78Blizzard Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 What a change from 12z on the 18z GFS, lol. Let's see if the GEFS follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 18z GFS punts till after mid month 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: What a change from 12z on the 18z GFS, lol. Let's see if the GEFS follows suit. Well some were all upset at 12z with the GFS…so what’s the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Well some were all upset at 12z with the GFS…so what’s the change? It still blows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 18z gfs digs a western trough in Mexico….shades of Dec 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z gfs digs a western trough in Mexico….shades of Dec 2021 Lol…ok. At 12z it had the -NAO in PEI. Now a trough in Mexico City. Pretty stable model with the new upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 The Pacific is definitely the biggest difference between the GFS suite and the ECMWF suite. GFS has been screwing around with the troughs out west more aggressively than the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a tool The most hilarious part of the reasoning going with the anomaly map is that the lowest anomalies were over New England from interior New Hampshire to interior MA….. You can tell instantly that person has had almost no experience forecasting in New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The most hilarious part of the reasoning going with the anomaly map is that the lowest anomalies were over New England from interior New Hampshire to interior MA….. You can tell instantly that person has had almost no experience forecasting in New England. That guy is genuinely a tool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That just is genuinely a tool. The first thing I always looked at when forecasting for the monadnocks and ORH hills in Decembers was to pull up the SST anomaly map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The Pacific is definitely the biggest difference between the GFS suite and the ECMWF suite. GFS has been screwing around with the troughs out west more aggressively than the Euro. Yeah GEFS brings the MJO around 5 and 6 while EPS is COD. Maybe the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Thanks Dave! I wish but I did turn 64 in 2010. Analog? Happy Happy birthday old man winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 Remember that alot of these periods of big blocking can begin on a frustrating note...we had Boxing day hug and dry slot many to conclude a December that featured less snow than one may expect given the pattern...and March 2018 began with a pretty big bust early in the month....but these dates get forgotten given the 20 day orgy that followed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Winter cancel ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 Its almost like subsidence on either side of a CSI band...these very active periods are often book ended by quisiecence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GFS punts till after mid month We’ve been trying to tell people today. Caution flags waving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter cancel ? Yesterday it was guns blazing and today panic There's no reason to panic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We’ve been trying to tell people today. Caution flags waving. White Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Happy Happy birthday old man winter Thanks Steve! 76 feels old but heading out to dinner with my wife and then home to take a sip of Royal Salute 21-gift from my son delivered today. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Well, at least the heating bills won't be staggering this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 lol that's wild. That's 4 rain events to Canada on the 18z GFS and gearing up for #5 at Day 16. There's no panic, it's just comical. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol that's wild. That's 4 rain events to Canada on the 18z GFS and gearing up for #5 at Day 16. There's no panic, it's just comical. Worry creeping into corners to be sure though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol that's wild. That's 4 rain events to Canada on the 18z GFS and gearing up for #5 at Day 16. There's no panic, it's just comical. I remember when we had a massive cutter on 12/12/10 in the middle of that monster block and the meltdowns were just epic. Stuff like “the cutter should be impossible because there’s a -NAO”. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Worry creeping into corners to be sure though Then worry turns to . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I remember when we had a massive cutter on 12/12/10 in the middle of that monster block and the meltdowns were just epic. Stuff like “the cutter should be impossible because there’s a -NAO”. Lol. They’re coming. If 12-12 is a cutter, I fully expect all hell to break loose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The weenies on the bus go up and down…up and down…up and down 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GFS punts till the end of the month fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Remember that alot of these periods of big blocking can begin on a frustrating note...we had Boxing day hug and dry slot many to conclude a December that featured less snow than one may expect given the pattern...and March 2018 began with a pretty big bust early in the month....but these dates get forgotten given the 20 day orgy that followed. I would call Boxing Day a major win if we get a warning level event out of this upcoming pattern . Warning snows with lollipops to 15+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I remember when we had a massive cutter on 12/12/10 in the middle of that monster block and the meltdowns were just epic. Stuff like “the cutter should be impossible because there’s a -NAO”. Lol. 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They’re coming. If 12-12 is a cutter, I fully expect all hell to break loose. You can book it. Mass weenie casualty event by the Ides of December. The only question is whether destruction comes by a meteor hurled from a random European 12z run or from within as weenies pull knives and hunting rifles on each other in a gradient event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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