December 2022 Obs/Disc

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s still a good block but the orientation matters. But this is only for the earlier period prior to 12/14 or so.

I just think a lot of folks are having higher confidence past a 12 day-2 week forecast period than **i believe** is warranted 

I know Ray bc he believes in medium range forecasting skill ..But Most others bc models have consistently shown a great look at day 10-15 for 5 days but the look hasn’t got inside 10 days .  I don’t have much faith in medium term forecasting on our sensible weather, never mind high confidence.  Yes this Period still has a high ceiling but wide goal posts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Agree. And remember the talk wasn’t just about it cooling down or we might be just near normal to climatology etc.. It was more talk of historic block, 2010 walking through the door, monster potential all that. 

This still has historic potential.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Agree. And remember the talk wasn’t just about it cooling down or we might be just near normal to climatology etc.. It was more talk of historic block, 2010 walking through the door, monster potential all that. 

It still may happen.. but this uneasiness that most of us here are feeling is not for naught. We simply cannot waste the first 3 weeks of December and expect it will just flip to snow and chill 

[Great Snow 1717]

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled as guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

You should post more often!!

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled as guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

Which initially was Dec 5th. You can scroll back and see all the posts. 

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Agree. And remember the talk wasn’t just about it cooling down or we might be just near normal to climatology etc.. It was more talk of historic block, 2010 walking through the door, monster potential all that. 

Great post!!!

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

We don’t need the pacific to be good when the blocking is this strong. The blocking will prevent storms from cutting.

And they'll generate their own cold.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled as guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

Some people don’t want to hear it, so you can’t make them, but this is absolutely true. We are slowly inching the really good look out in time. That is fact, not fiction 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yep, was the same in the NYC thread. Suddenly we’re talking about Boxing Day Bowling Balls and getting high on the supply. 
 

Very guilty here. I’m sure you guys will do better than us regardless of how this evolves, but I’m really hoping the favorable progression toward the end of the month holds. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

And they'll generate their own cold.

I always love that one lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

as i said yesterday… this looks horrible. draw the shades for a while

We keep kicking the can a bit though. Hopefully we don’t kick it off a cliff 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which initially was Dec 5th. You can scroll back and see all the posts. 

Well yes Monday is December 5th and is next week.  It’s delayed about a week from the initial great pattern depiction about 2 weeks back.  But it quickly turned into a December 7-9 pattern change last weekend, however the past two days has now turned it into  December 13+.  I am a bit uneasy about the delay too, however if we can get this pattern into the 5-10 day range instead of the 10-15 day range I’d feel much better. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I just think a lot of folks are having higher confidence past a 12 day-2 week forecast period than **i believe** is warranted 

I know Ray bc he believes in medium range forecasting skill ..But Most others bc models have consistently shown a great look at day 10-15 for 5 days but the look hasn’t got inside 10 days .  I don’t have much faith in medium term forecasting on our sensible weather, never mind high confidence.  Yes this Period still has a high ceiling but wide goal posts 

It's not just about model forecasting skill, though. This big block is not going away....do I trust long range guidance? No. But I do trust my ability assess the tropical landscape, and the tropics and to a lesser extent the stratosphere is not going to allow this to go to crap.

Not happening. Now, if someone is going to yell bust because we don't end up with January 2011 or March 2018, then that is on them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is still too rushed? Maybe...its always been a matter of when, not if. I originally expected the fireworks in January, anyway

[qg_omega]

49 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

as i said yesterday… this looks horrible. draw the shades for a while

10 to 15 day ensembles have no skill, the 10 to 15 day ensemble mean looked good two weeks ago as does today’s….as I said many times statistically it is worse than a coin flip

[Damage In Tolland]

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We keep kicking the can a bit though. Hopefully we don’t kick it off a cliff 

Who ? The favorable pattern was always mid month .

[MJO812]

LoL at everyone getting worried 

[George001]

Just now, MJO812 said:

LoL at everyone getting worried 

Yeah there’s no reason to worry. As long as there is blocking it will snow. Not every threat will work out but we will have enough chances that the odds of us making it out of December without at least one big storm is very low.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, George001 said:

Yeah there’s no reason to worry. As long as there is blocking it will snow. Not every threat will work out but we will have enough chances that the odds of us making it out of December without at least one big storm is very low.

Also there won’t be cutters with a block . I think  you should remind folks of that 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

That’s even worse. I got 18 from here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-football-is-even-in-a-football-broadcast/amp/

Yes ...but a lot happens in that amount of time. It comes down to greater expectations for excitement when the ball is in play. NFL Football is also just one example...  The NBA can't be ridiculed for the same product model.   Baseball certainly can - it's taking hits in recent generation(s), too.

Again, it was not about the sport in that missive?  The satire was directed toward the cultural attention span.

agreed though, all these products are over-sold.   They could actually make all the money they need on other exposure methods.  Jerseys and uniforms, side-line graphics, field paint.  Other techniques to get it across anyway.   It may be in the works... with the increased streaming tech infrastructure, the 'cable captive audience' model is slipping into history.   

[George001]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Also there won’t be cutters with a block . I think  you should remind folks of that 

That’s right. Lows don’t ram into massive blocks like this one.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s right. Lows don’t ram into massive blocks like this one.

Agree

[dendrite]

Hopefully the weenies were less invested in FTX than the upcoming pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

Is this a good thing?

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is this a good thing?

 

Looks like Stein has hit the color palette to his graphic.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s right. Lows don’t ram into massive blocks like this one.

George ... I am going to do you a favor as a reward for having not used the word 'blizzard' over the span of your last 20 posts ...

The storm loading pattern is from the Pacific.  Not the block. The Pacific matters in fact entirely.   Blocking is just an indication of where storms can't go, but it is in fact there because of the total circulation/wave mechanical forcing that is always vectored W--> E in the NH mid latitudes. Which means ... the Pacific ultimately caused the block. 

Just helping you understand the conceptualization of this stuff.   

There is no storm if the Pacific does not provide disturbances  ( and by Pacific in this context, that means "from west to east" ).

Also, the blocking episodes that do materialize can be too aggressive...and cause a larger scale destructive interference pattern, and so the Pacific can do it's part to deliver disturbances into eastern N/A ...but they get summarily damped out by compression and velocity surpluses ...which is a shearing factor.  Not just about suppressing - the block is really only a favorable aspect within a narrower window than people probably are aware.  

Lakes cutters are less likely in the presence of a west limb -NAO...yes, that is true...but if the -NAO is decaying as a system is organizing, it may move in that direct.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Fortunately the 18z gfs came in more amped with the day 5.5-6 system and it isn’t suppressed this run ..unfortunately as it tracks under long island the air mass is torched except for Catskills . Which gives hunter mtn a weenie 20”

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is this a good thing?

 

No ... but it may not be right.  There's a probability embedded in those regions/structures. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Fortunately the 18z gfs came in more amped with the day 5.5-6 system and it isn’t suppressed this run ..unfortunately as it tracks under long island the air mass is torched except for Catskills / Berks 

Rain