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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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I’m looking forward to when  PF decides it’s a good time to Tip toe out of NNE thread , post 2 feet of upslope and say it’s been currier and Ives for 2 weeks And then give the CP peeps a pep talk as Scott is dangling w leg over the Tobin after 2 interior warning events he was skunked on  . That’s all I want for Xmas .

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There always a possibility of anything happening in weather…like getting a great storm in a crap pattern too…but the odds are against that imo currently. 

It’s not pure chance.  It likely won’t happen that way but it could if things roll in a certain way.  There’s risk to this type of pattern.  Hopefully it’s low risk.

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What is concerning for winter lovers is the fact that the coldest stays in Siberia.   Now even if it hit western Canada it’s ok as long as it doesn’t spill west of the continental divide.   If it doesn’t do that cold could spread over Canada and we can cash in as long as the boundary isn’t too far north.

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22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m looking forward to when  PF decides it’s a good time to Tip toe out of NNE thread , post 2 feet of upslope and say it’s been currier and Ives for 2 weeks And then give the CP peeps a pep talk as Scott is dangling w leg over the Tobin after 2 interior warning events he was skunked on  . That’s all I want for Xmas .

This year it sounds like it’ll be DIT.  If we get to mid-December with lawn still out there, there’ll be a melt coming.

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I’m not really getting “PV into the western US while we stay warm” vibes from this look…but whatever urgent panic floats your boat is fine, just at least support it with something. 
 

The initial cold dumps west…no disputing that, but it doesn’t maintain that look. 
 

 

121454D4-7AA2-43D2-8214-08A221854DD8.png

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not really getting “PV into the western US while we stay warm” vibes from this look…but whatever urgent panic floats your boat is fine, just at least support it with something. 
 

The initial cold dumps west…no disputing that, but it doesn’t maintain that look. 
 

 

121454D4-7AA2-43D2-8214-08A221854DD8.png

Classic look. The hemming and hawing will last another week. 

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya we always tear up when you melt and the snow stake only gets 190” 

I don’t know what’s wrong with me, I’m already looking forward to March sunshine and a deep mountain pack… followed by the warm season vibes, ha.

The winter just doesn’t get me as it used to a decade ago.  Maybe I still had that residual ALB/Hudson Valley winter angst and it’s finally completely gone.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Classic look. The hemming and hawing will last another week. 

Here’s the progression. You can see the initial cold dump west…but those low heights get forced under the NAO block as it migrates eastward. When we have a +NAO, it often will just swing up into Baffin/Davis Strait and keep us in a perpetual ridge situation….but not here. 

Dec 5th

650B6485-F968-4AB2-969E-2225E3E6C7C1.thumb.png.30fdb71dc7a89e0fc6c3ea46952300d7.png

 

Dec 8th

40E273B8-F520-406C-BF30-8B61228BE2CB.thumb.png.13d65055d3569af1e1cb2261d38c9ee3.png

 

Dec 12th:

F7E0EEA0-0FF1-44B6-8CB7-EAC8DA25AA0D.thumb.png.d4e4c74f3cfccc02e9105c7079c4d1e2.png

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I have a feeling the first event (or even first 2) could pretty easily be cutty or SWFE. With a bit of a SE ridge flex at least initially that seems like a decent bet.

Plenty of chances going forward post 12/10 or 12/12 as Will mentioned. 

12/6-7 kind of looks like that. That’ll send many into a bit of a tirade I’m sure regardless of how good it looks going forward. 

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I'm not sure I see a circumvallate containing spatial area the size of three Texas' at or beneath -20C at 850 mbs as being any kind of cold being left in Siberia... Okay, perhaps in the scalar sense? Sure, it's not -45C N of Lake Superior. Winter's over... There's nothing there that is 'going wrong'  either way. lol -

Guys I will admit that 'something' can and probably will, given the time range, 'go wrong'. We're psyched over a pattern look that's post D7 - that seldom ends even above the 90th percentile of expectations.   

In the rare occasions... like really rare, it goes above that.

Barring the 1995 or 2015 redux, if we got 70% of the present look ( fair spit ball) to verify, we're probably batting better than .500 in the dailies.  And there'd be enough cold air. 

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