December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think his post about melts was on point and would be poorly received , but he is my Dr so I maybe biased 

Although in my defense… I didn’t bring that up I was just responding to somebody else and like I said in that post it was tongue-in-cheek?

Hey man melt away …like I said melts our great entertainment; the more angry somebody is the funnier it is to watch them. Muah hahahaha

[Henry's Weather]

The CMC evolution is testament to the strange things that blocks do. Spooky.

[Hazey]

It’s way out there is La la land but this is what you want to see. None of that primary heading for James Bay while praying for a redeveloper to squirt underneath crap.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

It’s way out there is La la land but this is what you want to see. None of that primary heading for James Bay while praying for a redeveloper to squirt underneath crap.

That’s a piece of shit. 
you’re telling us that we should rather want to deal with the thread the needle paranoid anxiety attack…?

Man you got a dark heart

hahaha. Dude I’m totally kidding, but nah.  I’d like to see a slowing breaking wave underneath our latitude with a nice park high pressure north of Maine that’s what you want to look for

[BuildingScienceWx]

5 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Seems like the Winter 022-023 page is pretty much defunct.

I put this up in mid-November and I'm still feeling pretty good about it verifying overall. Don't ask for precise analogs; it's mostly just perception based on living here all my life and experience with torchy Novembers. Just for fun. Maybe a tad too AN for December but we'll see. Snowfall may not be so bad in between Lakes runners and big warmups. Maybe 2-4 AN  December with spells in the mid to upper fifties instead of sixties.

Guesses based on previous winters that start with a very warm November. Unscientific but probably more likely to pan out than the Old Farmers Almanac. 

Nov: 6-8 AN; Dec: 4-6 AN; Jan: 1-3 AN; Feb 5-8 AN; March 0-2 BN. In December we'll have some cold snowy outbreaks but a couple of multi-day spells of very high temps (generally low to mid-60s) will skew the month much above normal. The annual "grinch storm" is likely on the ticket. January will be closer to normal with a couple of inland runners with mild, rainy weather and maybe a coastal that will bring snow to much of the interior (and coast Boston northwards); February will be very mild and dry. Normal to below normal temps in March with significant snowfall throughout the region except for the Cape and islands.

Ssshhhhh

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Seems like the Winter 022-023 page is pretty much defunct.

I put this up in mid-November and I'm still feeling pretty good about it verifying overall. Don't ask for precise analogs; it's mostly just perception based on living here all my life and experience with torchy Novembers. Just for fun. Maybe a tad too AN for December but we'll see. Snowfall may not be so bad in between Lakes runners and big warmups. Maybe 2-4 AN  December with spells in the mid to upper fifties instead of sixties.

Guesses based on previous winters that start with a very warm November. Unscientific but probably more likely to pan out than the Old Farmers Almanac. 

Nov: 6-8 AN; Dec: 4-6 AN; Jan: 1-3 AN; Feb 5-8 AN; March 0-2 BN. In December we'll have some cold snowy outbreaks but a couple of multi-day spells of very high temps (generally low to mid-60s) will skew the month much above normal. The annual "grinch storm" is likely on the ticket. January will be closer to normal with a couple of inland runners with mild, rainy weather and maybe a coastal that will bring snow to much of the interior (and coast Boston northwards); February will be very mild and dry. Normal to below normal temps in March with significant snowfall throughout the region except for the Cape and islands.

Throw up some numbers 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ugh....that's really annoying. Can't wait for the forecasters to say "we're adjusting for lower frozen over the interior of New England because the super ensemble blend has temps largely above freezing by midday".....and completely ignore there's a 1035 or 1040 high N of Caribou and all those models feeding into their ensemble mean that erode the lower level cold are actually just dead wrong and most local forecasters hedge for them being wrong in those types of setups.

The irony is that 95% of the time the super ensemble blend work. It's those high leverage situations where those models shit the bed for the event and you need to human input. It's definitely pervasive in private and NWS.  Some call it a human over the loop...but you need that to help insert local climo knowledge/experience. Just hope the meteorologist over the loop is good.   

