December 2022 Obs/Disc

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Utter chaos coming from every guidance source overnight… both within their own performance envelopes but relative to one another. 

The blocking in the hemisphere is the only consistency … but morphologies in how it integrates with the surrounding circulation medium, from forcing to feedbacks, … is/has been different from run to run. 

If the PAC has “improved” it is what it is but it’s also “new” and represents a mottled continuity … Better looking doesn’t necessarily add too predictive skill - just sayn

Oh man. I don’t know this is the first time I’ve seen blocking grow so ominously large that it threatens some kind of cascade thermal inversion that engulfs everywhere and is spooky in the Sci Fi sense of it  LOL

06z oper GFS shows the 12.13.14 aspect but it’s hard to even tell if that’s the same or just coincidentally timed peregrination of the next variable run or what that is.  

The GGEM’s exotic solution is really 7.8.9 getting stuck in -NAO amber … almost a vague analog to the ‘100 hour  storm’ but that entire option obliterated any system planning at all in lieu of what that’s doing.  Looks less like it logistics out there and much more like it’s just numerical instability in doing something at all underneath the NAO block’s baroclinic petri potential. It’s just so volatile. Retrograde plus east component plus the Coriolis parameter creates a little red spot. 
… It’s actually kind of cool. Heh 

Just looking at the individual members of the GEFs it still looks like a run up to mid month has a chance to be a significant player over the eastern conus.  The one in the foreground around the eighth to the 10th I think the models will not stop until they actually tap the Metaverse

If there's one thing that is proving to be very true of what we said days ago, it's the model volatility on individual threats.  It's going to be quite frustrating from a forecasting standpoint....you'll get all sorts of weirdo solutions...esp beyond D6, but I wouldn't be surprised at volatility even inside of 6 days.

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I side with the GEFS on that, but we'll see....the Pacific will eventually improve, but I think it will take some time.

The CFS weeklies show exactly what you were forecasting. Blocking week 2 and then east coast trough weeks 3 through 6.

[EastonSN+]

Looks like great timing getting back to phases 781 when the block matures.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

The mets have literally been saying since the very beginning that it looks like garbage until after halfway through the month.

I don't think that is totally true....we initially said post-Dec 5th....and then it was more like post Dec 7th.....I still think the latter is mostly true. Dec 9-10 is def still on the table. But we're fighting the SE ridge maybe 2-4 days longer than initially progged.

We did say recently that it looks much better after 12/12 and that is still true. EPS might look better a day or two sooner than GEFS, but these are trivial details at the moment.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

The mets have literally been saying since the very beginning that it looks like garbage until after halfway through the month.

Negative . You. Can’t keep moving goalposts just so everyone feels that nothing has changed thou it may help snow mood . That’s not a net neutral thing . It’s what it is and your just left hoping the 10-15 day period that has been pushed back holds on again . That’s actually accurate but folks don’t seem to want to hear it .

i think my posts often come thru as “negative “‘when I’m really just trying my best to be objective 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think that is totally true....we initially said post-Dec 5th....and then it was more like post Dec 7th.....I still think the latter is mostly true. Dec 9-10 is def still on the table. But we're fighting the SE ridge maybe 2-4 days longer than initially progged.

We did say recently that it looks much better after 12/12 and that is still true. EPS might look better a day or two sooner than GEFS, but these are trivial details at the moment.

 

Thank you for clarifying, apologies for misrepresenting your sentiment. Maybe I misunderstood then.

[ORH_wxman]

Again, the developing pattern had 3 phases to it:

1. The block actually evolving and setting up shop....that is Dec 3-7. We see a couple milder systems during this time.

2. Block is established, but we are fighting the SE ridge before it retrogrades. This is Dec 8-12....we can sneak a wintry system in this period but it requires good timing and it's dealing with the gradient between the block and the SE ridge.

3. Block fully established but it has peaked in strength and SE ridge has retrograded further west allowing for more potential amplification of systems over the east. This is like 12/13 and beyond. This is the period that looks most favorable for larger systems.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like great timing getting back to phases 781 when the block matures.

Yeeeeah I would not count on the MJO helping out much until further notice. It’s really in a destructive interference with the footprint of the Pacific.

