December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will never forget him coming to visit me in the hospital after that terrible accident I was in 13 years ago.....he is a true weenie, but also a true friend.

I remember that. I called you but you had no idea I had. Jerry is the man.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I remember that. I called you but you had no idea I had. Jerry is the man.

I think scooter may have visited, too....I was pretty out of it....the meds that they had me on actually made me violent, which is totally not in my nature. I was threatening staff, etc....was nuts.

[Ginx snewx]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That must be off, its north of Steve and his dogs.

I don't expect snow any year until after mid month then we are open to our usual long lasting death bands.  We are soon entering a period which could rank up there. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I initially said post 12/5, but that was maybe 2 weeks ago? So don’t come after me with a pitchfork lol. I agree with Will for the 8-9 and then looks like after 12-12 is really one to watch. It makes sense. I remember even posting that when patterns change, it’s not instantly realized. 

My mindset was always: 12/5 is when I'll start looking for threats on models. so maybe by then the models will start picking up on trackable winter storms in the day 5+ range. If that gets pushed a couple days, then whatever

[Snowcrazed71]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Happy Birthday!  Do December bdays make us snow weenies?  Then again, if we were born 2 weeks later our chances would be better.  

You know, I'm not sure lol. I've been a snow waiting since I was a little kid, and I still feel like I'm a little kid. Sometimes. Sometimes I wonder if anybody else feels the same way I do, then I found the forum. Our chances will come hopefully soon. Thanks so much by the way

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't expect snow any year until after mid month then we are open to our usual long lasting death bands.  We are soon entering a period which could rank up there. 

Agree. Despite the PAC volatility on the guidance I think we’d have to be extraordinarily unlucky to not get at least one solid (warning level) hit. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You know, I'm not sure lol. I've been a snow waiting since I was a little kid, and I still feel like I'm a little kid. Sometimes. Sometimes I wonder if anybody else feels the same way I do, then I found the forum. Our chances will come hopefully soon. Thanks so much by the way

Happy birthday.  Fair to say most here have the same experience.

[Ginx snewx]

This is the time frame for the melts. As many have said the setup takes time, the evolution takes time but if you ignore the signals and melt well that's on you. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is the time frame for the melts. As many have said the setup takes time, the evolution takes time but if you ignore the signals and melt well that's on you. 

Why are people having meltdowns? I'm confused. Do people think a storm has to be on a model at D10 and then expect the storm to hold on each subsequent run? Most of out storms don't even really become evident on the SLP graphics until like 4-5 days out. 

I think some need to keep in mind that while everything looks great in terms of pattern evolution we're still dealing with a pretty fast flow aloft. Those fast flows are a mess for guidance, especially when there are so many moving pieces (shortwaves). 

We're not going to see a scenario where models have a cyclogenesis bomb moving up the coast at D10 and having that be a consistent run-to-run solution. 

[klw]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

NOAA agrees, lol.  What is this product?

 

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Where did you even find this?

It can be found here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

It is under the 8 to 14 day hazards link.  Click on box saying snow hazards.

link to the image: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

[OceanStWx]

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Someone sent it.  Had no idea NOAA even buries this type of stuff anywhere on their website.  Like how....

It's on the main page https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ under 8-14 day hazards, right next to where you get the temp outlooks. 

I know this is a CPC product, but it feels like WPC especially is going to start moving towards a more SPC style on winter weather. We'll have risks and eventually I think some would like them to take over watches. I personally think there are some fundamental differences there when it comes to how quickly severe evolves vs. winter weather, but it's also well above my pay grade.

43 minutes ago, yoda said:

I know this isn't exactly what you are asking for... but found this

 

This WSSI product is going to start getting a lot more press as well. This is generated from our local gridded forecast and adjusted by climatology locally to a degree. It incorporates a bunch of things beyond just temps and snowfall amounts. We've done a lot of work to make sure that a 12 inch storm around here doesn't spit out "prepare to be without critical services for weeks" and other statements that make more sense for ATL than here.

[weathafella]

Speaking of melts, we actually had a melt thread about 10 years ago and snowNH melt within that thread was gold.

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is the time frame for the melts. As many have said the setup takes time, the evolution takes time but if you ignore the signals and melt well that's on you. 

It's kind of a high stakes game of chicken for the weenies. Who breaks down and melts and who trusts the pattern.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's kind of a high stakes game of chicken for the weenies. Who breaks down and melts and who trusts the pattern.

 

Mets are also included. You all are as much of weenies as everyone else. You just hold the degree. Other than that , everyone shares same feelings , emotions, and wants. 