[SnoSki14]

Maybe time to close the blinds then til mid December

Strong Atlantic blocking with a bad pacific isn't good though. That causes SE ridge & blocking up north to link up. 

Don't like seeing the GEFS keep delaying the favorable pattern.

[OceanStWx]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ugh....that's really annoying. Can't wait for the forecasters to say "we're adjusting for lower frozen over the interior of New England because the super ensemble blend has temps largely above freezing by midday".....and completely ignore there's a 1035 or 1040 high N of Caribou and all those models feeding into their ensemble mean that erode the lower level cold are actually just dead wrong and most local forecasters hedge for them being wrong in those types of setups.

 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The irony is that 95% of the time the super ensemble blend work. It's those high leverage situations where those models shit the bed for the event and you need to human input. It's definitely pervasive in private and NWS.  Some call it a human over the loop...but you need that to help insert local climo knowledge/experience. Just hope the meteorologist over the loop is good.   

The biggest problem I see with it, is when the super ensemble spits out QPF that is unreasonable. Can we get WPC to make the requisite edits to their national forecast to fix what happens downstream in our local area.

Like when the dry slot moves in and models habitually spit out too much QPF. Now in order to get the forecast right locally I have to do something unscientific with snow/ice ratios in certain areas to make sure I don't get wild storm totals.

Or when QPF goes wild in WAA and I have give Dendrite 40:1 ratios to capture where I think deformation will actually drop a bunch of snow. We are going to produce snow character maps now, so I don't need people thinking they can leaf blow their driveway when it will be more standard ratio stuff but a machine spit out the super ensemble. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

The biggest problem I see with it, is when the super ensemble spits out QPF that is unreasonable. Can we get WPC to make the requisite edits to their national forecast to fix what happens downstream in our local area.

Like when the dry slot moves in and models habitually spit out too much QPF. Now in order to get the forecast right locally I have to do something unscientific with snow/ice ratios in certain areas to make sure I don't get wild storm totals.

Or when QPF goes wild in WAA and I have give Dendrite 40:1 ratios to capture where I think deformation will actually drop a bunch of snow. We are going to produce snow character maps now, so I don't need people thinking they can leaf blow their driveway when it will be more standard ratio stuff but a machine spit out the super ensemble. 

  Yep, I hear you. Get Weiss on that. 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe time to close the blinds then til mid December

Strong Atlantic blocking with a bad pacific isn't good though. That causes SE ridge & blocking up north to link up. 

Don't like seeing the GEFS keep delaying the favorable pattern.

it isn’t really delayed though… it still shows up around the 12-14th which has been the window for a while now

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  Yep, I hear you. Get Weiss on that. 

I wish Josh did winter QPF, he's definitely more of a collaborator. But he's just the snow desk. 

[UnitedWx]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe time to close the blinds then til mid December

Strong Atlantic blocking with a bad pacific isn't good though. That causes SE ridge & blocking up north to link up. 

Don't like seeing the GEFS keep delaying the favorable pattern.

You can't delay something that doesn't exist yet... Patience is needed

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it isn’t really delayed though… it still shows up around the 12-14th which has been the window for a while now

This may seem kind a bush but… This is one of those situation‘s were the colorization of these charts is a value add.

If one looks at that region immediately astride the Delmarva there, notice how it’s slightly darker than south of Nova Scotia? If we loop through these three days in question you can see that darkens and then lightens as comes back out in time.  So that suggests that the mean or blend may be deepening more than just the heights in that region - it is implied possibility. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe time to close the blinds then til mid December

Strong Atlantic blocking with a bad pacific isn't good though. That causes SE ridge & blocking up north to link up. 

Don't like seeing the GEFS keep delaying the favorable pattern.

People who have been posting caution flags have been ridiculed for a week now. We tried to tell ‘em 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah man the number of individual GEF members that are flat out showing a strong East Coast system presentation between the 12th and the 15th has increased over the last couple of cycles in the 12z series. 

unfortunately… 10 days is vastly too early to start a thread to put it nicely. That would be interesting though wouldn’t it? If we actually do come up with a decent event in that timeframe – it would be interesting because there’s basically no predictive model skill during this recent time, yet we’ve been watching that for a long time.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

People who have been posting caution flags have been ridiculed for a week now. We tried to tell ‘em 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don’t think anybody required caution flags in the first place so not sure where that’s coming from?

