Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I like the Sound of that. heh... it is what is - 270 hours is unfortunately just a wee bit too far out in time.... It's just fun to talk about the movie lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: 47 here in Essex Jct, VT. Dank and wet. Not what i envisioned when I booked months ago. Next weekend in Chicago. I'm traveling to different places until the pattern change comes. It may be an expensive winter! I think NNE is in line to have some real wide goal posts for December temperature departures anywhere from a little below to torchy depending on how things break for them past the 12’th . First 1/3 of month should be much above there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Bob dropping knowledge in this thread. If you are looking objectively at this stuff, you are probably looking toward Christmas week give or take for a real favorable look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: CMC is horrible model. George was waxing poetic about the miller B on the long range op CMC last night...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bob dropping knowledge in this thread. If you are looking objectively at this stuff, you are probably looking toward Christmas week give or take for a real favorable look. Drop this in your mouth. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bob dropping knowledge in this thread. If you are looking objectively at this stuff, you are probably looking toward Christmas week give or take for a real favorable look. I think around 12/16 and beyond is our time. We could get lucky before but I think it will be tough beforehand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think around 12/16 and beyond is our time. We could get lucky before but I think it will be tough beforehand. So we are essentially on the same page, more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 The caveat obviously is, mountains and CNE and NNE could cash earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So we are essentially on the same page, more or less. I think once the Pacific responds better we cash in. And then it takes a few days for it to affect sensible wx. That brings us to mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Euro op boring / blah compared to gfs . We roll the dice again at 0z. Takes the 12’th system to Montreal but yes 9 days out , just shows the goal posts are very wide that far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So we are essentially on the same page, more or less. we typically punt early/mid December anyway..so I'm fine with waiting another 10 days before hopefully getting a couple legit threats to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 I'm guessing the clown range GFS was already discussed, but this would be something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Feels like Christmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: Feels like Christmas. Maybe if you’ve been a good boy Santa will bring you another relaxation period around Xmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Broke out of the wedgie for about 5 mins here and hit 49°. Back to the low 40s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Another thing I noticed is that the orientation of the block has sort of changed. It’s kind of elongated and a little further east, not this big circular mass squashing everything. Eventually it does retrograde, but I think the orientation isn’t helping as much either. This is just the initial stages, I’m not talking about after mid month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 It’s been wind driven rain for a while now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Another thing I noticed is that the orientation of the block has sort of changed. It’s kind of elongated and a little further east, not this big circular mass squashing everything. Eventually it does retrograde, but I think the orientation isn’t helping as much either. This is just the initial stages, I’m not talking about after mid month. Is there any sort of image/ map you could point to that shows sorta what your talking about . so basically the block being further East thru mid month helps storms cut toward Great Lakes and then redevelopment under the block is further north and a tad weaker ? Or what is a better way to put it regarding the other features that become tweaked And the effects on sensible weather odds / chances etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Euro backs up my thoughts. Ugly run nearing Christmas week. More backpedaling by models today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Euro backs up my thoughts. Ugly run nearing Christmas week. More backpedaling by models today. There is definitely some truth that Over the last few days the period of the 9-15 has trended toward worse chances of wintry weather from NNE to SNE (than how things looked a week ago for that period . Chances were never that high for CP of SNE so that group shouldn’t mind these changes . It can still snow in interior but more help maybe needed . You have the lower heights hanging around Cali Which was a new development over the last 4 days Of modeling and then scooter mentioned the orientation of the block looking less favorable over that period . The period after looks very good but it’s far enough out that it is not very confidence to me . Also the period of the 9-15 seems like it could still deliver just that we may need more luck In CNE/ NNE then it may have seemed several days ago for the same period . anyone, let me know what is not accurate about that statement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Euro backs up my thoughts. Ugly run nearing Christmas week. More backpedaling by models today. Stop looking at the ops Check out the eps Several threats coming Ops are going to struggle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I think once the Pacific responds better we cash in. And then it takes a few days for it to affect sensible wx. That brings us to mid month. We don’t need the pacific to be good when the blocking is this strong. The blocking will prevent storms from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: There is definitely some truth that Over the last few days the period of the 9-15 has trended toward worse chances of wintry weather from NNE to SNE (than how things looked a week ago for that period . Chances were never that high for CP of SNE so that group shouldn’t mind these changes . It can still snow in interior but more help maybe needed . You have the lower heights hanging around Cali Which was a new development over the last 4 days Of modeling and then scooter mentioned the orientation of the block looking less favorable over that period . The period after looks very good but it’s far enough out that it is not very confidence to me . Also the period of the 9-15 seems like it could still deliver just that we may need more luck In CNE/ NNE then it may have seemed several days ago for the same period . anyone, let me know what is not accurate about that statement . The ensembles still have a signal. Nothing has changed, 1st threat 10-11th, 2nd threat 13-14th, 3rd threat 17-20th. The later threats are more likely to produce than the earlier ones, but all of them have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: The ensembles still have a signal. Nothing has changed, 1st threat 10-11th, 2nd threat 13-14th, 3rd threat 17-20th. The later threats are more likely to produce than the earlier ones, but all of them have a chance. I’m saving the chance is lower than several days ago for the.first two system (it’s still a chance) , no shit there is a chance at this range . You know when you click on your weather app and it says 70% chance of showers later tonite and then you click 6 hours later and the chance has gone to 50% , that is the idea here for the 9-15’th period . It doesn’t require a degree in meteorology or mathematics but perhaps psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m saving the chance is lower than several days ago for the.first two system (it’s still a chance) , no shit there is a chance at this range I don’t agree that the chances are lower for the first 2 systems, the ensembles have a lot of hits. OP runs are still useless. If anything the chances for the 2nd system has increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 George will you be making it to the GTG, it would spice things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Wnswmbkea 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Stop looking at the ops Check out the eps Several threats coming Ops are going to struggle Ensembles look better, but they have regressed as well. Bottom line is I don’t care how negative the NAO is, it’s not getting rid of that stubborn SE ridge without a western ridge developing. We need help with the PNA, otherwise the SE ridge is the most dominant feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Wnswmbkea Ensembles look better, but they have regressed as well. Bottom line is I don’t care how negative the NAO is, it’s not getting rid of that stubborn SE ridge without a western ridge developing. We need help with the PNA, otherwise the SE ridge is the most dominant feature. We want the SE ridge to prevent suppression. We don’t need help with the PNA, it can snow with a negative PNA and it can snow a lot. December 2010 had a trough out west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: George will you be making it to the GTG, it would spice things up I might stop by, I’m not sure yet though. I’ll have to check my schedule to see if I can make it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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