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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh, it’s early, and guidance is waffling a bit. I think it’s prudent for most people to keep expectations in check.

I think a disappointment at this time year would be a shutout through 12/20. Despite the good pattern ahead, I would take 2-4" in mid December and be content. 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's possible no threat materializes before mid-month.

That wouldn’t shock me , The volatility on the runs is going to be so extreme and if the feature of west coast heights getting lower after the 10’th solidifies ill be adjusting a tad downward . Nothing dramatic but just noting . I honestly really just want the cutters to stop raining all over ski country every 3 days And I’ll be pretty content . 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will  posting 360 hr clown maps Seems like a contrarian signal 

People want clown maps that show good snow. That’s really what the anxiety is all about. Deep down many won’t admit that it’s the OP runs not showing blizzards is what is concerning to them….it’s not the ensemble mean they are concerned about. 
 

You’d think it wouldn’t be that way since most posters here have been on these forums for years (if not decades). 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big picture-not alot of change in today's guidance.   But I"m kind of astounded that people are crying over 12/7-8.   We have to get some snow to calm weenies down!

I still think we need to watch the follow up wave (Dec 9…maybe as early as Dec 8 or late as Dec 10) for something. It wouldn’t be huge but it could be one of those fast movers if things align. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People want clown maps that show good snow. That’s really what the anxiety is all about. Deep down many won’t admit that it’s the OP runs not showing blizzards is what is concerning to them….it’s not the ensemble mean they are concerned about. 
 

You’d think it wouldn’t be that way since most posters here have been on these forums for years (if not decades). 

I think it’s partially that and partially that people have been talking and posting about this period now a solid week but it seems the Chance increase that the good pattern got kicked back today  Another couple days , so we maybe kinda waiting and hoping for la la land (2 week out period to hold ) that is part of it , maybe it’s not . But I’m really just more having fun with posts today , it’s a long wait 

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Pattern change set in during early Dec 2010....here's what it looked like for 16 days Dec 5-20, 2010.....BOS, ORH, and PVD all had zero measurable snow during this 16 day stretch. BDL had 0.3" from a squall I think.

This isn't trying to scare anyone, but it reiterates that great patterns can sometimes not produce, or take a while to produce. WE know it eventually went gangbusters, but it didn't happen right away. OTher years like 1995 it happens almost right away.

 

 

Dec5-20.2010.gif

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies tank the NAO

how can they tank the NAO any further, jesus.  If that ridge builds any taller the Artemis missions may as well be scrubbed because astronauts could just step from the top of that doom right upon the surface of the moon

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the one post I need or care to read after a bust afternoon.

All good.

Let me give the disclaimer that I don't care if the heights over SC were 5 meters higher than 00z. I am talking from a more broader look. I'm not getting into the nitty gritty of minor details. For instance the GFS guidance definitely was a change. That deserves a discussion. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let me give the disclaimer that I don't care if the heights over SC were 5 meters higher than 00z. I am talking from a more broader look. I'm not getting into the nitty gritty of minor details. For instance the GFS guidance definitely was a change. That deserves a discussion. 

Yea, I don't care about the noise that people like @greenmtnwxuse as a vehicle for torture.

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