[MJO812]

No gfs here

[SnoSki14]

Euro looks so much better with the blocking than GFS. 

[ORH_wxman]

That's prob gonna be a squash job on the Euro for Dec 9.

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's prob gonna be a squash job on the Euro for Dec 9.

Great...cue the suppression depression posts why don't you

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Great...cue the suppression depression threads why don't you

Nobody should get too invested in that threat....there's a chance there, but it needs a lot of things to go right. If it shows something interesting inside of 120 hours for multiple runs, then maybe it can be taken more seriously.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Great...cue the suppression depression threads why don't you

Yeah we’ll … it’s always been a possibility with this.  

I realize you’re kidding but the laws of physics and nature don’t become irrelevant – the NAO will tend to relax at some point - it won’t sit there like a brick in the atmosphere. So even if that one compresses it us not likely they all will thereafter

but then again, there’s no guarantee the NAO will even be a factor well out in time. The ensemble suggested it will last a while though. Point is it will pulse in and out.  The good systems will happen when it’s in d(NAO)

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody should get too invested in that threat....there's a chance there, but it needs a lot of things to go right. If it shows something interesting inside of 120 hours for multiple runs, then maybe it can be taken more seriously.

any chance that after the storm on the 6th cuts/drapes a front over the region, we end up with a stalled out boundary over the area? Hopefully at the point we get a little press to the south and we all end up on the colder side. Even set up some freezing rain or sleet with low level cold air?

[brooklynwx99]

49 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

EPS is consistent in showing a massive linked ridge from the gulf coast into Greenland

for what? two days around the 8th? 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

any chance that after the storm on the 6th cuts/drapes a front over the region, we end up with a stalled out boundary over the area? Hopefully at the point we get a little press to the south and we all end up on the colder side. Even set up some freezing rain or sleet with low level cold air?

Yes that is def a possibility....Euro almost shows that to some extent....we end up rotting north of the boundary and there's ocean effect (prob synoptically enhanced) on east flow for like 36-48 hours....prob just showers on coast but maybe cold enough for snow just inland. Marginal saturation above 850 but that type of detail isn't worth looking at yet. That's just a literal train wreck in the Atlantic backing up the flow.

 

Euro looks like it's cooking up a bigger event though for Dec 11.

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah we’ll … it’s always been a possibility with this.  

I realize you’re kidding but the laws of physics and nature don’t become irrelevant – the NAO will tend to relax at some point - it won’t sit there like a brick in the atmosphere. So even if that one compresses it us not likely they all will thereafter

but then again, there’s no guarantee the NAO will even be a factor well out in time. The ensemble suggested it will last a while though. Point is it will pulse in and out.  The good systems will happen when it’s in d(NAO)

Yes that, and the fact that we don't even know what we'll really get as far as blocking. It's entertaining to see some worrying about it breaking down... and we don't even know what we're working with yet. And for the record, I find the melts fascinating. Always good entertainment

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes that is def a possibility....Euro almost shows that to some extent....we end up rotting north of the boundary and there's ocean effect (prob synoptically enhanced) on east flow for like 36-48 hours....prob just showers on coast but maybe cold enough for snow just inland. Marginal saturation above 850 but that type of detail isn't worth looking at yet. That's just a literal train wreck in the Atlantic backing up the flow.

 

Euro looks like it's cooking up a bigger even though for Dec 11.

Block doing it's dirty work at the end of the run....bigger storm potential. 

With regards to next week, I would assume, until the system on the 6th is well modeled, everything behind it is going to be chaos.....

[Great Snow 1717]

46 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

People who have been posting caution flags have been ridiculed for a week now. We tried to tell ‘em 

......can't make people "listen"......some will poo-poo any and all dissenting views on the pattern/winter.