December 2022 Obs/Disc

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

They can enjoy.  When I'm posting, I'm mostly posting for the CP.  It's fugly till mid month.

Fine to me. Climo is better second half and at least these give us chances. I’m cool.

[Jersey Andrew]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May as well go ahead and contribute to derailing a thread that's the worst kind of evil:  perpetual optimism that never produces....

I played soccer in my youth.  Between the ages of 10 and 13, I played those four years.  I wasn't good.  I wasn't bad.  Mostly I just didn't pay attention. Even while the game was being played, whether I was running around or not, I remember being there ... but not much else.  I think I may have once even 'headed' a ball successfully, not intending to do so.  I was watching a CB rolling out over a horizon when the object found my head... 'Uhph! oh?  right' and the coach said 'way to go'.    

The game is boring by American cultural wiring - it's like trying to propagate an MJO wave out out of the marine sub-continent, into a La Nina footprint... only with soccer, the energy there is out of phase with the energy of the people.  We need faster dynamic switches. It's just in our cultural nature.  Events need to trigger excitement, because they have elements of uncertainty that really prove to 'save the day', vastly more frequently ... perhaps right down to the scale of the momentary play on the 'ball'. Quick, expedient retries at glory.  The next time down the court. The next snap of the football. The next delivery of the puck down to the other end of the ice.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen 17 points scored in the last 5 minutes of an NFL game, steal victory from the monster of defeat.  In Soccer?  I can't tell you how many times I've seen who ever scores first, wins... proving the the rest of the game a futile slog fest; the first goal happens in the first 10 of 90 eternal minutes of the affair...  That is just not the way we are wired.   

It's amazing really that MLB has survived, though it is faltering ( most likely causally related ).  The excitement of NFL, NBA, and to some lesser extent, NHL ... these sports either knew this about the population, or just were lucky to have evolved within the target demographic they have. Their products directly tap the 'it can still happen' nerve, at the pace that is required to keep the attention of this culture centered.  

Soccer may never take on the appeal to the common populate beyond having reason for parents to vent to one another over the travails of living in a sped up, tense dynamic seeking hurried culture ( ironically) that's equally unsatisfying to them.  Once in while, you get that soccer dad or mom that gets in the face of the ref and embarrasses everyone - but all they are really doing is trying to find the control they don't have over their unsatisfying job or home-life ... using an event that is supposed to be teaching children something else entirely.   That doesn't really substantiate the game, but to that hot headed parent's taking exception over their brat's deserved penalty kick, a venting therapy sure felt completely necessary to them.  

Huge sports fan here and absolutely agree Tip.

 

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Funny... no sooner did I post that muse... the U.S. hero'ed in a goal some how. Wah waah

See?  That's how the online social media game is played - chances to win or lose on every play, not just the game.

Soccer is just a poor TV sport. The whole game comes down to setting up angles for maybe three chances per game. Instead of 11 on 11, 9 on 9 play would open up the box and allow for more opportunities.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No chances in the next three weeks

Nah that's nonsense 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May as well go ahead and contribute to derailing a thread that's the worst kind of evil:  perpetual optimism that never produces....

I played soccer in my youth.  Between the ages of 10 and 13, I played those four years.  I wasn't good.  I wasn't bad.  Mostly I just didn't pay attention. Even while the game was being played, whether I was running around or not, I remember being there ... but not much else.  I think I may have once even 'headed' a ball successfully, not intending to do so.  I was watching a CB rolling out over a horizon when the object found my head... 'Uhph! oh?  right' and the coach said 'way to go'.    

