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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya , I honestly just think it will be a feature not a storm for us 

the thing models seem to be keying in on today (may change) are big negative departures in Cali/Az/Nevada out at day 8-10 

gfs flipped earlier in day and euro just now with a *very large pronounced *change colder  in that area . Also this run flipped 850’s about 8c milder for New England in that time frame but that could flip again. Looks like a chase to mammoth mountain  would be interesting 

 

 

4 day blizzard enroute. West is getting smoked.

20221201_221139.jpg

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We fight the western troughing until around 12/12….which is what helps keep the SE ridging stout. The Dec 7-8 system though gets pinned under the block and provides enough confluence to give us a shot for Dec 9-10 if it can amplify enough. 
 

One good trend in the past 24h is pretty good agreement that the PAC gets a lot more favorable beyond 12/12. Our best period might be 12/15-12/25 with the combo of decaying NAO block and a vastly improved N PAC. 

Winter starts 12/15 and is complete by 12/25?

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4 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m all in with the Canadians evolution. It has a fairly weak low hit us the 9th, then the low slides offshore and looks like it’s going to continue sliding east. In most patterns, it would. However, the blocking doesn’t let the low move east. It has no choice but to come back and hit us again, and it deepens rapidly due to the warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The airmass is not all that cold, so we will be fighting rain snow lines. That is very much a risk this early in the season, however if the low gets strong enough it can and will create its own cold air. It looks like that is what the Canadian is hinting at, the airmass is fairly mild but the low creates it’s own cold air. This dynamically cools the column, leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. We get over 2 straight days of precip, with some areas in SE mass getting 3+ inches of QPF! Obviously it isn’t all snow, but still it shows just how much potential this pattern has. People clown on the Canadian a lot but I think it has the right idea. Whatever storm that hits us is going to just sit there and rot over us, leading to crazy high QPF outputs. The whole GFS idea of linking up the SE ridge to the block is complete bullshit, it’s more likely that the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year than that actually happening.  

What about the NOGAPS?

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch. 

I think my prog is looking pretty good still... even consider Tim Kelly melting for a modeled dec 11 cutter as part of it

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch. 

Biggest disagreement on ensembles right now is around that Dec 11-12 period....EPS are better looking than GEFS. GEFS don't have the ridging out near Rockies that EPS have....GEFS eventually do look very good, but they wait a little longer.

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5 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m all in with the Canadians evolution. It has a fairly weak low hit us the 9th, then the low slides offshore and looks like it’s going to continue sliding east. In most patterns, it would. However, the blocking doesn’t let the low move east. It has no choice but to come back and hit us again, and it deepens rapidly due to the warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The airmass is not all that cold, so we will be fighting rain snow lines. That is very much a risk this early in the season, however if the low gets strong enough it can and will create its own cold air. It looks like that is what the Canadian is hinting at, the airmass is fairly mild but the low creates it’s own cold air. This dynamically cools the column, leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. We get over 2 straight days of precip, with some areas in SE mass getting 3+ inches of QPF! Obviously it isn’t all snow, but still it shows just how much potential this pattern has. People clown on the Canadian a lot but I think it has the right idea. Whatever storm that hits us is going to just sit there and rot over us, leading to crazy high QPF outputs. The whole GFS idea of linking up the SE ridge to the block is complete bullshit, it’s more likely that the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year than that actually happening.  

first of all, it is not physically possible for a storm to create its own cold air. a storm may bring cold air from the north/northwest, but no it ain't creating shit.

secondly, settle down Beavis.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Biggest disagreement on ensembles right now is around that Dec 11-12 period....EPS are better looking than GEFS. GEFS don't have the ridging out near Rockies that EPS have....GEFS eventually do look very good, but they wait a little longer.

I think I side with the GEFS on that, but we'll see....the Pacific will eventually improve, but I think it will take some time.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I side with the GEFS on that, but we'll see....the Pacific will eventually improve, but I think it will take some time.

Yeah the GEFS seem to be leading the EPS a bit, though the EPS caught onto the NAO block better and earlier. GEFS seems to be doing a little better in the PAC recently. But we'll see if that continues or just a random occurrence.

I don't think the differences matter a ton though for now....both still have a shot at something around Dec 9. GEFS prob have a better chance of us seeing something ugly like a cutter pre-12/13 (and post 12/7) than the EPS does. I noticed the EPS retrogrades the NAO block further west than the GEFS does, so that could also be affecting the pattern too.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch. 

How much confidence should one put into the pacific looking good then at this lead time , not being funny lol serious question . Or is it just less hostile .   I mean at 12 days plus out what teleconnectors or upstream / down stream forcing / ridging etc gives it a better than normal chance at what I otherwise would consider la la range 

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Utter chaos coming from every guidance source overnight… both within their own performance envelopes but relative to one another. 

The blocking in the hemisphere is the only consistency … but morphologies in how it integrates with the surrounding circulation medium, from forcing to feedbacks, … is/has been different from run to run. 

If the PAC has “improved” it is what it is but it’s also “new” and represents a mottled continuity … Better looking doesn’t necessarily add too predictive skill - just sayn

Oh man. I don’t know this is the first time I’ve seen blocking grow so ominously large that it threatens some kind of cascade thermal inversion that engulfs everywhere and is spooky in the Sci Fi sense of it  LOL

06z oper GFS shows the 12.13.14 aspect but it’s hard to even tell if that’s the same or just coincidentally timed peregrination of the next variable run or what that is.  

The GGEM’s exotic solution is really 7.8.9 getting stuck in -NAO amber … almost a vague analog to the ‘100 hour  storm’ but that entire option obliterated any system planning at all in lieu of what that’s doing.  Looks less like it logistics out there and much more like it’s just numerical instability in doing something at all underneath the NAO block’s baroclinic petri potential. It’s just so volatile. Retrograde plus east component plus the Coriolis parameter creates a little red spot. 
… It’s actually kind of cool. Heh 

Just looking at the individual members of the GEFs it still looks like a run up to mid month has a chance to be a significant player over the eastern conus.  The one in the foreground around the eighth to the 10th I think the models will not stop until they actually tap the Metaverse

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