Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Furnaced Wednesday and then possible wind damage Thursday on CAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Should be mild and dry tomorrow. Yep. We end Mowvember on a high note. I may take the day off to finish winterizing the yard. November snow is nice but the mild month has been great. I’ll be ready for snow right when the models show the potential a few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I may take the day off to finish winterizing the yard. November snow is nice but the mild month has been great. I’ll be ready for snow right when the models show the potential a few weeks. Yep. Winterize a bit more and do some outdoor lights etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Something extraordinary is trying to set up out there in between the 7th and 20th of December ... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I may take the day off to finish winterizing the yard. November snow is nice but the mild month has been great. I’ll be ready for snow right when the models show the potential a few weeks. Yes sir, 12/8-10 onward is a nice time for the pattern to set in…10-13 days from now makes a big difference climatologically speaking this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Something extraordinary is trying to set up out there in between the 7th and 20th of December ... Didn’t you just say in your previous post whatever happens, it doesn’t have to be a bomb? Or did I misinterpret it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Didn’t you just say in your previous post whatever happens, it doesn’t have to be a bomb? Or did I misinterpret it? What, you don't read minds?! lol - No, I mean wrt the pattern. That's where my mind spoke internally, but then I only managed to type ~ half of that internal dialogue there haha. Yeah, I mean the pattern is attempting to get extraordinary, in both the GEFs and EPS means. I mean the D10 in the 00z EPS and both the 00z and 06z GEFs appears to be nearing some kind of H500 historical value in the NAO, doing so within an entire hemisphere that's exceptionally deeply descending Arctic Oscillation. The only reason why the AO is "only" -2 or so SD out there, is because the whole hemisphere is biased mild ( maybe that's a CC tugging at that...I dunno - not getting into that...). But, that structure is about as pure a total bifurcation of the PV as is fluid mechanically possible at total planetary scales. These operational runs ...more or less oscillating their runs around impressions that are not "yet" tapped into what all that "could" mean. The embedded events of which ...it's like you are looking Betelgeuse ... knowing that a super nova could detonate at any time. In the models, we are just waiting on the nova to materialize out of that potential. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What, you don't read minds?! lol - No, I mean wrt the pattern. That's where my mind spoke internally, but then I only managed to type ~ half of that internal dialogue there haha. Yeah, I mean the pattern is attempting to get extraordinary, in both the GEFs and EPS means. I mean the D10 in the 00z EPS and both the 00z and 06z GEFs appears to be nearing some kind of H500 historical value in the NAO, doing so within an entire hemisphere that's exceptionally deeply descending Arctic Oscillation. The only reason why the AO is "only" -2 or so SD out there, is because the whole hemisphere is biased mild ( maybe that's a CC tugging at that...I dunno - not getting into that...). But, that structure is about as pure a total bifurcation of the PV as is fluid mechanically possible at total planetary scales. These operational runs ...more or less oscillating their runs around impressions that are not "yet" tapped into what all that "could" mean. The embedded events of which ...it's like you are looking Betelgeuse ... knowing that a super nova could detonate at any time. In the models, we are just waiting on the nova to materialize out of that potential. Ahhh ok. I was thinking as I posted, is he meaning the pattern in general? And you were. I agree…it(the pattern) is looking like something we haven’t seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Found this to be a bit interesting. Let's hope it comes fruitful. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/snow-extent-northern-hemisphere-highest-56-years-winter-cold-rrc/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 We are getting there. Putting down good snowpack in Canada. Gradient is so close but yet so far into mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: We are getting there. Putting down good snowpack in Canada. Gradient is so close but yet so far into mid-December. Congrats Chatham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We are getting there. Putting down good snowpack in Canada. Gradient is so close but yet so far into mid-December. I can just hear some day's meme of, 'yeah, snow pack is overrated' ... It's really popularized quite affectingly when there is in fact no snow cover, too. LOL. But it is perhaps more important than many may think. Particularly for marginal/mixy overrunning scenarios. If one likes ice storms ( ...other than needing their head examined...) that's the difference between 32.8 and 31.1 for ageo flows that drain from that source. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 That would be terrible if that verified thru mid month. Thankfully it’s the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That would be terrible if that verified thru mid month. Thankfully it’s the GFS There’s a pretty reasonable chance we don’t get any snow events through 12/13. That’s like a week (maybe not even) into the pattern change. I’d be surprised though if we made it to 12/20 without one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Snow is obviously a wildcard, even if great patterns, but I’d be pretty disappointed if there wasn’t a region wide snow event by Christmas given the look come the second week of December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s a pretty reasonable chance we don’t get any snow events through 12/13. That’s like a week (maybe not even) into the pattern change. I’d be surprised though if we made it to 12/20 without one. Well I hope not. That would be a tremendous letdown… for me anyway . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 As we all know, good or even great patterns don’t guarantee snowstorms. But I’ll gladly take the pattern depicted, and role the dice. If we come up empty…it will certainly be a let down for sure, but I’ll enthusiastically step up to the plate with that look, and take my swings/chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That would be terrible if that verified thru mid month. Thankfully it’s the GFS And an OP run at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well I hope not. That would be a tremendous letdown… for me anyway . Yes I know it would be. That’s why we’re posting it so that you can re-adjust your expectations. Sometimes we get a snow event right at the beginning of the pattern change, but sometimes we don’t and we have to wait a week-plus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And an OP run at that. Expectations are sky high in the forum . GGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Even in 2010, the pattern flipped around 12/5….but we then whiffed on a snow chance a day or two later and then we had a torching cutter on 12/12/10 within that favorable pattern. The retro storm on 12/21-22 was our first accumulating snow in the pattern and it was only a big deal on the Cape. Boxing Day finally happened a few days later. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Expectations are sky high in the forum . GGW Sounds like a good place to start. Can only get higher from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: We are getting there. Putting down good snowpack in Canada. Gradient is so close but yet so far into mid-December. Awful 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Expectations are sky high in the forum . GGW Well excitement is definitely building it seems…we gotta try and temper expectations some however….until we see the whites of their eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Awful Ya 384 Hr OP runs are always spot on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Lots of ppl just are seeing red in Greenland and expecting a good pattern. Not going to happen, SE ridge will join up with the blocking and dump the PV into the west 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Awful It would be building snowpack up north though. Keeps laying ground work for the future. The pattern change isn't just going to happen and bombs start dropping immediately. It takes time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, qg_omega said: Lots of ppl just are seeing red in Greenland and expecting a good pattern. Not going to happen, SE ridge will join up with the blocking and dump the PV into the west Nobody is expecting that. You’re a Troll and assume nonsense that nobody here is saying. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Lots of ppl just are seeing red in Greenland and expecting a good pattern. Not going to happen, SE ridge will join up with the blocking and dump the PV into the west Troll 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nobody is expecting that. You’re a Troll and assume nonsense that nobody here is saying. There are some hints of at least that possibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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