The game is boring by American cultural wiring - it's like trying to propagate an MJO wave out out of the marine sub-continent, into a La Nina footprint... only with soccer, the energy there is out of phase with the energy of the people.  We need faster dynamic switches. It's just in our cultural nature.  Events need to trigger excitement, because they have elements of uncertainty that really prove to 'save the day', vastly more frequently ... perhaps right down to the scale of the momentary play on the 'ball'. Quick, expedient retries at glory.  The next time down the court. The next snap of the football. The next delivery of the puck down to the other end of the ice.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen 17 points scored in the last 5 minutes of an NFL game, steal victory from the monster of defeat.  In Soccer?  I can't tell you how many times I've seen who ever scores first, wins... proving the the rest of the game a futile slog fest; the first goal happens in the first 10 of 90 eternal minutes of the affair...  That is just not the way we are wired.   

It's amazing really that MLB has survived, though it is faltering ( most likely causally related ).  The excitement of NFL, NBA, and to some lesser extent, NHL ... these sports either knew this about the population, or just were lucky to have evolved within the target demographic they have. Their products directly tap the 'it can still happen' nerve, at the pace that is required to keep the attention of this culture centered.  

Soccer may never take on the appeal to the common populate beyond having reason for parents to vent to one another over the travails of living in a sped up, tense dynamic seeking hurried culture ( ironically) that's equally unsatisfying to them.  Once in while, you get that soccer dad or mom that gets in the face of the ref and embarrasses everyone - but all they are really doing is trying to find the control they don't have over their unsatisfying job or home-life ... using an event that is supposed to be teaching children something else entirely.   That doesn't really substantiate the game, but to that hot headed parent's taking exception over their brat's deserved penalty kick, a venting therapy sure felt completely necessary to them.  

Terrible thoughts. Stick to weather. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Fine to me. Climo is better second half and at least these give us chances. I’m cool.

Pretty sure it been said ad nauseam that this shift will happen in stages.

I’m not sure who reasonably figured snow would be anything but a low likelihood deal pre 12/12 or so. I don’t get why some are going in circles with this. We’re watching water boil. Patience. 

[HimoorWx]

May as well go ahead and contribute to derailing a thread that's the worst kind of evil:  perpetual optimism that never produces....
I played soccer in my youth.  Between the ages of 10 and 13, I played those four years.  I wasn't good.  I wasn't bad.  Mostly I just didn't pay attention. Even while the game was being played, whether I was running around or not, I remember being there ... but not much else.  I think I may have once even 'headed' a ball successfully, not intending to do so.  I was watching a CB rolling out over a horizon when the object found my head... 'Uhph! oh?  right' and the coach said 'way to go'.    
The game is boring by American cultural wiring - it's like trying to propagate an MJO wave out out of the marine sub-continent, into a La Nina footprint... only with soccer, the energy there is out of phase with the energy of the people.  We need faster dynamic switches. It's just in our cultural nature.  Events need to trigger excitement, because they have elements of uncertainty that really prove to 'save the day', vastly more frequently ... perhaps right down to the scale of the momentary play on the 'ball'. Quick, expedient retries at glory.  The next time down the court. The next snap of the football. The next delivery of the puck down to the other end of the ice.
I can't tell you how many times I've seen 17 points scored in the last 5 minutes of an NFL game, steal victory from the monster of defeat.  In Soccer?  I can't tell you how many times I've seen who ever scores first, wins... proving the the rest of the game a futile slog fest; the first goal happens in the first 10 of 90 eternal minutes of the affair...  That is just not the way we are wired.   
It's amazing really that MLB has survived, though it is faltering ( most likely causally related ).  The excitement of NFL, NBA, and to some lesser extent, NHL ... these sports either knew this about the population, or just were lucky to have evolved within the target demographic they have. Their products directly tap the 'it can still happen' nerve, at the pace that is required to keep the attention of this culture centered.  
Soccer may never take on the appeal to the common populate beyond having reason for parents to vent to one another over the travails of living in a sped up, tense dynamic seeking hurried culture ( ironically) that's equally unsatisfying to them.  Once in while, you get that soccer dad or mom that gets in the face of the ref and embarrasses everyone - but all they are really doing is trying to find the control they don't have over their unsatisfying job or home-life ... using an event that is supposed to be teaching children something else entirely.   That doesn't really substantiate the game, but to that hot headed parent's taking exception over their brat's deserved penalty kick, a venting therapy sure felt completely necessary to them.  

