SJonesWX Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think about 15-20% of the posts are going to be readable over the next 10 days. I'll take the under on the % 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 We know the pattern is still good till forky starts posting in the forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: 576dm over my head? You'll be peeling yourself off the turf outside the coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 43 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yup, modeled block looks great in 2 weeks. Will it hold? Will it actually deliver a storm? Remain to be seen. I’m certainly not counting on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 You do have to like the OP tease at day 9 on euro with Jerry’s elephant of marine puke air from Caribou to East port with rains there and snows SW . That warms the cockles of the heart . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: When something good pops up it's going to come out of nowhere a few days before. We just watch and wait. This is prob not far from the truth. Not uncommon at all for models to be all over the place until much closer on individual storm threats. Esp in a high blocking pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Eps still looks great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m certainly not counting on it Shocked 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 EPS still looks really good. it’s been the most consistent by far, and it’s pattern progression makes the most sense given the retrograding block and what they often do to the waveguide 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 PAC almost looking slightly El-Ninoish at the end. Subtle drop in heights SW of Aleutians and pumping of heights over AK and PNA ridge region. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 34 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: I'll take the under on the % It's Dec 1st and we already have 45 pages! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I will say guidance around the 11th 12th 13th seems to be a little volatile. So it wouldn’t shock me if that window is a little shaky. But I mean overall I can’t complain. EPS really looks good to me. Its too early to get too deterministic with storm chances imo. I just try to look at it from a broad or holistic point of view. Everything I see looks pretty good. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: When something good pops up it's going to come out of nowhere a few days before. We just watch and wait. It’s not a bad take. Really … other than the specter of the block itself, there’s really some exceptionally bad model continuity right now - really rather stunningly poor. I think the draw on the eyes toward the -NAO might even be masking that. It’s still the more important responsibility, that these models show modicum of clue but even the day fours have been a little bit dicey… so as that day is in the approximate 9 to 14 or 16 range we may be still dealing with some of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m certainly not counting on it Well we knew this was coming. Pattern looks very good…all you can ask for at the moment. It’ll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I mean nothing really seems unchanged ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well we knew this was coming. Pattern looks very good…all you can ask for at the moment. It’ll happen. Eps is still great with alot of ensembles having storms off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: ? What changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I will say guidance around the 11th 12th 13th seems to be a little volatile. So it wouldn’t shock me if that window is a little shaky. But I mean overall I can’t complain. EPS really looks good to me. Its too early to get too deterministic with storm chances imo. I just try to look at it from a broad or holistic point of view. Everything I see looks pretty good. Today’s guidance agreed on some lower hgts off the west coast to start that period. We eventually get to that good look but a bit of a can kick today. Perhaps it reverses back tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s not a bad take. Really … other than the specter of the block itself, there’s really some exceptionally bad model continuity right now - really rather stunningly poor. I think the draw on the eyes toward the -NAO might even be masking that. It’s still the more important responsibility, that these models show modicum of clue but even the day fours have been a little bit dicey… so as that day is in the approximate 9 to 14 or 16 range we may be still dealing with some of that The Pacific look keeps changing in that Dec 8-13 time range. Most of the storm threats are going to be from the pacific as shortwave eject out and underneath the block....and there's the added complexity of the central/southeastern ridge in the process of retrograding westward which also mucks up the ability for guidance to show a lot of continuity in handling shortwave traversing the flow. So basically we get: Atlantic ---> Stable on guidance Pacific ---> Volatile on guidance CONUS ---> Semi-volatile on guidance Not a good recipe for getting consistent storm threats showing up on model guidance. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What changed? Who cares. I was joking about his use of the double negative. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I will say guidance around the 11th 12th 13th seems to be a little volatile. So it wouldn’t shock me if that window is a little shaky. But I mean overall I can’t complain. EPS really looks good to me. I think we can push things back to say the 14’th or so and nobody will blink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 58 minutes ago, radarman said: It could always be worse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think we can push things back to say the 14’th or so and nobody will blink Are people looking ahead of that date for winter storms? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is still great with alot of ensembles having storms off the coast. Glad you look at the individual members… Don’t be shy about doing that with the GEFS members either. People need to get in the habit of doing that. What’s the harm in doing it if people want to see the modeling cinema. They got 31 different movies going simultaneously…haha. there are some GEFS members with monster solutions near in the Dell Marva to Long Island and in fact the recent trend from the blended mean is showing steadily lowering heights in that area on the 14th which and I have been talking about that period for five days so I have no problem with it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Are people looking ahead of that date for winter storms? It depends where you live so I dunno , can you see further out than 2 weeks thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Glad you look at the individual members… Don’t be shy about doing that with the GEFS members either. People need to get in the habit of doing that. What’s the harm in doing it if people want to see the modeling cinema. They got 31 different movies going simultaneously…haha. there are some GEFS members with monster solutions near in the Dell Marva to Long Island and in fact the recent trend from the blended mean is showing steadily lowering heights in that area on the 14th which and I have been talking about that period for five days so I have no problem with it. Ray ran P16 member from his basement 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 The control run was more for me and Tip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shocked Meh, it’s early, and guidance is waffling a bit. I think it’s prudent for most people to keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It depends where you live so I dunno , can you see further out than 2 weeks thou It's possible no threat materializes before mid-month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Will posting 360 hr clown maps Seems like a contrarian signal 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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