December 2022 Obs/Disc

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is this a good thing?

 

NO.  Usually when it's cold in the west it's warm in the east.  We usually want to the see the ridge out west for it to be possibly good here.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Walking the streets of Burlington VT-47 with squally rain at times.  

Normal is 40/27… looks like it was 50/27 today.

About a +5 in BTV-land.

Its wild that it’s still early enough that the average low is still only 5 below the freezing mark and most of the day should be above freezing this time of year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

NO.  Usually when it's cold in the west it's warm in the east.  We usually want to the see the ridge out west for it to be possibly good here.

Except in a negative PNA/NAO pattern...its cold east and west in the north. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Something like 18z GEFS shows what I was talking about the good pattern keeps on getting pushed back. Just rinse and repeat trough in west and ridge in east through day 12+… 

[Torch Tiger]

CPC says we not cold

 

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 12 2022

Model solutions remain consistent that high latitude blocking develops over theNorthern Hemisphere early in December, consistent with a negative phase of theArctic Oscillation (AO). A very strong blocking ridge is forecast to retrogradewestward from the North Atlantic to Greenland during the first ten days ofDecember, resulting in a west-based negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).Near normal temperatures are favored for the Great Lakes, Northeast, andMid-Atlantic since dynamical models have backed off on the magnitude ofanomalous cold shifting southward from Canada and statistical tools lean warmerfor the East. Likewise, dynamical models are less robust with anomalous coldspreading south of the 40th parallel and positive 500-hPa height anomaliesincrease probabilities for above-normal temperatures across the south-centraland southeastern CONUS. Surface high pressure, with anomalous cold, is forecastto remain centered over the Great Basin, which favors below-normal temperaturesthroughout much of the West.A more amplified 500-hPa trough over the West led to a wetter forecast todaycompared to the previous 6-10 day outlook. Above-normal precipitation isfavored throughout much of the West, Great Plains, and Mississippi Valley.Based on this predicted trough, a two-category change from below to above isnecessary for parts of the West. In addition, there is a greater chance of alow pressure system tracking across the central CONUS and the 6-10precipitation outlook reflects this trend in model guidance. The highestconfidence in the precipitation outlook exists across the lower Ohio Valley andMiddle Mississippi Valley where a mean surface front is likely to be a focusfor precipitation. The precipitation outlook is highly uncertain across thenorthern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The Greenland block and negative NAO wouldfavor an East Coast storm, but the ensemble spread is large on how close to theEast Coast a storm tracks, if it were to develop. Therefore, near normalprecipitation is favored for these areas.Positive 500-hPa height departures coupled with westerly surface flow favorabove-normal temperatures and precipitation for much of western and northernMainland Alaska along with the Aleutians. Surface high pressure is forecast tostrengthen across the Yukon and expand westward, which elevates theprobabilities for below-normal temperatures across southeastern Alaska.The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 6z GFSEnsemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Meancentered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day8FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to goodagreement among the ensemble means offset by poor continuity in theprecipitation tools.8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 10 - 16 2022The ensemble means continue to offer different solutions on the longwavepattern over the North Pacific and western North America during week-2. The GEFS and Canadian ensemble means maintain a more amplified 500-hPa ridge overthe North Pacific and Aleutians with a trough downstream and offshore of the West Coast. In contrast, the ECMWF ensemble mean shifts the anomalous ridging from the Aleutians eastward to the higher latitudes of western North America. Based on continuity and teleconnections derived from the well-agreed upon large positive 500-hPa height anomaly center near Greenland, the GEFS and Canadian ensemble means are preferred. However, the ECMWF ensemble mean is not completely discounted due to its higher 500-hPa anomaly correlation scoreduring the past 60 days. Despite these model differences, the temperature tools are in good agreementfor colder-than-normal temperatures across the western and north-central CONUS.The longwave pattern over North America with high latitude blocking would favorperiodic intrusions of anomalous cold southward from Canada. Similar to the6-10 day period, the reforecast tools have trended warmer across thesouth-central CONUS which is reflected in an increased coverage of favoredabove-normal temperatures for this region. This is likely due to a moreamplified trough upstream near the West Coast. Given the well-establishednegative NAO, the temperature outlook hedged colder across the Mid-Atlantic andSoutheast, compared to the reforecast tools.