We are big soccer fans and I have been going to England for Manchester City matches (and others) for 6 or 7 years. I got tickets for the final Manchester City match last season and they needed a win to clinch the Premier League title. City were 2 goals down after 70 minutes, then scored 3 goals in five and a half minutes to win. Most amazing sports event in my 68 years. Oh, it was my wife's 65th birthday that day and I will never be able to top that present!

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Bob gets his op blizzard

[MJO812]

Big changes from the 6z run

 

12z left

 

6z right

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Big changes from the 6z run

 

12z left

 

6z right

18z could change to cutter again. Expect volatility.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I like that bomb at hour 260-270. Juicy . Just outside 128/495 

The one before that was more Berks / Catskills but something 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z could change to cutter again. Expect volatility.

Yep

[moneypitmike]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Interior pattern 

climo seasons in seasons.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

We are big soccer fans and I have been going to England for Manchester City matches (and others) for 6 or 7 years. I got tickets for the final Manchester City match last season and they needed a win to clinch the Premier League title. City were 2 goals down after 70 minutes, then scored 3 goals in five and a half minutes to win. Most amazing sports event in my 68 years. Oh, it was my wife's 65th birthday that day and I will never be able to top that present!

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah... by the way, - the previous missive is by no means a commentary that devalues Soccer - that 'should' be clear to the reader?  The missive is more a tongue-in-cheek satire ( of sorts ... shy of real supposition ) into the fleeting attention span of Americans, and why-for Soccer doesn't carry the same popularity. 

You know... ( and ugh) we live in an present zeitgeist where it's 'fun' ( some how) to take exception for seemingly least excuse to do so -... it's called 'recreational outrage' but I digress. 

Personally, I like the game. I watched the Americans ( and Brazil...as I have friends from that region). I will continue to do so.    ...well, apparently not the Americans - oops.  My futility missive had merit after all. haha.   No, but the usefulness of the game to world, and the U.S. slowness to wake up to that,  doesn't say anything about the game itself.    

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFs has I think been better in pacific but has been waffling. I still think this favors interior and could be a fun pattern for them. I think coastal areas may have to wait a bit. We’ll see. Some models really have strong HP nosing in and have been hinting at coastal snow too.

 

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty clear that we’re fighting that SE ridge a bit more than previously progged in the Dec 8-12 timeframe but that doesn’t mean we can’t snow in that period…it will just be a little harder. Need to time things pretty well and latitude will help. 
 

I still have no qualms about beyond that. It’s hard to get the pattern looking a whole lot better than both EPS and 06z GEFS in the long range. 

Yea, things have trended a bit more towards the type of progression that I had envisioned last month for the month of December....with the need to fight the Pacific alot this month, which favors up and in....at least initially. Albeit the NAO is still more aggressive earlier relative to what I had thought. Anyway, December looked to me like a slow build up for alot of us and that looks to be the case.

Nothing is "cancelled", troll lens not withstanding.

[Typhoon Tip]

What ?   

huh I saw two mid level bombs on this oper. GFS. Oh they're out there in time, sure, but I'm throwing a confused

at myself over a hostile take of the 12z run.  

Maybe it didn't reflect well in the surface evolution?  much less the blue colors haha.   I dunno, I'll go take a look. But as far as the height handling and the wave propagation aspects of Meteorology, that was encouraging to me as a winter enthusiast because it at least showed some respect for the NAO hemisphere in driving deeper centers E and not W of New England.  

Dec 13.14  and 17.18   ...and at this range, regardless of the surface particular design it's still more about the mid level height scaffolding ...ens etc, anyway and worry about that other shit later. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What ?   

huh I saw two mid level bombs on this oper. GFS. Oh they're out there in time, sure, but I'm throwing a :confused: at myself over a hostile take of the 12z run.  

