 12/5 to 12/14  would simply say “ya it’s delayed , models were off, that part changed clearly on 500mb anomaly maps   , it would not be a topic . It would  have been like 3-4 comments lol . Like I think it should have been . 
 

i really don’t think solar insulation has anything at all to do with anything here ... But I sure hate when it’s pitch black at 430 pm , it takes me months to see that as normal . 

It is a psych analysis type of evaluation... but even recognizing that, I think it is a rush on the seasonal expectations that leads to disappointment.

It could be below normal temperatures at times for sure, behind the rain events.  I personally didn't see many graphics posted that showed below normal 2-meter temperatures over a prolonged time.  I saw 5-day means or whatever of 500mb heights showing partial below normal levels?  That's like 20,000 feet up in the sky.

We don't live at H5.  The pattern starts at H5 but it's not the end all deterministic outcome.  It's hedging bets towards a pattern.  An NAO block means a deeper low may form, deepen, and slow along the East Coast.  That's it.  We'll see if we get any here at the end of autumn, rain or snow.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12-9 is amped to the tiits on 0z gfs 

Lol cmc shreds the 9th storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a look at January 1969....brutal luck, then shit hit the fan in February.....1995 was the exception in that the pattern paid off immediately.  That usually isn't the case....much like everything else in nature, there is a lag...just like with respect to the seasons relative to the sun.

[powderfreak]

The winter season officially starts December 21st for a reason.  Summer starts June 21st.  Climo lags behind solar.

We can hate it, but there is a reason why that is a thing.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is a psych analysis type of evaluation... but even recognizing that, I think it is a rush on the seasonal expectations that leads to disappointment.

It could be below normal temperatures at times for sure, behind the rain events.  I personally didn't see many graphics posted that showed below normal 2-meter temperatures over a prolonged time.  I saw 5-day means or whatever of 500mb heights showing partial below normal levels?  That's like 20,000 feet up in the sky.

We don't live at H5.  The pattern starts at H5 but it's not the end all deterministic outcome.  It's hedging bets towards a pattern.  An NAO block means a deeper low may form, deepen, and slow along the East Coast.  That's it.  We'll see if we get any, rain or snow.

There was a post by scott about people freaking about above normal 500 mb height anomalies In runs a week week Ago (for next week )  over SE / mid Atlantic and slightly above in parts of SNE and he overlayed  a 2 M temp forecast that had “light blues “ to basically make a point that not to worry based on that scenario, but that same 2 m temp map is different now as you probably Know . (I do remember the 10+ 2 m anomaly’s were just East of New England over parts of Nova Scotia ) 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lol cmc shreds the 9th storm

I think 6z gfs or something suppressed it Into mid Atlantic and gave them snows outside DC . Tons of volatility and you just sort of wait for a trend to take hold 

[8611Blizz]

29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12-9 is amped to the tiits on 0z gfs 

https://tenor.com/view/the-big-short-jacked-jacked-to-the-tits-gif-20860308