*As the blocking ridge remainsstrong over Baffin Bay through the end of week-2, there is likely to be atendency for anomalous cold to shift southward away from the Great Lakes an New England. Therefore, near to above-normal temperatures are favored for much of these areas. *

Precipitation tools have trended wetter today across the western and centralCONUS, due to a predicted 500-hPa trough near the West Coast (by the GEFS andCanadian ensemble means) along with an increased chance of subtropical moisturebecoming entrained within the mid-latitude flow. A two-category change frombelow to above is necessary across the Midwest, based on the latest modelguidance. Since the storm track is expected to remain farther north duringweek-2, below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Southeast. Basedon multiple ensemble members depicting a low pressure system near New England early in week-2, probabilities for above-normal precipitation are slightly elevated for this region. The manual 500-hPa height blend depicts a continuation of anomalous ridging over the North Pacific and Aleutians. Since the preferred GEFS and Canadian ensemble means feature only minor changes in the longwave pattern over Alaska and adjacent areas through week-2, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks fortemperature and precipitation are similar.The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's 6z GFSEnsemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered onDay 11

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due todiverging model solutions on the longwave pattern across the North Pacific andwestern North America along with large ensemble spread with the ArcticOscillation late in week-2.FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

[greenmtnwx]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Something like 18z GEFS shows what I was talking about the good pattern keeps on getting pushed back. Just rinse and repeat trough in west and ridge in east through day 12+… 

Everything aside from some questionable probability long-term ensemble runs leans towards punting the next 15 days outside of high elevation NNE. And those ensembles are trending worse and getting kicked down the road. Sensible weather, persistence and operational  runs indicate close the shades until maybe last 10 days of month. And that’s too far out to have much trust in whether this pattern will indeed flip. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

NO.  Usually when it's cold in the west it's warm in the east.  We usually want to the see the ridge out west for it to be possibly good here.

There are definite exceptions .

CPC maps shade  above normal ave Temp in the New England thru next 10 days as most have seen , with pna and Nao being whatever they are 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

From the CPC 

52 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Based on continuity and teleconnections derived from the well-agreed upon large positive 500-hPa height anomaly center near Greenland, the GEFS and Canadian ensemble means are preferred.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

There's a few that have been leading the pack with this pessimism. I honestly and truly don't care if it doesn't snow until after Christmas. We don't truly get our winter weather going until January or February and even March. Our biggest snow storms ever have been in those months. Less common to have them in December.

I would love to have some snow by Christmas. That would be awesome. But am I going to crawl into a hole and die. Am I going to keep on talking about how horrible this is and how I told you so and how I said that I knew this was going to happen and the pattern wasn't going to change. Or that It was going to keep getting pushed back. No. Those of you who have been saying that can keep on torturing yourselves lol.

I'll be ready when that big one comes about.

Beer and freaking lot of it 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Walking the streets of Burlington VT-47 with squally rain at times.  

Zip up the vest tightly 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You hate to see the F bombs .. 

jk .. i prob care less about the weather in my specific spot more than most bc I’ll drive to snow Like a degenerate Feind  . My schedule and work let’s me do this more than ever this year . Once we get passed mid week rain to Quebec I’ll be relaxed as long as NNE doesn’t torch post that 

I before e… except after C

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Something like 18z GEFS shows what I was talking about the good pattern keeps on getting pushed back. Just rinse and repeat trough in west and ridge in east through day 12+… 

That trough in the west just keeps building instead of going away as we go, day by day. I feel like we just experienced this recently, last year? 2020?....at some point, the trough will just keep showing up, at which the NAO will break down and we will have lost the NAO and still have no PAC to help out....Just some paranoia showing up since I have seen good patterns never make it to fruition.

Hoping for some snow, but ok if we stick with status quo for now, it will snow again.....Hopefully in January

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

That trough in the west just keeps building instead of going away as we go, day by day. I feel like we just experienced this recently, last year? 2020?....at some point, the trough will just keep showing up, at which the NAO will break down and we will have lost the NAO and still have no PAC to help out....Just some paranoia showing up since I have seen good patterns never make it to fruition.

Hoping for some snow, but ok if we stick with status quo for now, it will snow again.....Hopefully in January

Yeah I kept stating all will be ok, and nobody worry until at least one MET shows concern. 

Seymour is the first.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I kept stating all will be ok, and nobody worry until at least one MET shows concern. 

Seymour is the first.

The mets don’t get very high or low , they Are pretty even tempered , we are really lucky that they have that temperament and they aren’t nuts . They also want to maintain Some continuity bc their posts carry more weight and imo they also hate weenies complaining or poo pooing so keep that in mind . 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I kept stating all will be ok, and nobody worry until at least one MET shows concern. 

Seymour is the first.

La Nina needs to go away

Annoying

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I kept stating all will be ok, and nobody worry until at least one MET shows concern. 

Seymour is the first.

There have been a few signs here and there in the discussions over the past couple days....It has been brought up that the GEFS have been handling the PAC better than the EPS recently, that might have been the sign of trouble occuring. The better pattern was always going to be when the PAC would improve, but that has been kicked for days now....Its not a pig, but when those blues keep showing up past day 10, concerns begin to creep in. 

As much as I want to see snow, I have to get a section of my land ready for a shed delivery the end of December. Kind of hard to do that with snow covered, frozen ground. The town took forever to get the permits approved, talk about kicking the can until the last minute.