Maybe it didn't reflect well in the surface evolution?  much less the blue colors haha.   I dunno, I'll go take a look. But as far as the height handling and the wave propagation aspects of Meteorology, that was encouraging to me as a winter enthusiast because it at least showed some respect for the NAO hemisphere in driving deeper centers E and not W of New England.  

Dec 13.14  and 17.18   ...and at this range, regardless of the surface particular design it's still more about the mid level height scaffolding ...ens etc, anyway and worry about that other shit later. 

Having some factors being more hostile than others isn't prohibitive to snow....I'm mot saying its December 2001. All I mean is that it's not frigid and the coast may squirm early on.

The RNA is relatively hostile this month...on obviously that doesn't mean it can't snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Having some factors being more hostile than others isn't prohibitive to snow....I'm mot saying its December 2001. All I mean is that it's not frigid and the coast may squirm early on.

The RNA is relatively hostile this month...on obviously that doesn't mean it can't snow. 

I was directing toward the 'tenor'

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I was directing toward the 'tenor'

Sorry, it was right after me,so got confused 

[Snowcrazed71]

Oh boy, I love how these crazy inconsistent model runs are just shredding some people apart lol.

I'm sure as we get closer to these events, they'll be some surprises. Some will be good and some will be bad. But things are a changing that's for sure.

Oh, and for those of you jumping off the cliff, we'll have plenty of ropes to help lift you back up :-)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Through an IMBY lens, I would prefer this over arctic flood gates pouring in. I'll take my chances here....the ceiling is immense.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah the surface evolution is better than okay there guys.  Jeez -

I may be speaking to the straw man in the room, and I realize that there are those on the immediate coast/near-by oceanic climo taints that get screwed ( anyway...) at this time of year, but what is depicted there is correctable for everyone - relative to your IMBY climate.

I would even watch 144 hour for courier and ives holiday mooders in the air for shopping and Nut Cracker donuts and cider evenings because that GFS 2-meter layout is dubious... That's likely to really be a low level growth region/beneath a saturated inversion from oceanic flow riding over 925 mb sub-freezing air as a viable correction there.   Yeah, synoptic storm peels south and misses, but leaves us in long fetch of steadily cooling after that too... 

Of course ...all this is just speaking to this one run of the oper. GFS ...  haha -

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Every model run is like forest gumps box of chocolates . 

I’d like one more model run to show a surprise snower from the 9’th. Some are close still .

 

[dendrite]

39° and rain here while everyone else is tropical. ‘Tis the season.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow... that Dec 13.14 thing is a dynamic little beast.   It's got a warm seclusion wrapped into the core as it moves straight E astride L.I., with sub-0C 850s N of the track...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow... that Dec 13.14 thing is a dynamic little beast.   It's got a warm seclusion wrapped into the core as it moves straight E astride L.I., with sub-0C 850s N of the track...

Ya , it’s beautiful. And then you got the CMC which would test even the rosier folks definition of “nothing has changed” as a cutter goes thru Minneapolis And more are lined up .

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow... that Dec 13.14 thing is a dynamic little beast.   It's got a warm seclusion wrapped into the core as it moves straight E astride L.I., with sub-0C 850s N of the track...

I like the Sound of that. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya , it’s beautiful. And then you got the CMC which would test even the rosier folks definition of “nothing has changed” 

CMC is horrible model. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

CMC is horrible model. 

Oh 100% it is 

I’m trying to remember thou what models are good these days . I heard many poo-poo the ecmwef / even Euro ENS the gfs op past day 5 , etc . But yes I agree  the CMC Is the worst 

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

39° and rain here while everyone else is tropical. ‘Tis the season.

47 here in Essex Jct, VT. Dank and wet.  Not what i envisioned when I booked months ago.   Next weekend in Chicago.  I'm traveling to different places until the pattern change comes.  It may be an expensive winter!