December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The 9-10 storm is a cutter on gfs

Mmm I would not sweat that solution at all seriously don’t. 

You can clearly see the stress of the NAO pattern structure forcing that back south as it tries to clear our longitude just like the 0Z and the 6Z predecessor solutions did too. And all of that period of time is going to be subjected to that kind of forcing - the correction vector still points South. Until there is a coherent reason to switch the direction of that vector I really see taking something significantly west of New England through the great lakes as being very dubious

[UnitedWx]

52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Why are people having meltdowns? I'm confused. Do people think a storm has to be on a model at D10 and then expect the storm to hold on each subsequent run? Most of out storms don't even really become evident on the SLP graphics until like 4-5 days out. 

I think some need to keep in mind that while everything looks great in terms of pattern evolution we're still dealing with a pretty fast flow aloft. Those fast flows are a mess for guidance, especially when there are so many moving pieces (shortwaves). 

We're not going to see a scenario where models have a cyclogenesis bomb moving up the coast at D10 and having that be a consistent run-to-run solution. 

Of course not, but some here seem to expect it.. or think it's normal. In all the years I've been observing SNE weather, one thing I've learned is to never expect any meaningful snow before Christmas. If it happens great, but it isn't normal. Most of the very best winters I've ever seen started after Christmas time in general.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep congrats New England 

Congrats Ski resorts  . Yes please 

[MJO812]

Cmc is way south with that same storm lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah man that’s got road blocked turning into a blue snow scenario written all over it

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is way south with that same storm lol

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah man that’s got road blocked turning into a blue snow scenario written all over it

Yah seems like we would ironically benefit on this shortwave from the trough to Tijuana , all else being equal 

[brooklynwx99]

some of you guys need to stop reading into all of these OP runs… this pattern is so amplified and it’s going to wreak havoc on NWP. even the ensembles (especially the GEFS/GEPS) are inconsistent

and it’s also kinda been established by a few here that anything that happens before the 12-15th is gravy, so take what you can get beforehand, but don’t expect anything either

[Typhoon Tip]

In totality this GFS solution is kind of wonky looking because you don’t typically take cyclones on an anti cyclonic trajectory and have them do what that’s doing

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Congrats Ski resorts  . Yes please 

I think some of use would be okay, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

some of you guys need to stop reading into all of these OP runs… this pattern is so amplified and it’s going to wreak havoc on NWP 

and it’s also kinda been established by a few here that anything that happens before the 12-15th is gravy, so take what you can get beforehand, but don’t expect anything either

People are into the operational shows not for substantive analysis, they’re into it for the cinema/thrillseeking. Haha. 

[weatherwiz]

End of the week certainly is a bit intriguing (only b/c something is being shown) but there are a ton of features at play. First, any shortwave that emerges could easily get sheared out then you have also the HP sliding north of it and this feature in SE Canada which could be a pivotal piece

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM actually tries to retro the Dec 7-8 storm back into us

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

some of you guys need to stop reading into all of these OP runs… this pattern is so amplified and it’s going to wreak havoc on NWP. even the ensembles (especially the GEFS/GEPS) are inconsistent

and it’s also kinda been established by a few here that anything that happens before the 12-15th is gravy, so take what you can get beforehand, but don’t expect anything either

Yea, this is why I just made a general post describing the pattern and the inherent potential that comes along with it. But I won't post anything about specific threats until sometime next week at the earliest.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Again, the developing pattern had 3 phases to it:

1. The block actually evolving and setting up shop....that is Dec 3-7. We see a couple milder systems during this time.

2. Block is established, but we are fighting the SE ridge before it retrogrades. This is Dec 8-12....we can sneak a wintry system in this period but it requires good timing and it's dealing with the gradient between the block and the SE ridge.

3. Block fully established but it has peaked in strength and SE ridge has retrograded further west allowing for more potential amplification of systems over the east. This is like 12/13 and beyond. This is the period that looks most favorable for larger systems.

this is an incredibly helpful guide to the big picture.  thanks!

[Typhoon Tip]

Having said that just compare the overnight day 8  9 and 10 of the operational GFS along the 40th parallel - that demonstrates what bad continuity looks like

there’s too much uncertainty as to how things are going to orient from the Pacific across the continent.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I also think that GFS is not a very good tool for assessing during blocking patterns.

I know the model’s made a lot of improvements over the last decade and it’s now perhaps competitive. However, I still at times sense a tendency for it to stretch the x-coordinate and be to progressive especially out in time. I also noticed that tends to accumulate too much colder Heights on the polar side of the ambient jet.  I think may be why in enhances the velocities out in time and is what caused that stretching to occur - suppositional.

Anyway if you’re in a blocking slowing pattern I think that the native bias, however vestigial exists in the Gfs it may be fighting against that.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah like Will said yesterday to… whomever that was, we’re going to have to probably rely on shorter duration lead time on these “threats” unfortunately. 

And in the meantime … Hope that the operational runs give us some fake cinema to methadone in the interim ha ha ha

[OceanStWx]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The bolded is very concerning IMHO. That is the model for taking out local wx knowledge and replacing it with cookie-cutter forecasting.....and winter wx is probably the best example of forecast skill degradation when not knowing local climo and terrain effects. I know we've talked in the past about how you see people who aren't familiar with ice storm climo in New England applying the plains idealized model and it usually will cause you to get the forecast exactly backwards here.

