December 2022 Obs/Disc

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Block doing it's dirty work at the end of the run....bigger storm potential. 

With regards to next week, I would assume, until the system on the 6th is well modeled, everything behind it is going to be chaos.....

Nice little nuke on the Euro for Dec 11....hugs a little too close for snow except interior CNE/NNE, but that type of detail is pretty irrelevant this far out.

Gonna have to be patient for solutions to stabilize for Dec 9th. Prob at least another 2-3 days. And for any threats beyond that, it will take longer to get consistent solutions. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little nuke on the Euro for Dec 11....hugs a little too close for snow except interior CNE/NNE, but that type of detail is pretty irrelevant this far out.

Gonna have to be patient for solutions to stabilize for Dec 9th. Prob at least another 2-3 days. And for any threats beyond that, it will take longer to get consistent solutions. 

That storm tucks right up into my backyard....Honestly have seen far too many of those in the past few years, but no worries at this point.

As far as weather "watching", I prefer times when modeling is chaos, while it can be gut wretching to watch. It is the thrill of the "chase", right up until the last few hours. Positive busts are preferred, but weather forecasting would probably be boring if we knew exactly what was going to happen 10 days , even 5 days out.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

......can't make people "listen"......some will poo-poo any and all dissenting views on the pattern/winter.

i mean, most of the dissenting views that i’ve seen on this forum and others are just “well, this might not happen because i don’t think it will” with no actual analysis besides Murphy’s Law

like a weird weather defensive coping mechanism

[ariof]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little nuke on the Euro for Dec 11....hugs a little too close for snow except interior CNE/NNE, but that type of detail is pretty irrelevant this far out.

Gonna have to be patient for solutions to stabilize for Dec 9th. Prob at least another 2-3 days. And for any threats beyond that, it will take longer to get consistent solutions. 

A few ticks south and it looks something like the mid-Dec 2020 storm that dropped 44" over some CNE folks.

Of course, a week later was the mega-grinch …

[STILL N OF PIKE]

A lot of folks have a lot riding on this pattern emotionally , we may want to set up some phone numbers / call centers for folks over the coming Weeks

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, ariof said:

A few ticks south and it looks something like the mid-Dec 2020 storm that dropped 44" over some CNE folks.

Of course, a week later was the mega-grinch …

Have continually thought about that storm being a good analog. Maybe this time I won't be on my near death bed in the hospital 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A lot of folks have a lot riding on this pattern emotionally , we may want to set up some phone numbers / call centers for folks over the coming Weeks

 800meme1717

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I chased that storm looking for the mid level goodies in NY state and missed badly , needed to head to BGM 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A lot of folks have a lot riding on this pattern emotionally , we may want to set up some phone numbers / call centers for folks over the coming Weeks

lol I basically had one setup in the Mid-Atlantic for half a decade. All time melts.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 800meme1717

Press 1 if a model run has caused you to dangle your leg over the Tobin, press 2 to Hear reasons why nothing has changed and things look better than ever , press 3 to speak to dr tip regarding a script , press 4 if the children of your family know “Not to bother daddy during model runs or if they show a torch” press 5 if your from NYC south to the Mid Atlantic - we don’t have much hope for you 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty stormy look on the EPS around the 12th give or take. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty stormy look on the EPS around the 12th give or take. 

A lot of members with a low nearby on that threat. Timing differs as well...a lot of members have something 12/12 but some are more like 12/13 or even 12/14.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty stormy look on the EPS around the 12th give or take. 

1717 says yea we tried to tell them lol 

[ORH_wxman]

End of EPS run going into the final week before Xmas....that is a really nice look. Hopefully we can pull off multiple threats.

 

[Heisy]

A lot of members with a low nearby on that threat. Timing differs as well...a lot of members have something 12/12 but some are more like 12/13 or even 12/14.

Also, that strong wave at the end of euro run would also potentially lock in confluence for next wave. Show goes on. With this anomalous block there will be lots of potential for a miller B nuke. Look at the 12z control for entertainment purposes. Ignore the details


.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

End of EPS run going into the final week before Xmas....that is a really nice look. Hopefully we can pull off multiple threats.

 

i thought winter was canceled

i agree though. you have the strong WB -NAO and a stout -EPO to provide the cold air as well as vigorous NS shortwaves… the weakness off of S CA is also indicative of the STJ being somewhat active

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Heisy, are you still in philly area , you chasing anything potentially this year 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i thought winter was canceled

i agree though. you have the strong WB -NAO and a stout -EPO to provide the cold air as well as vigorous NS shortwaves… the weakness off of S CA is also indicative of the STJ being somewhat active

I could see plenty of forum meltdowns happening if we don't get anything by 12/13....but hard to believe we'd keep whiffing if the end of the EPS has any clue at all. We'd keep rolling the dice in a loaded pattern.

