Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who’s having delusions of grandeur?  Is it Will? Or is it Scott? Or is it Brooklyn 99? They’ve been factual and informative 
 

I haven’t seen one person besides George, say anything other than, “The pattern looks very good for about mid month.”  And that the “modeling will have issues in an extremely blocky regime, so get ready for a lot of volatility..especially on OP runs.”   So if that’s Delusions of Grandeur, that’s news to me. 

There ya go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cutters and rumors of cutters . And we don’t mean Coors Cutters .

 

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who’s having delusions of grandeur?  Is it Will? Or is it Scott? Or is it Brooklyn 99? They’ve been factual and informative 
 

I haven’t seen one person besides George, say anything other than, “The pattern looks very good for about mid month.”  And that the “modeling will have issues in an extremely blocky regime, so get ready for a lot of volatility..especially on OP runs.”   So if that’s Delusions of Grandeur, that’s news to me. 

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy snows 

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who’s having delusions of grandeur?  Is it Will? Or is it Scott? Or is it Brooklyn 99? They’ve been factual and informative 
 

I haven’t seen one person besides George, say anything other than, “The pattern looks very good for about mid month.”  And that the “modeling will have issues in an extremely blocky regime, so get ready for a lot of volatility..especially on OP runs.”   So if that’s Delusions of Grandeur, that’s news to me. 

Even Forky stated the pattern looked loaded .

This might be the case of the models not grasping the change. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEFs has I think been better in pacific but has been waffling. I still think this favors interior and could be a fun pattern for them. I think coastal areas may have to wait a bit. We’ll see. Some models really have strong HP nosing in and have been hinting at coastal snow too.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty clear that we’re fighting that SE ridge a bit more than previously progged in the Dec 8-12 timeframe but that doesn’t mean we can’t snow in that period…it will just be a little harder. Need to time things pretty well and latitude will help. 
 

I still have no qualms about beyond that. It’s hard to get the pattern looking a whole lot better than both EPS and 06z GEFS in the long range. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFs has I think been better in pacific but has been waffling. I still think this favors interior and could be a fun pattern for them. I think coastal areas may have to wait a bit. We’ll see. Some models really have strong HP nosing in and have been hinting at coastal snow too.

Seems like the tropical forcing becomes a bit more favorable in the PAC after the 14th or so. Esp on GEFS….EPS seems like it keeps tropical forcing really weak which is prob why it’s a bit less hostile in the PAC in that Dec 11-14 time period than GFS suite has been. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like the tropical forcing becomes a bit more favorable in the PAC after the 14th or so. Esp on GEFS….EPS seems like it keeps tropical forcing really weak which is prob why it’s a bit less hostile in the PAC in that Dec 11-14 time period than GFS suite has been. 

Yeah a bit more persistent-PNA/SE ridge. But regardless I do think mid month and beyond look pretty good and less shaky than the first half has looked. I’ve heard that line from many.

I wouldn’t overlook that time around the 12th either. I feel like many ate pissed it’s not showing snow but every op run has been different. I wouldn’t write it off.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All along it’s been fair to point out potential problems. Jerry was the only one that agreed lol. But that SE ridge is damn stubborn and going to dominate this winter. The Pacific is chaotic and after that block forms the available cold source is not very deep. Just some issues and guidance slowly trending less optimistic. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

All along it’s been fair to point out potential problems. Jerry was the only one that agreed lol. But that SE ridge is damn stubborn and going to dominate this winter. The Pacific is chaotic and after that block forms the available cold source is not very deep. Just some issues and guidance slowly trending less optimistic. 

You’re in the mountains of Vermont. You’ll be fine.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah a bit more persistent-PNA/SE ridge. But regardless I do think mid month and beyond look pretty good and less shaky than the first half has looked. I’ve heard that line from many.

I wouldn’t overlook that time around the 12th either. I feel like many ate pissed it’s not showing snow but every op run has been different. I wouldn’t write it off.

Yeah for sure. 12/12 still has plenty of ensemble support. I wouldn’t even write off 12/9 yet for something lighter but it obviously needs some things to line up. 
 

It’s nice to have things look like they are improving for once as we head closer to the holidays rather than getting worse. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re in the mountains of Vermont. You’ll be fine.

This type of pattern won’t even save me. That southeast ridge is stronger and more persistent than anyone is giving credit for. This is a rains to Maine pattern for the next three weeks. December will come in well above normal temp wise and below normal snow. 

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

This type of pattern won’t even save me. That southeast ridge is more Persistent and strong than anyone is giving a credit for. This is a rains to Maine pattern for the next three weeks. December will come in we’ll above normal temp wise and below normal snow. 

Just sit back, hop on that nice rocker in the cabin and relax. You’ll get yours. This isn’t last year. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Just sit back, hop on that nice rocker in the cabin and relax. You’ll get yours. This isn’t last year. 

Yeah I wouldn’t be sweating at elevation in Vermont. 
 

Dec 7-8 may come in mild/rainy but I’d be pretty pumped for the look beyond that.  Never any guarantees (remember the monster cutter on 12/12/10?), but someone or many will probably do pretty well this month. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This type of pattern won’t even save me. That southeast ridge is stronger and more persistent than anyone is giving credit for. This is a rains to Maine pattern for the next three weeks. December will come in well above normal temp wise and below normal snow. 

Did you try the new honduras especial this morning?

image.png

  • Like 1
  • Haha 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Press 1 if a model run has caused you to dangle your leg over the Tobin, press 2 to Hear reasons why nothing has changed and things look better than ever , press 3 to speak to dr tip regarding a script , press 4 if the children of your family know “Not to bother daddy during model runs or if they show a torch” press 5 if your from NYC south to the Mid Atlantic - we don’t have much hope for you 

We have added a couple more lines for the weekend

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...