[CoastalWx]

I don’t know. I look at it from a broad picture. To me it has been looking like an interior pattern as I said over a week ago. Whether it’s delayed two days or five days doesn’t matter to me. I still appreciate the look. Good news is that we look to get a much better shot post 12-14 or so. We can say that now as we get closer into the pattern details. Two weeks ago, all we could say is post 12/5. I think people have unrealistic expectations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know. I look at it from a broad picture. To me it has been looking like an interior pattern as I said over a week ago. Whether it’s delayed two days or five days doesn’t matter to me. I still appreciate the look. Good news is that we look to get a much better shot post 12-14 or so. We can say that now as we get closer into the pattern details. Two weeks ago, all we could say is post 12/5. I think people have unrealistic expectations.

Yea, the first half of the pattern always favored the interior in my mind, too.....so figure the window open between 12/10 and 12/14 for interior...the coast joins the frey after mid potentialwise mid month and we also can't forget that the first couple of cracks at it often don't pan out in these patterns....so the coast could very easily be waiting until around or just before xmas without anything having gone wrong pattern wise. 

This is why I stressed that the coast may nor have a white xmas and kost of the fun comes in January when I wrote everything up in November. It looked like maybe things were speeding up, but that has ceased.

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know. I look at it from a broad picture. To me it has been looking like an interior pattern as I said over a week ago. Whether it’s delayed two days or five days doesn’t matter to me. I still appreciate the look. Good news is that we look to get a much better shot post 12-14 or so. We can say that now as we get closer into the pattern details. Two weeks ago, all we could say is post 12/5. I think people have unrealistic expectations.

Good to see we are still in here endlessly repeating the same sentiment over and over again, hehe. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Jay are you getting to the GTG for the love of your own balls 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Good to see we are still in here endlessly repeating the same sentiment over and over again, hehe. 

I'm the first one to melt and bitch when I feel like things have gone wrong, but we just aren't there yet.

[Whineminster]

51 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

NO.  Usually when it's cold in the west it's warm in the east.  We usually want to the see the ridge out west for it to be possibly good here.

Yep. About 99% of the time this is true, no matter what the weenies say. It's actually pretty simple. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Take a look at January 1969....brutal luck, then shit hit the fan in February.....1995 was the exception in that the pattern paid off immediately.  That usually isn't the case....much like everything else in nature, there is a lag...just like with respect to the seasons relative to the sun.

[TalcottWx]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Jay are you getting to the GTG for the love of your own balls 

We hope and pray. I may have to make it happen. If upper management allows me. 

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know. I look at it from a broad picture. To me it has been looking like an interior pattern as I said over a week ago. Whether it’s delayed two days or five days doesn’t matter to me. I still appreciate the look. Good news is that we look to get a much better shot post 12-14 or so. We can say that now as we get closer into the pattern details. Two weeks ago, all we could say is post 12/5. I think people have unrealistic expectations.

Western trough is giving everyone PTSD….definitely from last December. 
 

Patterns aren’t the same though. If the western trough decides to dig to Baja through Xmas, then maybe but I don’t see that and guidance isn’t showing it either. Lots of emotional hedging going on I think. The pattern should produce plenty of threats imho. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Western trough is giving everyone PTSD….definitely from last December. 
 

Patterns aren’t the same though. If the western trough decides to dig to Baja through Xmas, then maybe but I don’t see that and guidance isn’t showing it either. Lots of emotional hedging going on I think. The pattern should produce plenty of threats imho. 

Notice how LR models skew reacts strongly to current conditions?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The mets don’t get very high or low , they Are pretty even tempered , we are really lucky that they have that temperament and they aren’t nuts . They also want to maintain Some continuity bc their posts carry more weight and imo they also hate weenies complaining or poo pooing so keep that in mind . 

I know you know this, but most of forecasting anything but super short term is maintaining continuity and not swinging with each run or even a day of runs.  Never want to windshield wiper it.  Stay the course until it’s certain not to happen.

The Mets also trust 500mb layouts much better than the laymen, who often want deterministic results immediately.  You can tell the steady ones are the ones who will take the 500mb look and play those odds all day even if deterministic doesn’t happen.  Every time 500mb looks a certain way, hedge snow.  Maybe it doesn’t snow but they will hedge bets that way every time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Western trough is giving everyone PTSD….definitely from last December. 
 

Patterns aren’t the same though. If the western trough decides to dig to Baja through Xmas, then maybe but I don’t see that and guidance isn’t showing it either. Lots of emotional hedging going on I think. The pattern should produce plenty of threats imho. 

I will take -NAO/RNA regime over -NAO/+PNA....especially in December.

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will take -NAO/RNA regime over -NAO/+PNA....especially in December.

I will say, the funny thing is our Mets were actually calling for it to be a pattern change next weekend. They had temperatures going into the 30s for highs here in Connecticut. now they have them them back up into the 40s into the following week ( although this has went back and forth over the last week and a half with the forecast showing cold and then not as cold and cold again now not as cold, so I wouldn't be surprised if this changes again ).

We will eventually get snow and cold, I'm confident of that. But this is an odd pattern. It looks like it's a perfect setup, but some delays keep pushing it back a bit. I think that's why there's so many meltdowns and freak outs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

.23" RF today...Hi of 56