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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Love how the GEFS moved towards the EPS w/r/t the pac.

Looks really good for even us coasties. 

On a side note, massive difference DOD on the GEFS MJO chart. More spread and into the COD.

Today

image.png.2147977f8bf9c5fb4b4d63eaba9c4ec5.png

 

 

There is definitely an emerging consensus in longer range guidance that things could go from decent/good to very good as we get closer to the final week before holidays. 

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah.. one daughter in college and other is a junior in HS. Plays soccer and hoops for THS . Her other soccer team doesn’t play in fall due to HS. Maybe a spring tourney 

Just busting. We used to go up there. My daughter plays, she’ll be off to play in college in two years. 

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May as well go ahead and contribute to derailing a thread that's the worst kind of evil:  perpetual optimism that never produces....

I played soccer in my youth.  Between the ages of 10 and 13, I played those four years.  I wasn't good.  I wasn't bad.  Mostly I just didn't pay attention. Even while the game was being played, whether I was running around or not, I remember being there ... but not much else.  I think I may have once even 'headed' a ball successfully, not intending to do so.  I was watching a CB rolling out over a horizon when the object found my head... 'Uhph! oh?  right' and the coach said 'way to go'.    

The game is boring by American cultural wiring - it's like trying to propagate an MJO wave out out of the marine sub-continent, into a La Nina footprint... only with soccer, the energy there is out of phase with the energy of the people.  We need faster dynamic switches. It's just in our cultural nature.  Events need to trigger excitement, because they have elements of uncertainty that really prove to 'save the day', vastly more frequently ... perhaps right down to the scale of the momentary play on the 'ball'. Quick, expedient retries at glory.  The next time down the court. The next snap of the football. The next delivery of the puck down to the other end of the ice.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen 17 points scored in the last 5 minutes of an NFL game, steal victory from the monster of defeat.  In Soccer?  I can't tell you how many times I've seen who ever scores first, wins... proving the the rest of the game a futile slog fest; the first goal happens in the first 10 of 90 eternal minutes of the affair...  That is just not the way we are wired.   

It's amazing really that MLB has survived, though it is faltering ( most likely causally related ).  The excitement of NFL, NBA, and to some lesser extent, NHL ... these sports either knew this about the population, or just were lucky to have evolved within the target demographic they have. Their products directly tap the 'it can still happen' nerve, at the pace that is required to keep the attention of this culture centered.  

Soccer may never take on the appeal to the common populate beyond having reason for parents to vent to one another over the travails of living in a sped up, tense dynamic seeking hurried culture ( ironically) that's equally unsatisfying to them.  Once in while, you get that soccer dad or mom that gets in the face of the ref and embarrasses everyone - but all they are really doing is trying to find the control they don't have over their unsatisfying job or home-life ... using an event that is supposed to be teaching children something else entirely.   That doesn't really substantiate the game, but to that hot headed parent's taking exception over their brat's deserved penalty kick, a venting therapy sure felt completely necessary to them.  

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Another fugly GFS run into mid month. Hostile pattern.

So is it 45 and rain or 35 and rain? It looks like a ton of marine puke incoming...early December climo for the modeled pattern it seems. Hopefully we get lucky, but with out any fresh cold air, it will be an uphill battle, at least through mid month

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7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So is it 45 and rain or 35 and rain? It looks like a ton of marine puke incoming...early December climo for the modeled pattern it seems. Hopefully we get lucky, but with out any fresh cold air, it will be an uphill battle, at least through mid month

Yeah, the flow around the high brings in marine puke.

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