One thing folks need to understand about the MJO it does not force the pattern; it augments the pattern if/when the pattern is receptive. Otherwise it doesn’t augment shit. 

Crass way to put it but it either adds or subtracts from an ongoing pattern via constructive vs destructive interference. All of the left side RMM wave phase spaces are destructive until further notice … which is why we  keep seeing the wave collapse into the COD region abruptly as it tries to enter phase 8 from 7? That’s the footprint of the Pacific canceling out the MJO, and thus its ability to influence the pattern goes right along with it. 

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How much confidence should one put into the pacific looking good then at this lead time , not being funny lol serious question . Or is it just less hostile .   I mean at 12 days plus out what teleconnectors or upstream / down stream forcing / ridging etc gives it a better than normal chance at what I otherwise would consider la la range 

I believe it will get better. I feel the tropics will help with that. Of course lingering troughing out west has been occurring so we may need to consider that?
 

I think it will become “less hostile” at first, but then  improve to a more -EPO? Just my guess. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Thank you for clarifying, apologies for misrepresenting your sentiment. Maybe I misunderstood then.

Yeah I initially said post 12/5, but that was maybe 2 weeks ago? So don’t come after me with a pitchfork lol. I agree with Will for the 8-9 and then looks like after 12-12 is really one to watch. It makes sense. I remember even posting that when patterns change, it’s not instantly realized. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I believe it will get better. I feel the tropics will help with that. Of course lingering troughing out west has been occurring so we may need to consider that?
 

I think it will become “less hostile” at first, but then  improve to a more -EPO? Just my guess. 

To me, the "less hostile" phase is the 12/12-12/15 period and then it looks like it actually gets favorable post-12/15....but of course, "less hostile" PAC with that NAO block is still pretty good. The "less hostile" PAC allows the SE ridge to weaken/retrograde.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

NOAA agrees, lol.  What is this product?

We can laugh at this is buuut … it is quite right and just about perfect as an early risk assessment. 

we’ve been talking about the run up to mid month for about 10 days at this point.  I mean it’s not just what was in the models there’s other techniques of a personal nature coming from me but other people have been on it too for their own whatever they do. 

And for winter enthusiast, it is unfortunately a slight chance - but you know …that’s gonna be true whenever we’re talking about a 10 day outlook and this is really 11 12 and 13.  I think we’re also kind of in a cultural adjustment when it comes to the technology because the models are so much vastly better we’ve gotten used to expecting certain signals to really manifest at extended leads.  But Jesus the 13th to the 15th is still over 10 days away

[TalcottWx]

Home weather station is up to 30F off a low of 21F last night.

[Henry's Weather]

7 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Home weather station is up to 30F off a low of 21F last night.

Deep winter

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

2. Block is established, but we are fighting the SE ridge before it retrogrades. This is Dec 8-12....we can sneak a wintry system in this period but it requires good timing and it's dealing with the gradient between the block and the SE ridge.

3. Block fully established but it has peaked in strength and SE ridge has retrograded further west allowing for more potential amplification of systems over the east. This is like 12/13 and beyond. This is the period that looks most favorable for larger systems.

With regard to period 2 and I should probably know this after 10 years , but does the deep S Cali trough that we’ve seen emerge and persist thru 8-10’th pump se ridge during period 2  ? And does that also feedback into less wiggle room for a well situated high to set up establish itself in S Canada . I believe I know answer to first question but not necessarily the second . 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, TalcottWx said:

Let's start a poll: what's worse? people who melt or people constantly complaining about melts?

Oh it’s no contest… Not even close. People who complain about melts are insufferable. 

I mean we’re being tongue-in-cheek here… Still, melts have an entertainment value. Some delicious turns a phrase can come out of people who are in a state of apoplexy.

But the complainers? They are curiously disingenuous people that chastise others for melting, but are in fact melting themselves. That’s just  the way they do it – and it’s actually technically a form of gaslighting too. They don’t want to face they're own failing so they defer to targeting others and vent that way. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To me, the "less hostile" phase is the 12/12-12/15 period and then it looks like it actually gets favorable post-12/15....but of course, "less hostile" PAC with that NAO block is still pretty good. The "less hostile" PAC allows the SE ridge to weaken/retrograde.

