Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya , I honestly just think it will be a feature not a storm for us the thing models seem to be keying in on today (may change) are big negative departures in Cali/Az/Nevada out at day 8-10 gfs flipped earlier in day and euro just now with a *very large pronounced *change colder in that area . Also this run flipped 850’s about 8c milder for New England in that time frame but that could flip again. Looks like a chase to mammoth mountain would be interesting 4 day blizzard enroute. West is getting smoked. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Where do you even begin here? 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec 9-10 I think is our best shot until post-12/12 when the southern ridge starts retrograding. NOAA agrees, lol. What is this product? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We fight the western troughing until around 12/12….which is what helps keep the SE ridging stout. The Dec 7-8 system though gets pinned under the block and provides enough confluence to give us a shot for Dec 9-10 if it can amplify enough. One good trend in the past 24h is pretty good agreement that the PAC gets a lot more favorable beyond 12/12. Our best period might be 12/15-12/25 with the combo of decaying NAO block and a vastly improved N PAC. Winter starts 12/15 and is complete by 12/25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Winter starts 12/15 and is complete by 12/25? Maybe we actually avoid the grinch this year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe we actually avoid the grinch this year. Can't wait for this, like Tahoe yesterday. 4 day blizzard out there. Just sittin waitin and smilin 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Let's start a poll: what's worse? people who melt or people constantly complaining about melts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6z gefs drastically improved over 0z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Oh Tim. That’s not how it works sweetheart. 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NOAA agrees, lol. What is this product? Where did you even find this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Charts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 hours ago, George001 said: I’m all in with the Canadians evolution. It has a fairly weak low hit us the 9th, then the low slides offshore and looks like it’s going to continue sliding east. In most patterns, it would. However, the blocking doesn’t let the low move east. It has no choice but to come back and hit us again, and it deepens rapidly due to the warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The airmass is not all that cold, so we will be fighting rain snow lines. That is very much a risk this early in the season, however if the low gets strong enough it can and will create its own cold air. It looks like that is what the Canadian is hinting at, the airmass is fairly mild but the low creates it’s own cold air. This dynamically cools the column, leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. We get over 2 straight days of precip, with some areas in SE mass getting 3+ inches of QPF! Obviously it isn’t all snow, but still it shows just how much potential this pattern has. People clown on the Canadian a lot but I think it has the right idea. Whatever storm that hits us is going to just sit there and rot over us, leading to crazy high QPF outputs. The whole GFS idea of linking up the SE ridge to the block is complete bullshit, it’s more likely that the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year than that actually happening. What about the NOGAPS? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: My son at Montana State can confirm and enjoy that. Nice. Yeah Missoula -7.7 and 12 inches for the month of November. Montana state is in Butte? 3rd coldest November on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Late October and November was cold out west and into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where do you even begin here? Do you think he's aware that he's the unintentional comic relief of an internet forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch. I think my prog is looking pretty good still... even consider Tim Kelly melting for a modeled dec 11 cutter as part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 47 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NOAA agrees, lol. What is this product? This is cool, I'm glad they have a branch which does this sort of greyhound long-term sniffing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice. Yeah Missoula -7.7 and 12 inches for the month of November. Montana state is in Butte? 3rd coldest November on record Bozeman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 How does a storm cut west with a -NAO of -3SD? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch. Biggest disagreement on ensembles right now is around that Dec 11-12 period....EPS are better looking than GEFS. GEFS don't have the ridging out near Rockies that EPS have....GEFS eventually do look very good, but they wait a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 About as bullish as this guy gets when it comes to snow 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Nice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, TalcottWx said: Jerry was one of the first people to really be nice to me on here. Here's to many more. I will never forget him coming to visit me in the hospital after that terrible accident I was in 13 years ago.....he is a true weenie, but also a true friend. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 hours ago, George001 said: I’m all in with the Canadians evolution. It has a fairly weak low hit us the 9th, then the low slides offshore and looks like it’s going to continue sliding east. In most patterns, it would. However, the blocking doesn’t let the low move east. It has no choice but to come back and hit us again, and it deepens rapidly due to the warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The airmass is not all that cold, so we will be fighting rain snow lines. That is very much a risk this early in the season, however if the low gets strong enough it can and will create its own cold air. It looks like that is what the Canadian is hinting at, the airmass is fairly mild but the low creates it’s own cold air. This dynamically cools the column, leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. We get over 2 straight days of precip, with some areas in SE mass getting 3+ inches of QPF! Obviously it isn’t all snow, but still it shows just how much potential this pattern has. People clown on the Canadian a lot but I think it has the right idea. Whatever storm that hits us is going to just sit there and rot over us, leading to crazy high QPF outputs. The whole GFS idea of linking up the SE ridge to the block is complete bullshit, it’s more likely that the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year than that actually happening. first of all, it is not physically possible for a storm to create its own cold air. a storm may bring cold air from the north/northwest, but no it ain't creating shit. secondly, settle down Beavis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Biggest disagreement on ensembles right now is around that Dec 11-12 period....EPS are better looking than GEFS. GEFS don't have the ridging out near Rockies that EPS have....GEFS eventually do look very good, but they wait a little longer. I think I side with the GEFS on that, but we'll see....the Pacific will eventually improve, but I think it will take some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I side with the GEFS on that, but we'll see....the Pacific will eventually improve, but I think it will take some time. Yeah the GEFS seem to be leading the EPS a bit, though the EPS caught onto the NAO block better and earlier. GEFS seems to be doing a little better in the PAC recently. But we'll see if that continues or just a random occurrence. I don't think the differences matter a ton though for now....both still have a shot at something around Dec 9. GEFS prob have a better chance of us seeing something ugly like a cutter pre-12/13 (and post 12/7) than the EPS does. I noticed the EPS retrogrades the NAO block further west than the GEFS does, so that could also be affecting the pattern too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch. How much confidence should one put into the pacific looking good then at this lead time , not being funny lol serious question . Or is it just less hostile . I mean at 12 days plus out what teleconnectors or upstream / down stream forcing / ridging etc gives it a better than normal chance at what I otherwise would consider la la range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Utter chaos coming from every guidance source overnight… both within their own performance envelopes but relative to one another. The blocking in the hemisphere is the only consistency … but morphologies in how it integrates with the surrounding circulation medium, from forcing to feedbacks, … is/has been different from run to run. If the PAC has “improved” it is what it is but it’s also “new” and represents a mottled continuity … Better looking doesn’t necessarily add too predictive skill - just sayn Oh man. I don’t know this is the first time I’ve seen blocking grow so ominously large that it threatens some kind of cascade thermal inversion that engulfs everywhere and is spooky in the Sci Fi sense of it LOL 06z oper GFS shows the 12.13.14 aspect but it’s hard to even tell if that’s the same or just coincidentally timed peregrination of the next variable run or what that is. The GGEM’s exotic solution is really 7.8.9 getting stuck in -NAO amber … almost a vague analog to the ‘100 hour storm’ but that entire option obliterated any system planning at all in lieu of what that’s doing. Looks less like it logistics out there and much more like it’s just numerical instability in doing something at all underneath the NAO block’s baroclinic petri potential. It’s just so volatile. Retrograde plus east component plus the Coriolis parameter creates a little red spot. … It’s actually kind of cool. Heh Just looking at the individual members of the GEFs it still looks like a run up to mid month has a chance to be a significant player over the eastern conus. The one in the foreground around the eighth to the 10th I think the models will not stop until they actually tap the Metaverse 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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