[SJonesWX]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Why are people having meltdowns? I'm confused. Do people think a storm has to be on a model at D10 and then expect the storm to hold on each subsequent run? Most of out storms don't even really become evident on the SLP graphics until like 4-5 days out. 

I think some need to keep in mind that while everything looks great in terms of pattern evolution we're still dealing with a pretty fast flow aloft. Those fast flows are a mess for guidance, especially when there are so many moving pieces (shortwaves). 

We're not going to see a scenario where models have a cyclogenesis bomb moving up the coast at D10 and having that be a consistent run-to-run solution. 

this coming from a weenie who melts over every tiny little thunderstorm that misses

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mets are also included. You all are as much of weenies as everyone else. You just hold the degree. Other than that , everyone shares same feelings , emotions, and wants. 

At least Scooter waits to melt until late January. 

[weatherwiz]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's on the main page https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ under 8-14 day hazards, right next to where you get the temp outlooks. 

I know this is a CPC product, but it feels like WPC especially is going to start moving towards a more SPC style on winter weather. We'll have risks and eventually I think some would like them to take over watches. I personally think there are some fundamental differences there when it comes to how quickly severe evolves vs. winter weather, but it's also well above my pay grade.

This WSSI product is going to start getting a lot more press as well. This is generated from our local gridded forecast and adjusted by climatology locally to a degree. It incorporates a bunch of things beyond just temps and snowfall amounts. We've done a lot of work to make sure that a 12 inch storm around here doesn't spit out "prepare to be without critical services for weeks" and other statements that make more sense for ATL than here.

I am a big fan of the WSSI. 

[Ginx snewx]

Running a snowfall contest again after a 4 year hiatus. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

At least Scooter waits to melt until late January. 

His melts are right up there with Snow Nh and Tip’s and Rays over the years. I can guarantee you Will has them but he tends to try to mask them on here. Rest assured though.. at home he’s ripping heads off the kids toys at and dropping mother f bombs while banging on the steering wheel thinking about how bad the pattern is

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

At least Scooter waits to melt until late January. 

Scooter Smash. I'm cool...I feel like I've mellowed a bit as I get older. If were all in this together...it's more comforting. I also have been very fortunate and I take that into account.  

I get more aggravated at shitty rainy days and kids driving me nuts.  

[CoastalWx]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think scooter may have visited, too....I was pretty out of it....the meds that they had me on actually made me violent, which is totally not in my nature. I was threatening staff, etc....was nuts.

I did. It was a nasty cutter too that day lol.  Wait, violence is not in your nature??    Lets get a couple of CJ events and test that theory.

[MJO812]

The 9-10 storm is a cutter on gfs

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The 9-10 storm is a cutter on gfs

It was congrats RIC at 00z.  

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It was congrats RIC at 00z.  

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

It's not a cutter though. Will get sheared out and redevelop near or under on the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

GFS op with troughing to Baja doesn't look like suppression to me next week for sure. There's the volatility.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Beer

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not a cutter though. Will get sheared out and redevelop near or under on the GFS.

Ya I mean ..that was pretty clear to see it was running into confluence . Thou that high is “scootin East “ but there was another high pressing in just in time for northern areas of forum 

[ORH_wxman]

43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's on the main page https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ under 8-14 day hazards, right next to where you get the temp outlooks. 

I know this is a CPC product, but it feels like WPC especially is going to start moving towards a more SPC style on winter weather. We'll have risks and eventually I think some would like them to take over watches. I personally think there are some fundamental differences there when it comes to how quickly severe evolves vs. winter weather, but it's also well above my pay grade.

This WSSI product is going to start getting a lot more press as well. This is generated from our local gridded forecast and adjusted by climatology locally to a degree. It incorporates a bunch of things beyond just temps and snowfall amounts. We've done a lot of work to make sure that a 12 inch storm around here doesn't spit out "prepare to be without critical services for weeks" and other statements that make more sense for ATL than here.

The bolded is very concerning IMHO. That is the model for taking out local wx knowledge and replacing it with cookie-cutter forecasting.....and winter wx is probably the best example of forecast skill degradation when not knowing local climo and terrain effects. I know we've talked in the past about how you see people who aren't familiar with ice storm climo in New England applying the plains idealized model and it usually will cause you to get the forecast exactly backwards here.

But even on snow/sleet events not knowing local climo hurts a lot. Esp WRT cold air damming in New England.

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not a cutter though. Will get sheared out and redevelop near or under on the GFS.

Yep congrats New England