STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 This forum is like a reality show , it’s great . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: There are some hints of at least that possibility. There always a possibility of anything happening in weather…like getting a great storm in a crap pattern too…but the odds are against that imo currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: There are some hints of at least that possibility. Haven’t seen Will or Scott mention that, so for now I’m hoping no lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 I’m looking forward to when PF decides it’s a good time to Tip toe out of NNE thread , post 2 feet of upslope and say it’s been currier and Ives for 2 weeks And then give the CP peeps a pep talk as Scott is dangling w leg over the Tobin after 2 interior warning events he was skunked on . That’s all I want for Xmas . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: There always a possibility of anything happening in weather…like getting a great storm in a crap pattern too…but the odds are against that imo currently. It’s not pure chance. It likely won’t happen that way but it could if things roll in a certain way. There’s risk to this type of pattern. Hopefully it’s low risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 What is concerning for winter lovers is the fact that the coldest stays in Siberia. Now even if it hit western Canada it’s ok as long as it doesn’t spill west of the continental divide. If it doesn’t do that cold could spread over Canada and we can cash in as long as the boundary isn’t too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Big NAO block on the euro at day 10 Tellies look great on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Big NAO block on the euro at day 10 Tellies look great on the Euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m looking forward to when PF decides it’s a good time to Tip toe out of NNE thread , post 2 feet of upslope and say it’s been currier and Ives for 2 weeks And then give the CP peeps a pep talk as Scott is dangling w leg over the Tobin after 2 interior warning events he was skunked on . That’s all I want for Xmas . This year it sounds like it’ll be DIT. If we get to mid-December with lawn still out there, there’ll be a melt coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 I’m not really getting “PV into the western US while we stay warm” vibes from this look…but whatever urgent panic floats your boat is fine, just at least support it with something. The initial cold dumps west…no disputing that, but it doesn’t maintain that look. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This year it sounds like it’ll be DIT. If we get to mid-December with lawn still out there, there’ll be a melt coming. Ya we always tear up when you melt and the snow stake only gets 190” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not really getting “PV into the western US while we stay warm” vibes from this look…but whatever urgent panic floats your boat is fine, just at least support it with something. The initial cold dumps west…no disputing that, but it doesn’t maintain that look. Classic look. The hemming and hawing will last another week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya we always tear up when you melt and the snow stake only gets 190” I don’t know what’s wrong with me, I’m already looking forward to March sunshine and a deep mountain pack… followed by the warm season vibes, ha. The winter just doesn’t get me as it used to a decade ago. Maybe I still had that residual ALB/Hudson Valley winter angst and it’s finally completely gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 I have a feeling the first event (or even first 2) could pretty easily be cutty or SWFE. With a bit of a SE ridge flex at least initially that seems like a decent bet. Plenty of chances going forward post 12/10 or 12/12 as Will mentioned. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Classic look. The hemming and hawing will last another week. Here’s the progression. You can see the initial cold dump west…but those low heights get forced under the NAO block as it migrates eastward. When we have a +NAO, it often will just swing up into Baffin/Davis Strait and keep us in a perpetual ridge situation….but not here. Dec 5th Dec 8th Dec 12th: 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 50s for Christmas then? We've had worse. 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Congrats Chatham James ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I have a feeling the first event (or even first 2) could pretty easily be cutty or SWFE. With a bit of a SE ridge flex at least initially that seems like a decent bet. Plenty of chances going forward post 12/10 or 12/12 as Will mentioned. 12/6-7 kind of looks like that. That’ll send many into a bit of a tirade I’m sure regardless of how good it looks going forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/6-7 kind of looks like that. That’ll send many into a bit of a tirade I’m sure regardless of how good it looks going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 How were those record highs today? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 19 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Will . That Ensembles look. Just put up a patience Grasshoppers alert. The term used in Jan 11 when Scooter was crying about sledding on mud. Oh my God, that was really 2011? I remember that melt. I would have said it was 5 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: If Kevin was the planner this is how things would look...not that I'd complain 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Oh my God, that was really 2011? I remember that melt. I would have said it was 5 years ago No 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 It’s a great look..no disputing that. I’m just giving qq the nod for explaining what could go wrong...Will alluded to it. Right now no guidance shows it fortunately but something I keep my eye out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s a great look..no disputing that. I’m just giving qq the nod for explaining what could go wrong...Will alluded to it. Right now no guidance shows it fortunately but something I keep my eye out for. Looks like he was locking in the euro op? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like he was locking in the euro op? He’s a TROLL! Don’t give him the time of day. Will already said that doesn’t look like what he said currently. If it does going forward, then that’s different. But he’s alluding to BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: It’s a great look..no disputing that. I’m just giving qq the nod for explaining what could go wrong...Will alluded to it. Right now no guidance shows it fortunately but something I keep my eye out for. But he(Will) said it doesn’t look like that currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, TalcottWx said: 2015? 1890 blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 I'm not sure I see a circumvallate containing spatial area the size of three Texas' at or beneath -20C at 850 mbs as being any kind of cold being left in Siberia... Okay, perhaps in the scalar sense? Sure, it's not -45C N of Lake Superior. Winter's over... There's nothing there that is 'going wrong' either way. lol - Guys I will admit that 'something' can and probably will, given the time range, 'go wrong'. We're psyched over a pattern look that's post D7 - that seldom ends even above the 90th percentile of expectations. In the rare occasions... like really rare, it goes above that. Barring the 1995 or 2015 redux, if we got 70% of the present look ( fair spit ball) to verify, we're probably batting better than .500 in the dailies. And there'd be enough cold air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 The adults have told the children to sit down , grab their binky and relax . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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