That's the biggest difference between a good pattern and a bad one or even neutral one when it comes specifically to snow threats. In a bad pattern, you probably have one shot in a 2-3 week span to get something to line up and if you miss it, too bad and you're screwed for a long while. In a good pattern, you have 4 or 5 shots....so if you miss one, you don't have to feel like you just screwed up your one shot to get something. You get to roll the dice several more times.

 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i thought winter was canceled

i agree though. you have the strong WB -NAO and a stout -EPO to provide the cold air as well as vigorous NS shortwaves… the weakness off of S CA is also indicative of the STJ being somewhat active

Well if you listen to a few…they will say we tried to tell ‘em…?  I don’t get it.  But they’ll jump right on the band wagon when it sets in. 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1717 says yea we tried to tell them lol 

Ya, I’m not getting why he continually Poo poos everything? 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

for what? two days around the 8th? 

Is Q Omeganon at it again?

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I could see plenty of forum meltdowns happening if we don't get anything by 12/13....but hard to believe we'd keep whiffing if the end of the EPS has any clue at all. We'd keep rolling the dice in a loaded pattern.

That's the biggest difference between a good pattern and a bad one or even neutral one when it comes specifically to snow threats. In a bad pattern, you probably have one shot in a 2-3 week span to get something to line up and if you miss it, too bad and you're screwed for a long while. In a good pattern, you have 4 or 5 shots....so if you miss one, you don't have to feel like you just screwed up your one shot to get something. You get to roll the dice several more times.

 

If I may add a little to this… Similar logic: I don’t really even care if we miss an event in the first two weeks of December when we’re looking up the mt at an avalanche of possibilities - seasonally 

yeah some years are really really bad… They just don’t “avalanche” but point is there’s three months or possibly four to work things out  

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ariof said:

A few ticks south and it looks something like the mid-Dec 2020 storm that dropped 44" over some CNE folks.

Of course, a week later was the mega-grinch …

I think you mean the dropped 34 on Brian and 28 on me and 48 about 10 miles from here?  A week later it was gone, but it was fun to be in a period of 7/hr.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I’m not getting why he continually Poo poos everything? 

he hitched to the pope wagon. the one where pattern changes don't exist, even though we just had one. 

[J Paul Gordon]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Throw up some numbers 

ORH 78; BOS 54; PVD 48; BDL 56; CLT (Clinton lol) 65 same guess for BED

[Henry's Weather]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

End of EPS run going into the final week before Xmas....that is a really nice look. Hopefully we can pull off multiple threats.

 

Ooh, check out that contour signiture north of Alaska. That's some good cross-polar flow right?

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

he hitched to the pope wagon. the one where pattern changes don't exist, even though we just had one. 

That’s exactly it. And the wagon filled with green grass, and geese that are fighting with crows…cuz that’s a sign that the pattern didn’t and won’t change. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, J Paul Gordon said:

ORH 78; BOS 54; PVD 48; BDL 56; CLT (Clinton lol) 65 same guess for BED

Put it in the thread all stations plus your own. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there any snow left OTG in Buffalo?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little nuke on the Euro for Dec 11....hugs a little too close for snow except interior CNE/NNE, but that type of detail is pretty irrelevant this far out.

Gonna have to be patient for solutions to stabilize for Dec 9th. Prob at least another 2-3 days. And for any threats beyond that, it will take longer to get consistent solutions. 

just fyi ... the control run - which is code for George's basement I guess - has something of a historic nature D14 up the EC.   Establishes a pressure depth not seen in the PHL-NYC span in decades outside of the tropics, and maybe there too.   Down 963 I think but the resolution's a little mottled.  The mid level ( 500 mb) hgts core down 510 dm centered over Baltimore.   ...

It's doing that in a 'relaxed' mode of the NAO ( ) too ... ( wink is for everyone).   It's just that the relaxation is happening perhaps a 3-5 days sooner, hence 13.14.15 for a big dog.   I mean really big dog.  Talkin' St Bernard/bull mastiff hybrid got with Great Dane

It's D11-12 though... It's not a deterministic produce of course, but whatever they do in "controlling" the run, I would be curious how far they had to really push the input metrics to get to that solution.