Yep, agree.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With regard to period 2 and I should probably know this after 10 years , but does the deep S Cali trough that we’ve seen emerge and persist thru 8-10’th pump se ridge during period 2  ? And does that also feedback into less wiggle room for a well situated high to set up establish itself in S Canada . I believe I know answer to first question but not necessarily the second . 

Yes on both I think....though who knows for sure on the 2nd question because previously that Dec 9-10 system has been getting crushed below us....more troughing out west might push it north into us. But that's only on the current iteration of the pattern/threat. The shortwave could look different on future runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The CFS weeklies show exactly what you were forecasting. Blocking week 2 and then east coast trough weeks 3 through 6.

Yea, my premise this fall was to be very skeptical of a good Pacific until we get close to the new year...don't expect a great December in that regard. But it looks like the blocking is kicking into high gear a bit faster than my sensible analogs had suggested, so that is good. Every other tool I used was guns blazing for December with respect to the NAO....just my new sensible weather composite had more of a +NAO-December vibe, which gave me a bit of pause in that regard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

NOAA agrees, lol.  What is this product?

That must be off, its north of Steve and his dogs.

[WinterWolf]

Some great discussion on here this morning. A big thanks to the pros and the very knowledgeable hobbyists for some very enlightening information, on this very difficult, yet intriguing pattern setting in.  This is when this place shines, and is a real gem for solid and factual information.  

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Where did you even find this?

Someone sent it.  Had no idea NOAA even buries this type of stuff anywhere on their website.  Like how....

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, TalcottWx said:

Jerry was one of the first people to really be nice to me on here. Here's to many more.

Thanks Jay!  (Until I had the brain fart at the last GTG...)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

But the complainers? They are curiously disingenuous people that chastise others for melting, but are in fact melting themselves. That’s just  the way they do it – and it’s actually technically a form of gaslighting too. They don’t want to face they're own failing so they defer to targeting others and vent that way. 

I think there are those who complain about Melts if the same person tends to melt and get emotional time after time and those like you describe for sure who either want to maintain their views that bring them genuine snow joy and the people questioning the pattern are their joy killers with also a sprinkle in of those who don’t want to hear “weenies whine” so they stretch the limits of nothing has changed Perspective To silence any reason to say something looks worse .  I think this week thou there is very little melts really by either side . A little of the the former as well as I think the closest melt I read on here was from Tim Kelly and I’m sure he’s Partially just sick of seeing cutters thru Stowe being modeled . He’s a big ski weenie

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Thanks Jay!  (Until I had the brain fart at the last GTG...)

Said it last evening, along with a happy birthday, but I think it got buried, but Wish you were coming to the get together next week Jerr.  Was a real nice meeting and getting to know you last November.  We’ll miss you next week. 

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Someone sent it.  Had no idea NOAA even buries this type of stuff anywhere on their website.  Like how....

I know this isn't exactly what you are asking for... but found this

 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will never forget him coming to visit me in the hospital after that terrible accident I was in 13 years ago.....he is a true weenie, but also a true friend.

Thank you for the kind words Ray.  I remember that day.  You had your laptop on the hospital tray during a hideous torch period peering into guidance for something.

 I also really enjoyed meeting your family and I got to talk to your dad.  You have a lot of people who love you and that's testimony to the goodness of your soul.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Said it last evening, along with a happy birthday, but I think it got buried, but Wish you were coming to the get together next week Jerr.  Was a real nice meeting and getting to know you last November.  We’ll miss you next week. 

Yeah JD I"m disappointed not going-always great to see everyone.   Thanks for the BD wishes.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Thank you for the kind words Ray.  I remember that day.  You had your laptop on the hospital tray during a hideous torch period peering into guidance for something.

 I also really enjoyed meeting your family and I got to talk to your dad.  You have a lot of people who love you and that's testimony to the goodness of your soul.

Happy birthday to ya.... I'm hitting 51 tomorrow! The best we can ask for is a nice Snow Storm soon! Lol. 

Hope you had a great Bday man

 

 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Happy birthday to ya.... I'm hitting 51 tomorrow! The best we can ask for is a nice Snow Storm soon! Lol. 

Hope you had a great Bday man

 

 

Happy Birthday!  Do December bdays make us snow weenies?  Then again, if we were born 2 weeks later our chances would be better.