December 2022 Obs/Disc

[512high]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Still a few inches on the ground here. Stuff had sticking power with 5” SWE in my core sample. We had 40s and 50s for almost 2 weeks straight. Had snow on ground from Nov 16-today. I’m a snowfall rates guy so dont really care about snow depth unless it’s extreme 3’+. It snowed a few hours after this, but this was close to the max depth. 

Just incredible ! 

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Still a few inches on the ground here. Stuff had sticking power with 5” SWE in my core sample. We had 40s and 50s for almost 2 weeks straight. Had snow on ground from Nov 16-today. I’m a snowfall rates guy so dont really care about snow depth unless it’s extreme 3’+. It snowed a few hours after this, but this was close to the max depth. 

 

29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Highest I saw was 5.5” QPF

Seriously, some of the best days of my life happened in the period between that chase and Thanksgiving weekend. I’m still in awe of what I saw. 

Hopefully I can get a Feb ‘13 level storm imby this winter. 

 

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Still a few inches on the ground here. Stuff had sticking power with 5” SWE in my core sample. We had 40s and 50s for almost 2 weeks straight. Had snow on ground from Nov 16-today. I’m a snowfall rates guy so dont really care about snow depth unless it’s extreme 3’+. It snowed a few hours after this, but this was close to the max depth. 

that's just insane " and to think only a small area if it trains right will see that and 30miles away hardly anything, my uncle lives just SW of buffalo I think Williamsport or burg something like that, one year I remember he got like 4-5'... this kind of event seems to happen like once a decade, I mean really large totals, I know it happens every year but not like that, no?

[BuffaloWeather]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Seriously, some of the best days of my life happened in the period between that chase and Thanksgiving weekend. I’m still in awe of what I saw. 

Hopefully I can get a Feb ‘13 level storm imby this winter. 

 

my socials went nuts, over 20 million impressions between youtube and twitter, I was debating on what event I liked more between 2014 and 2022. 2014 had whiteouts like I've never seen with the higher winds and 2022 had nonstop thundersnow. They are my 1a/1b at top above every other event.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

that's just insane " and to think only a small area if it trains right will see that and 30miles away hardly anything, my uncle lives just SW of buffalo I think Williamsport or burg something like that, one year I remember he got like 4-5'... this kind of event seems to happen like once a decade, I mean really large totals, I know it happens every year but not like that, no?

To me it’s about the fact that a climo favored area (BUF/south towns and Tug Hill/Ontario zone) can realistically get a four foot snowstorm once a decade is mind-boggling.

Folks can point to snow retention to try to minimize it, but the short term volume of snow that falls in these bands is super high-end.  Almost Sierra/western level snowfalls. It will melt fast given more humid mild temperatures (45/35 vs 45/3 air masses like out west), but they are high end totals.  True society stopping events.

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

that's just insane " and to think only a small area if it trains right will see that and 30miles away hardly anything, my uncle lives just SW of buffalo I think Williamsport or burg something like that, one year I remember he got like 4-5'... this kind of event seems to happen like once a decade, I mean really large totals, I know it happens every year but not like that, no?

This event was quite widespread. The low QPF LES events usually happen early on in the year when the lakes are warm Nov/December primarily. The BUF NWS has a nice page that keeps track of LES events. I probably average a 2 footer + per year.  I don't live in the snowbelt, just a southern suburb. South of here in the snowbelts average 200"+ and off the tug 300"+. I'd say almost every year we get a 3-4'+ event off Erie and off Ontario the potential is greater.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe like this?

 

Just 30 years ago this happened...One of the best live clips ever.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To me it’s about the fact that a climo favored area (BUF/south towns and Tug Hill/Ontario zone) can realistically get a four foot snowstorm once a decade is mind-boggling.

Folks can point to snow retention to try to minimize it, but the short term volume of snow that falls in these bands is super high-end.  Almost Sierra/western level snowfalls. It will melt fast given more humid mild temperatures (45/35 vs 45/3 air masses like out west), but they are high end totals.  True society stopping events.

