The 4 Seasons Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 December snowfall history for the past 12 years for BDL & BDR w/ climo normal for POR. All or nothing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: December snowfall history for the past 12 years for BDL & BDR w/ climo normal for POR. All or nothing December's a long month. I bet if you did a 12/1 to 12/15 (or even a 12/20) comparison it would show a lot more 'nones'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Who’s having delusions of grandeur? Is it Will? Or is it Scott? Or is it Brooklyn 99? They’ve been factual and informative I haven’t seen one person besides George, say anything other than, “The pattern looks very good for about mid month.” And that the “modeling will have issues in an extremely blocky regime, so get ready for a lot of volatility..especially on OP runs.” So if that’s Delusions of Grandeur, that’s news to me. There ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Cutters and rumors of cutters . And we don’t mean Coors Cutters . 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Who’s having delusions of grandeur? Is it Will? Or is it Scott? Or is it Brooklyn 99? They’ve been factual and informative I haven’t seen one person besides George, say anything other than, “The pattern looks very good for about mid month.” And that the “modeling will have issues in an extremely blocky regime, so get ready for a lot of volatility..especially on OP runs.” So if that’s Delusions of Grandeur, that’s news to me. 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Heavy heavy snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, moneypitmike said: December's a long month. I bet if you did a 12/1 to 12/15 (or even a 12/20) comparison it would show a lot more 'nones'. Hence the whole climatological thing…as we move deeper into the month lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Who’s having delusions of grandeur? Is it Will? Or is it Scott? Or is it Brooklyn 99? They’ve been factual and informative I haven’t seen one person besides George, say anything other than, “The pattern looks very good for about mid month.” And that the “modeling will have issues in an extremely blocky regime, so get ready for a lot of volatility..especially on OP runs.” So if that’s Delusions of Grandeur, that’s news to me. Even Forky stated the pattern looked loaded . This might be the case of the models not grasping the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Even Forky stated the pattern looked loaded . This might be the case of the models not grasping the change. And we said the minute that was posted how it was the kiss of death 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 06z GEFS looked more like EPS than 00z GEFS. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 GEFs has I think been better in pacific but has been waffling. I still think this favors interior and could be a fun pattern for them. I think coastal areas may have to wait a bit. We’ll see. Some models really have strong HP nosing in and have been hinting at coastal snow too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Pretty clear that we’re fighting that SE ridge a bit more than previously progged in the Dec 8-12 timeframe but that doesn’t mean we can’t snow in that period…it will just be a little harder. Need to time things pretty well and latitude will help. I still have no qualms about beyond that. It’s hard to get the pattern looking a whole lot better than both EPS and 06z GEFS in the long range. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 06z gfs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GEFs has I think been better in pacific but has been waffling. I still think this favors interior and could be a fun pattern for them. I think coastal areas may have to wait a bit. We’ll see. Some models really have strong HP nosing in and have been hinting at coastal snow too. Seems like the tropical forcing becomes a bit more favorable in the PAC after the 14th or so. Esp on GEFS….EPS seems like it keeps tropical forcing really weak which is prob why it’s a bit less hostile in the PAC in that Dec 11-14 time period than GFS suite has been. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Seems like the tropical forcing becomes a bit more favorable in the PAC after the 14th or so. Esp on GEFS….EPS seems like it keeps tropical forcing really weak which is prob why it’s a bit less hostile in the PAC in that Dec 11-14 time period than GFS suite has been. Yeah a bit more persistent-PNA/SE ridge. But regardless I do think mid month and beyond look pretty good and less shaky than the first half has looked. I’ve heard that line from many. I wouldn’t overlook that time around the 12th either. I feel like many ate pissed it’s not showing snow but every op run has been different. I wouldn’t write it off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 All along it’s been fair to point out potential problems. Jerry was the only one that agreed lol. But that SE ridge is damn stubborn and going to dominate this winter. The Pacific is chaotic and after that block forms the available cold source is not very deep. Just some issues and guidance slowly trending less optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Even Forky stated the pattern looked loaded . This might be the case of the models not grasping the change. Forkys right about as much as a broken clock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Forkys right about as much as a broken clock. He hates winter so when he says winter is coming , watch out. Earthlight was also pretty pumped up also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: All along it’s been fair to point out potential problems. Jerry was the only one that agreed lol. But that SE ridge is damn stubborn and going to dominate this winter. The Pacific is chaotic and after that block forms the available cold source is not very deep. Just some issues and guidance slowly trending less optimistic. You’re in the mountains of Vermont. You’ll be fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah a bit more persistent-PNA/SE ridge. But regardless I do think mid month and beyond look pretty good and less shaky than the first half has looked. I’ve heard that line from many. I wouldn’t overlook that time around the 12th either. I feel like many ate pissed it’s not showing snow but every op run has been different. I wouldn’t write it off. Yeah for sure. 12/12 still has plenty of ensemble support. I wouldn’t even write off 12/9 yet for something lighter but it obviously needs some things to line up. It’s nice to have things look like they are improving for once as we head closer to the holidays rather than getting worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You’re in the mountains of Vermont. You’ll be fine. Seriously They don't need a good pattern up there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 For those of us who love high pressure, this prog would be 2mbs from tying the global record.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 SE ridge will keep the -NAO in check a bit, The battleground areas should cash in away from the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You’re in the mountains of Vermont. You’ll be fine. This type of pattern won’t even save me. That southeast ridge is stronger and more persistent than anyone is giving credit for. This is a rains to Maine pattern for the next three weeks. December will come in well above normal temp wise and below normal snow. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, greenmtnwx said: This type of pattern won’t even save me. That southeast ridge is more Persistent and strong than anyone is giving a credit for. This is a rains to Maine pattern for the next three weeks. December will come in we’ll above normal temp wise and below normal snow. Just sit back, hop on that nice rocker in the cabin and relax. You’ll get yours. This isn’t last year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Here’s EPS for 12/12-13. You can see plenty of members hanging out in decent spots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He hates winter so when he says winter is coming , watch out. Earthlight was also pretty pumped up also What are their latest thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just sit back, hop on that nice rocker in the cabin and relax. You’ll get yours. This isn’t last year. Yeah I wouldn’t be sweating at elevation in Vermont. Dec 7-8 may come in mild/rainy but I’d be pretty pumped for the look beyond that. Never any guarantees (remember the monster cutter on 12/12/10?), but someone or many will probably do pretty well this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: This type of pattern won’t even save me. That southeast ridge is stronger and more persistent than anyone is giving credit for. This is a rains to Maine pattern for the next three weeks. December will come in well above normal temp wise and below normal snow. Did you try the new honduras especial this morning? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 18 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Press 1 if a model run has caused you to dangle your leg over the Tobin, press 2 to Hear reasons why nothing has changed and things look better than ever , press 3 to speak to dr tip regarding a script , press 4 if the children of your family know “Not to bother daddy during model runs or if they show a torch” press 5 if your from NYC south to the Mid Atlantic - we don’t have much hope for you We have added a couple more lines for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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