But even on snow/sleet events not knowing local climo hurts a lot. Esp WRT cold air damming in New England.

We're already seeing the QPF being taken away from us (which obviously makes getting the snow even harder when you don't control the primary input source). I think the biggest issue I have is that WPC's resources are small compared the size of the area they need to forecast for. The end result is leaning heavily on the super ensemble blend while sacrificing local details/knowledge. We've seen that even using an ensembled approach that the ensembles can make large swings. We cannot yo-yo that much in our public forecasts and have any kind of credibility. 

There isn't much that drives me more up the wall than "the model says this, so I'm adjusting like that". And that is largely what the super ensemble does, it's just a bit more robust.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’d like Tip to be able hikack NCEP model runs for a 24 hr period and just put folks on a terrific bi polar inducing roller coaster of Varying emotions and see who cracks loudest 

[qg_omega]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

some of you guys need to stop reading into all of these OP runs… this pattern is so amplified and it’s going to wreak havoc on NWP. even the ensembles (especially the GEFS/GEPS) are inconsistent

and it’s also kinda been established by a few here that anything that happens before the 12-15th is gravy, so take what you can get beforehand, but don’t expect anything either

EPS is consistent in showing a massive linked ridge from the gulf coast into Greenland

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We're already seeing the QPF being taken away from us (which obviously makes getting the snow even harder when you don't control the primary input source). I think the biggest issue I have is that WPC's resources are small compared the size of the area they need to forecast for. The end result is leaning heavily on the super ensemble blend while sacrificing local details/knowledge. We've seen that even using an ensembled approach that the ensembles can make large swings. We cannot yo-yo that much in our public forecasts and have any kind of credibility. 

There isn't much that drives me more up the wall than "the model says this, so I'm adjusting like that". And that is largely what the super ensemble does, it's just a bit more robust.

Ugh....that's really annoying. Can't wait for the forecasters to say "we're adjusting for lower frozen over the interior of New England because the super ensemble blend has temps largely above freezing by midday".....and completely ignore there's a 1035 or 1040 high N of Caribou and all those models feeding into their ensemble mean that erode the lower level cold are actually just dead wrong and most local forecasters hedge for them being wrong in those types of setups.

[mreaves]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep congrats New England 

The way god intended.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ugh....that's really annoying. Can't wait for the forecasters to say "we're adjusting for lower frozen over the interior of New England because the super ensemble blend has temps largely above freezing by midday".....and completely ignore there's a 1035 or 1040 high N of Caribou and all those models feeding into their ensemble mean that erode the lower level cold are actually just dead wrong and most local forecasters hedge for them being wrong in those types of setups.

A primitive version of that kind of “forecast system attempting to outthink the models” took place before the 1997 December 23 snow bomb. Remember the, at the time,  ETA model, was forecasting a thermal profile like -1+2+4 at Logan, 980 to sfc    

For some reason all the models had the surface temperature even in interior going above freezing and the entire event was also drastically under with QPF, BTW.  But as it were …it got 19-like cold at night and then suddenly right at dawn the clouds advanced all at once and we “cold capped” 

Not 1035 but there was like a 1028 Mbar high park ideally just north west of Maine.  Forecast from just 12hrs earlier wad 1-3” of glop ending as misery mist  

22” later, an event that will live on as the greatest short term debacle bust in the history of weather forecasting infamy, and that even includes the telegraph days.  I’d even put that over Galveston.  No just kidding …nothing beats Galveston but-

[SJonesWX]

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM actually tries to retro the Dec 7-8 storm back into us

George's weenie is trembling with excitement

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is why I just made a general post describing the pattern and the inherent potential that comes along with it. But I won't post anything about specific threats until sometime next week at the earliest.

Ever think Tip over thinks our posts? Psycho babble and all

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

George's weenie is trembling with excitement

That’s it’s base state 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ever think Tip.over thinks our posts? Psycho babble and all

I think his post about melts was on point and would be poorly received , but he is my Dr so I maybe biased 

[MJO812]

Ukie is suppressed for the 10th storm

[J Paul Gordon]

Seems like the Winter 022-023 page is pretty much defunct.

I put this up in mid-November and I'm still feeling pretty good about it verifying overall. Don't ask for precise analogs; it's mostly just perception based on living here all my life and experience with torchy Novembers. Just for fun. Maybe a tad too AN for December but we'll see. Snowfall may not be so bad in between Lakes runners and big warmups. Maybe 2-4 AN  December with spells in the mid to upper fifties instead of sixties.

Guesses based on previous winters that start with a very warm November. Unscientific but probably more likely to pan out than the Old Farmers Almanac. 

Nov: 6-8 AN; Dec: 4-6 AN; Jan: 1-3 AN; Feb 5-8 AN; March 0-2 BN. In December we'll have some cold snowy outbreaks but a couple of multi-day spells of very high temps (generally low to mid-60s) will skew the month much above normal. The annual "grinch storm" is likely on the ticket. January will be closer to normal with a couple of inland runners with mild, rainy weather and maybe a coastal that will bring snow to much of the interior (and coast Boston northwards); February will be very mild and dry. Normal to below normal temps in March with significant snowfall throughout the region except for the Cape and islands.