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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

lol that's wild.  That's 4 rain events to Canada on the 18z GFS and gearing up for #5 at Day 16.

There's no panic, it's just comical.

I was just looking at the 18z GFS loop at TT.  given that frame size … you almost get the impression there’s no -NAO at all … 

im too tired to look at this further. I’m getting close to whocaresville but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s just moved the blocking en masse again 

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Oh I see.  It’s really just doing what the 12z did but even worse. 

That would be a first time in history if the NAO actually behaved that way and maybe there’s something tied to global warming and CC with that I don’t know I’ve never seen a model be so hell-bent on doing something that’s pretty much never been seen. Do it seems. 

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41 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My father returned from WWII with his date of separation 9 months and 2 days before my birth…lol

My dad was deferred due to his occupation, despite turning 25 on 1/1/42.  As an electrical engineer for ITT, whatever he was doing at their Nutley, NJ facility must've been really important.   I think it may have involved remote sensing.

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I see.  It’s really just doing what the 12z did but even worse. 

That would be a first time in history if the NAO actually behaved that way and maybe there’s something tied to global warming and CC with that I don’t know I’ve never seen a model be so hell-bent on doing something that’s pretty much never been seen. Do it seems. 

I'm honestly shocked what models are showing. I've never seen a blocking pattern like that. This is insane 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS ensembles too. Block so strong it forces PV west and then hooks up with SE ridge 

This would be a first. A very negative AO/NAO with positive to very positive temperature anomalies 

Until The EPS and other guidance starts showing that absurdity, I’m very skeptical. 

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19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Still insanely heavy snow going on after hr 240

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40.png

  Nice snow bomb just away from coast .  there is some semblance of models sniffing out a retro storm now on euro /gfs/ cmc 

 

yoi can see more indications on gfs and cmc and euro of the stale marine airmass over SE Canada and NE Maine in this period . Jerry’s elephant 

One persistent thing is that Cali trough . Gfs has it for basically next 300 hours . Look at the 540 line just buried into between SF and oscillating down toward LA the next 12 days 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Until The EPS and other guidance starts showing that absurdity, I’m very skeptical. 

Those solutions would shock a lot of mets and climatologists.

I guess you could make the argument that the GFS/GEFS is more of a north Atlantic block vs Greenland block but it would be nothing good.

If the GFS op verifies we would be setting warm temperature records in the first half of December 

It could also be case of delayed not denied 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Those solutions would shock a lot of mets and climatologists.

I guess you could make the argument that the GFS/GEFS is more of a north Atlantic block vs Greenland block but it would be nothing good.

If the GFS op verifies we would be setting warm temperature records in the first half of December 

Ya it’s off its rocker imo with its unprecedented ideas.  If the EPS tonight shows that…then that’s a different story. But I’m not thinking that’s the case.  Interesting to see if the EPS goes that way, or holds serve? 

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10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Retrograding low?

Euro and gfs have it . I don’t think a track hitting us it will stick , but When you have a *very strong Persistent  block* modeled across all Guidance you can see some early indicators of a storm evolution That catches on .
 

 the energy From the day 10 storm traces from the day 5.5 low that passes over us and establishes the block . That is well modeled and not dependent of the latter period pacific question marks . Then as it passes by and sort of redevelops a low East of Maine it gets clogged up in   the N Atlantic under the block And has less escape options and sometimes can be sniffed out at longer leads. Sandy was a good example 

My guess is the retro is real but may end up too Far East of us 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya it’s off its rocker imo with its unprecedented ideas.  If the EPS tonight shows that…then that’s a different story. But I’m not thinking that’s the case.  Interesting to see if the EPS goes that way, or holds serve? 

It's the Pacific that's giving the models problems. Arctic blocking hasn't changed that much on the models but the Pacific is all over the place. 

Hopefully that gets resolved soon

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