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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

When something good pops up it's going to come out of nowhere a few days before. We just watch and wait.

This is prob not far from the truth. Not uncommon at all for models to be all over the place until much closer on individual storm threats. Esp in a high blocking pattern. 

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I will say guidance around the 11th 12th 13th seems to be a little volatile. So it wouldn’t shock me if that window is a little shaky. But I mean overall I can’t complain. EPS really looks good to me.

 

Its too early to get too deterministic with storm chances imo. I just try to look at it from a broad or holistic point of view. Everything I see looks pretty good.

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1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

When something good pops up it's going to come out of nowhere a few days before. We just watch and wait.

It’s not a bad take.  

Really … other than the specter of the block itself, there’s really some exceptionally bad model continuity right now - really rather stunningly poor.

I think the draw on the eyes toward the -NAO might even be masking that. It’s still the more important responsibility, that these models show modicum of clue but even the day fours have been a little bit dicey… so as that day is in the approximate 9 to 14 or 16 range we may be still dealing with some of that  

 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say guidance around the 11th 12th 13th seems to be a little volatile. So it wouldn’t shock me if that window is a little shaky. But I mean overall I can’t complain. EPS really looks good to me.

 

Its too early to get too deterministic with storm chances imo. I just try to look at it from a broad or holistic point of view. Everything I see looks pretty good.

Today’s guidance agreed on some lower hgts off the west coast to start that period. We eventually get to that good look but a bit of a can kick today. Perhaps it reverses back tonight 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s not a bad take.  

Really … other than the specter of the block itself, there’s really some exceptionally bad model continuity right now - really rather stunningly poor.

I think the draw on the eyes toward the -NAO might even be masking that. It’s still the more important responsibility, that these models show modicum of clue but even the day fours have been a little bit dicey… so as that day is in the approximate 9 to 14 or 16 range we may be still dealing with some of that  

 

The Pacific look keeps changing in that Dec 8-13 time range. Most of the storm threats are going to be from the pacific as shortwave eject out and underneath the block....and there's the added complexity of the central/southeastern ridge in the process of retrograding westward which also mucks up the ability for guidance to show a lot of continuity in handling shortwave traversing the flow.

So basically we get:

Atlantic ---> Stable on guidance

Pacific ---> Volatile on guidance

CONUS ---> Semi-volatile on guidance

Not a good recipe for getting consistent storm threats showing up on model guidance.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say guidance around the 11th 12th 13th seems to be a little volatile. So it wouldn’t shock me if that window is a little shaky. But I mean overall I can’t complain. EPS really looks good to me.

I think we can push things back to say the 14’th or so and nobody will blink 

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is still great with alot of ensembles having storms off the coast.

Glad you look at the individual members… Don’t be shy about doing that with the GEFS members either.

People need to get in the habit of doing that. What’s the harm in doing it if people want to see the modeling cinema. They got 31 different movies going simultaneously…haha. 

there are some GEFS members with monster solutions near in the Dell Marva to Long Island and in fact the recent trend from the blended mean is showing steadily lowering heights in that area on the 14th which and I have been talking about that period for five days so I have no problem with it. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Glad you look at the individual members… Don’t be shy about doing that with the GEFS members either.

People need to get in the habit of doing that. What’s the harm in doing it if people want to see the modeling cinema. They got 31 different movies going simultaneously…haha. 

there are some GEFS members with monster solutions near in the Dell Marva to Long Island and in fact the recent trend from the blended mean is showing steadily lowering heights in that area on the 14th which and I have been talking about that period for five days so I have no problem with it. 

Ray ran P16 member from his basement

 

Dec1_12zEPS16.png

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