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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point...

Yeah it's definitely about 300-400 miles south of yesterday's 12z run. Not sure it means much though....EPS didn't trend with the block between 12z and 00z...so I'd want to see other guidance do it too.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If you are going to analyze every 10 meter height rise or fall, you’re going to be hospitalized. When I look at the big picture (like did the blocking weaken rapidly or Pacific go to crap etc) I don’t see anything noteworthy. Ensembles by nature will always have minor fluctuations every 12 hrs. It’s up to the person looking at them to decipher trends. Those trends take a few days to figure out. 

surely you didn't think I was serious

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno...that would sort of ruin the Holiday. I'm good with several inches falling that day or having people buried alive two days before or after Christmas.

why can't we have both?

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Luckily for us they come to us. I can't imagine being stranded with 20 or so people including like 8 kids. I definitely would be hitting Jerry's Crown and edibles and outside shoveling constantly, hiding in the shed hitting the pipe lol.

One of the best things my parents ever did was stop the practice of visiting other family on Thanksgiving and Christmas when I was 13 or 14. It was just us and it’s amazing to wake up and not have to worry about spending the holidays elsewhere.

No getting dressed up, no family politics, no fighting over the TV, and no sharing food with others lol. Just immediate family time. 

I plan to carry on that tradition.

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I guess one thing I would really like to see become better established on guidance is a better configuration of the height anomalies in the EPO/PNA region and have the ridge axis oriented more S-N into the Gulf of Alaska. You sort of have that look in the medium-range (on the 6z GEFS) but the stout SE ridge and the ridging from the PNA ridge gets pinched off within the West. But getting a configuration would help substantially with establishing a cross polar flow. 

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7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You know what would be great, if we could just jump to December 11th. Then we'll all feel more comfortable with what outcome we're going to be seeing four days later.. lol

I think everybody wants a definitive answer on if we're getting a storm, if it's a large snowstorm, if it's a miss to the south, ect... The problem with some of us on here is we wanted an immediate answer now, and we take every single model run as if that's going to be the final outcome.

Things are changing, but it's still going to be a week or so until we know for sure... Patients little grasshoppers 

I don’t disagree with any of that in principle but I suspect … if we want to drill down into the psychobabble aspect, there is a little bit of mmm I don’t wanna use the word dependency, but there is a kind of thrill-seeking addiction that happens.

I’m not gaslighting the group here by any means. I’m really not. Hell I’m part of it.  But as an honest attempt at an objective observation, it is affecting us here like it affects everyone in society - to some degree

We’ve turned the model releases times  into kind of a cinema that provided that thrill:rush. I mean sometimes it’s all but coherent that we want the model runs before the storm more than the actual storm itself lol.   And if the cinema isn’t showing that finishing scene, that gives emotion and ‘emptiness’. - endorphin loss there. 

That’s why we’ve been joking about drugs and Narcan and all this other shit …we all know it’s true.

It’s part of the stuff they been talking about on the news and the documentaries about how addictive the Internet has become.

You know… As a totally separate subject matter it’s been used influentially as a manipulation and divisive tactic. One of the reasons why society has so much polarization right now and the sword of schismatic cultural belief systems that are hateful. And hate to use the trope but they are tearing up the fabric… Etc. It’s actually really interesting subject matter. If people are interested check out the ‘dystopimentary’   “The Social Dilemma”. The last I knew it was on Netflix but I don’t know if they’re carrying that anymore. But they have been like 60 minutes exposes on this and other infoshows are surfacing

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Don’t look at the geps 

It's all trash after day 4 because they assume the trough dumps west and the PV shifts NW allowing SE ridge & developing block to connect 

Notable PNA rise over next 3 days following MJO passage into 8 will stop that from happening. 

Just you wait

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they have to take the thing out back and shoot it. it has no idea how to handle the Pacific right now

total flip flop each run for the last two model cycles

ezgif-1-6f2572e4c5.thumb.gif.ff6638ebb7e52c5bb7946d9037cc35e6.gif

I wonder if this is driven by the lack of data points within the Pacific (especially northern Pacific). We can upgrade models and resolutions and physics all we want but if you're still lacking the quality data to ingest it doesn't really matter. Now...not sure what you can really do given its a giant body of water but it sucks nonetheless. 

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS eventually looks ok. Takes a bit longer.

If needed we can just push that back to it merges with next relaxation phase 
 

kidding but you don’t want a trend pushing back and back for a week , we aren’t there but it’s not a good look were that to play out in future (not saying It will !) 

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Yeah after reading the posts I eventually looked at GEFS and they certainly looked wintry enough.   Block is further south but at the same time the EPO has less amplitude so it could be a wash.  I suspect we’d be fine with a gradient.   Not sure about a big dog.

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Just a thought… But yesterday those rumors floating around that the new version of the GFS system was somehow corrupting the assimilation data - maybe Chris knows something about that?

but the thought is that since I’m pretty sure the Canadians purchase a lot of ingest data from the GFS grids maybe they’re being affected by that. A lot of supposition there but worth a question. Maybe the relationships are all different now

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s just where folks have differing views. To me .. you really only have DJF and after that it’s spring . Sure it snows after that, but it’s high solar angle season and not preferable . I hate wasting December. Just my opinion 

Morch on, brother!

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just a thought… But yesterday those rumors floating around that the new version of the GFS system was somehow corrupting the assimilation data - maybe Chris knows something about that?

but the thought is that since I’m pretty sure the Canadians purchase a lot of ingest data from the GFS grids maybe they’re being affected by that. A lot of supposition there but worth a question. Maybe the relationships are all different now

Good point.  Seeing the dramatic shift in height fields was pretty remarkable.

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yesterday knocked us back to grass but the cold westerly flow into the hills is trying to whiten it back up in the valley.

Wintry appeal I guess?

 

Had a decent streamer go through at home in the last hour...whitened everything back up until the sun came back out.

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