Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: lol that's wild. That's 4 rain events to Canada on the 18z GFS and gearing up for #5 at Day 16. There's no panic, it's just comical. I was just looking at the 18z GFS loop at TT. given that frame size … you almost get the impression there’s no -NAO at all … im too tired to look at this further. I’m getting close to whocaresville but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s just moved the blocking en masse again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Oh I see. It’s really just doing what the 12z did but even worse. That would be a first time in history if the NAO actually behaved that way and maybe there’s something tied to global warming and CC with that I don’t know I’ve never seen a model be so hell-bent on doing something that’s pretty much never been seen. Do it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Weenies are jumping off cliffs because of the gfs Some folks are purposely stirring the pot but I like where we’re headed, and our odds. It’s +EV, take it every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Some folks are purposely stirring the pot but I like where we’re headed, and our odds. It’s +EV, take it every time. Thank you. And I too like where we’re headed. It’ll settle in…just need to be a little patient imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 41 minutes ago, weathafella said: My father returned from WWII with his date of separation 9 months and 2 days before my birth…lol My dad was deferred due to his occupation, despite turning 25 on 1/1/42. As an electrical engineer for ITT, whatever he was doing at their Nutley, NJ facility must've been really important. I think it may have involved remote sensing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Happy birthday Jerry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh I see. It’s really just doing what the 12z did but even worse. That would be a first time in history if the NAO actually behaved that way and maybe there’s something tied to global warming and CC with that I don’t know I’ve never seen a model be so hell-bent on doing something that’s pretty much never been seen. Do it seems. I'm honestly shocked what models are showing. I've never seen a blocking pattern like that. This is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm honestly shocked what models are showing. I've never seen a blocking pattern like that. This is insane Please Explain? EPS looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Please Explain? EPS looks good. He means GFS OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 DT posted on Euro weekly and new CMC monthly...both orgasmic and in very good agreement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: He means GFS OP Ahh ok. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 0z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT posted in Euro weekly and new CMC monthly...both orgasmic and in very good agreement Nice to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Still insanely heavy snow going on after hr 240 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He means GFS OP GFS ensembles too. Block so strong it forces PV west and then hooks up with SE ridge This would be a first. A very negative AO/NAO with positive to very positive temperature anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Still insanely heavy snow going on after hr 240 Redux 30 years to the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Lol..ya that looks reasonable...Not. And It’s only 600 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Lol..ya that looks reasonable...Not. And It’s only 600 miles offshore. It looks like it hits the block and slides out east after being tucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS ensembles too. Block so strong it forces PV west and then hooks up with SE ridge This would be a first. A very negative AO/NAO with positive to very positive temperature anomalies Until The EPS and other guidance starts showing that absurdity, I’m very skeptical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Still insanely heavy snow going on after hr 240 Nice snow bomb just away from coast . there is some semblance of models sniffing out a retro storm now on euro /gfs/ cmc yoi can see more indications on gfs and cmc and euro of the stale marine airmass over SE Canada and NE Maine in this period . Jerry’s elephant One persistent thing is that Cali trough . Gfs has it for basically next 300 hours . Look at the 540 line just buried into between SF and oscillating down toward LA the next 12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Redux 30 years to the day. Except I wouldn't be living in the valley this time around.. that snow cutoff is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: Except I wouldn't be living in the valley this time around.. that snow cutoff is nuts Ya that’s fantasy, not happening…but I get your excitement. Rain for the vast majority of us in that depiction, unless you have some serious elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Until The EPS and other guidance starts showing that absurdity, I’m very skeptical. Those solutions would shock a lot of mets and climatologists. I guess you could make the argument that the GFS/GEFS is more of a north Atlantic block vs Greenland block but it would be nothing good. If the GFS op verifies we would be setting warm temperature records in the first half of December It could also be case of delayed not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z CMC Retrograding low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Those solutions would shock a lot of mets and climatologists. I guess you could make the argument that the GFS/GEFS is more of a north Atlantic block vs Greenland block but it would be nothing good. If the GFS op verifies we would be setting warm temperature records in the first half of December Ya it’s off its rocker imo with its unprecedented ideas. If the EPS tonight shows that…then that’s a different story. But I’m not thinking that’s the case. Interesting to see if the EPS goes that way, or holds serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Retrograding low? Euro and gfs have it . I don’t think a track hitting us it will stick , but When you have a *very strong Persistent block* modeled across all Guidance you can see some early indicators of a storm evolution That catches on . the energy From the day 10 storm traces from the day 5.5 low that passes over us and establishes the block . That is well modeled and not dependent of the latter period pacific question marks . Then as it passes by and sort of redevelops a low East of Maine it gets clogged up in the N Atlantic under the block And has less escape options and sometimes can be sniffed out at longer leads. Sandy was a good example My guess is the retro is real but may end up too Far East of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Retrograding low? I don’t know if it’s retro grading as much as getting shunted east after being tucked as Ray mentioned. But it’s the CMC. And it’s 10 days out…Soooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Gfs and CMC also develop a late season Hurricane no threat to land but still neat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: Gfs and CMC also develop a late season Hurricane no threat to land but still neat Let’s suck that in to the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya it’s off its rocker imo with its unprecedented ideas. If the EPS tonight shows that…then that’s a different story. But I’m not thinking that’s the case. Interesting to see if the EPS goes that way, or holds serve? It's the Pacific that's giving the models problems. Arctic blocking hasn't changed that much on the models but the Pacific is all over the place. Hopefully that gets resolved soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now