Had 2 free PTO days from work. In 2014 I had a full week off paid. I love these events lol.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This event was quite widespread. The low QPF LES events usually happen early on in the year when the lakes are warm Nov/December primarily. The BUF NWS has a nice page that keeps track of LES events. I probably average a 2 footer + per year.  I don't live in the snowbelt, just a southern suburb. South of here in the snowbelts average 200"+ and off the tug 300"+.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive

Every single poster in this forum would love to average a 24” or greater event per year.  I don’t care what anyone says about retention.  If they can see 24”< in their backyard in one storm with frequency, they’d take it.  I would.

[George001]

Canadian is gearing up a Miller B at the end of the run

[George001]

I think the new upgrade made the gfs worse. It used to be ok a few years ago, but with every upgrade it gets worse and worse. The gap between the Euro and GFS has only widened, and the Canadian surpassed the GFS a few years ago as well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

I think the new upgrade made the gfs worse. It used to be ok a few years ago, but with every upgrade it gets worse and worse. The gap between the Euro and GFS has only widened, and the Canadian surpassed the GFS a few years ago as well. 

GFS is better than the CMC, dude

[WinterWolf]

Ya, George is a little tweaked it seems. Although since a couple days ago, the GFS does seem off???  But the CMC is a garbage model most all the time. 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I think the new upgrade made the gfs worse. It used to be ok a few years ago, but with every upgrade it gets worse and worse. The gap between the Euro and GFS has only widened, and the Canadian surpassed the GFS a few years ago as well. 

I saw a post somewhere earlier saying it did.. but I'm sure it beats the Canadian 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I saw a post somewhere earlier saying it did.. but I'm sure it beats the Canadian 

The gap between the euro and gfs has closed. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Here’s where we stand. As others have said. EPS looks great and all but the GEFS has been leading the way in the Pacific .. So I take the EPS day 10-15 with a grain of salt. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

No shortage of rain on the 6z gfs 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No shortage of rain on the 6z gfs 

Have a very wet holidays

[kdxken]

Stein:

NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation forecast continues to be in big negative territory. -NAO often increases the odds of cold and snowy weather in the northeast, but not always. Presently I have no confidence in wintry weather here anytime in the short-medium range forecast.

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Here’s where we stand. As others have said. EPS looks great and all but the GFS has been leading the way in the Pacific .. So I take the EPS day 10-15 with a grain of salt. 

Great post. That Aleutian ridge could trend stronger as we get closer and really tank the pna. Plus where are we getting the cold air from?? It’s on the other side of the globe on those maps 

[Damage In Tolland]

Heavy heavy snows 

[Modfan2]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy snows 

Heavy IPA’s at the GTG as each model run drops!

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Heavy IPA’s at the GTG as each model run drops!

Cutters and rumors of cutters . And we don’t mean Coors Cutters .

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Here’s where we stand. As others have said. EPS looks great and all but the GEFS has been leading the way in the Pacific .. So I take the EPS day 10-15 with a grain of salt. 

True but the eps has been steady with showing a good pattern while the gfs and gefs has been going back and forth. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

True but the eps has been steady with showing a good pattern while the gfs and gefs has been going back and forth. 

Ya, I was thinking the same thing…but he’s the MET, so maybe I’m not seeing what he is?  

[moneypitmike]

Yeah---if nothing else there may be no more "we're still xxx" below normal for the year" whining.  Who the f*ck cares?

[Baroclinic Zone]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cutters and rumors of cutters . And we don’t mean Coors Cutters .

Heavy heavy delusions of grandeur

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Heavy heavy delusions of grandeur

Who’s having delusions of grandeur?  Is it Will? Or is it Scott? Or is it Brooklyn 99? They’ve been factual and informative 
 

I haven’t seen one person besides George, say anything other than, “The pattern looks very good for about mid month.”  And that the “modeling will have issues in an extremely blocky regime, so get ready for a lot of volatility..especially on OP runs.”   So if that’s Delusions of Grandeur, that’s news to me. 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I was thinking the same thing…but he’s the MET, so maybe I’m not seeing what he is?  

I think people are worried about the pac. GfS and Gefs have been showing a crappy pac.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I think people are worried about the pac. GfS and Gefs have been showing a crappy pac.

Could be true…nobody really knows. Could be not true too