WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Now that's a block! Somebody just said they look ugly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point... Yeah it's definitely about 300-400 miles south of yesterday's 12z run. Not sure it means much though....EPS didn't trend with the block between 12z and 00z...so I'd want to see other guidance do it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: If you are going to analyze every 10 meter height rise or fall, you’re going to be hospitalized. When I look at the big picture (like did the blocking weaken rapidly or Pacific go to crap etc) I don’t see anything noteworthy. Ensembles by nature will always have minor fluctuations every 12 hrs. It’s up to the person looking at them to decipher trends. Those trends take a few days to figure out. surely you didn't think I was serious 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno...that would sort of ruin the Holiday. I'm good with several inches falling that day or having people buried alive two days before or after Christmas. why can't we have both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen I can smell the scent of fermenting seal blubber already. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GEFS looks fugly thru day 10. Lobe breaks off of PV and heights build behind it. Yup……. It’s going to be a while I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If it makes anybody feel any better it’s below normal today… Yesterday knocked us back to grass but the cold westerly flow into the hills is trying to whiten it back up in the valley. Wintry appeal I guess? High wind up at 1500ft. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Luckily for us they come to us. I can't imagine being stranded with 20 or so people including like 8 kids. I definitely would be hitting Jerry's Crown and edibles and outside shoveling constantly, hiding in the shed hitting the pipe lol. One of the best things my parents ever did was stop the practice of visiting other family on Thanksgiving and Christmas when I was 13 or 14. It was just us and it’s amazing to wake up and not have to worry about spending the holidays elsewhere. No getting dressed up, no family politics, no fighting over the TV, and no sharing food with others lol. Just immediate family time. I plan to carry on that tradition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I guess one thing I would really like to see become better established on guidance is a better configuration of the height anomalies in the EPO/PNA region and have the ridge axis oriented more S-N into the Gulf of Alaska. You sort of have that look in the medium-range (on the 6z GEFS) but the stout SE ridge and the ridging from the PNA ridge gets pinched off within the West. But getting a configuration would help substantially with establishing a cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen Garbage runs By tomorrow they'll look completely different 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Garbage runs By tomorrow they'll look completely different Don’t look at the geps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Spread and run-to-run variations should be expected and will happen. Obviously for many reasons, but perhaps one driving factor in that is the spread within the PNA. That's a pretty sizable spread and (especially when considering structure) could have substantial impacts overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Somebody just said they look ugly though. You're welcome to refute what I wrote. I stand by my post. GEFS looks like garbage thru day 10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: You know what would be great, if we could just jump to December 11th. Then we'll all feel more comfortable with what outcome we're going to be seeing four days later.. lol I think everybody wants a definitive answer on if we're getting a storm, if it's a large snowstorm, if it's a miss to the south, ect... The problem with some of us on here is we wanted an immediate answer now, and we take every single model run as if that's going to be the final outcome. Things are changing, but it's still going to be a week or so until we know for sure... Patients little grasshoppers I don’t disagree with any of that in principle but I suspect … if we want to drill down into the psychobabble aspect, there is a little bit of mmm I don’t wanna use the word dependency, but there is a kind of thrill-seeking addiction that happens. I’m not gaslighting the group here by any means. I’m really not. Hell I’m part of it. But as an honest attempt at an objective observation, it is affecting us here like it affects everyone in society - to some degree We’ve turned the model releases times into kind of a cinema that provided that thrill:rush. I mean sometimes it’s all but coherent that we want the model runs before the storm more than the actual storm itself lol. And if the cinema isn’t showing that finishing scene, that gives emotion and ‘emptiness’. - endorphin loss there. That’s why we’ve been joking about drugs and Narcan and all this other shit …we all know it’s true. It’s part of the stuff they been talking about on the news and the documentaries about how addictive the Internet has become. You know… As a totally separate subject matter it’s been used influentially as a manipulation and divisive tactic. One of the reasons why society has so much polarization right now and the sword of schismatic cultural belief systems that are hateful. And hate to use the trope but they are tearing up the fabric… Etc. It’s actually really interesting subject matter. If people are interested check out the ‘dystopimentary’ “The Social Dilemma”. The last I knew it was on Netflix but I don’t know if they’re carrying that anymore. But they have been like 60 minutes exposes on this and other infoshows are surfacing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Don’t look at the geps It's all trash after day 4 because they assume the trough dumps west and the PV shifts NW allowing SE ridge & developing block to connect Notable PNA rise over next 3 days following MJO passage into 8 will stop that from happening. Just you wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Don’t look at the geps they have to take the thing out back and shoot it. it has no idea how to handle the Pacific right now total flip flop each run for the last two model cycles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 The lower heights keep shifting deeper into Florida past day 10, at least today it looks more like a cold and dry time period. Congrats Mid Atlantic? Hopefully just a blip though....wait for the EPS, GEPS was no help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 is this the part where everyone starts freaking out? 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: they have to take the thing out back and shoot it. it has no idea how to handle the Pacific right now total flip flop each run for the last two model cycles I wonder if this is driven by the lack of data points within the Pacific (especially northern Pacific). We can upgrade models and resolutions and physics all we want but if you're still lacking the quality data to ingest it doesn't really matter. Now...not sure what you can really do given its a giant body of water but it sucks nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: is this the part where everyone starts freaking out? To be completely honest, we tend to freak out in every part 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 GEFS eventually looks ok. Takes a bit longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: is this the part where everyone starts freaking out? Yeah, you'll start seeing toaster baths if threats don't start materializing in the next 7-10 days in the operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS eventually looks ok. Takes a bit longer. If needed we can just push that back to it merges with next relaxation phase kidding but you don’t want a trend pushing back and back for a week , we aren’t there but it’s not a good look were that to play out in future (not saying It will !) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You're welcome to refute what I wrote. I stand by my post. GEFS looks like garbage thru day 10. Not refuting anything Bob…just made a statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Yeah after reading the posts I eventually looked at GEFS and they certainly looked wintry enough. Block is further south but at the same time the EPO has less amplitude so it could be a wash. I suspect we’d be fine with a gradient. Not sure about a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just a thought… But yesterday those rumors floating around that the new version of the GFS system was somehow corrupting the assimilation data - maybe Chris knows something about that? but the thought is that since I’m pretty sure the Canadians purchase a lot of ingest data from the GFS grids maybe they’re being affected by that. A lot of supposition there but worth a question. Maybe the relationships are all different now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, you'll start seeing toaster baths if threats don't start materializing in the next 7-10 days in the operational runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s just where folks have differing views. To me .. you really only have DJF and after that it’s spring . Sure it snows after that, but it’s high solar angle season and not preferable . I hate wasting December. Just my opinion Morch on, brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Morch on, brother! He really needs to move out west with some elevation....that's where the seasons match the solar insolation the most. We're significantly more lagged here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just a thought… But yesterday those rumors floating around that the new version of the GFS system was somehow corrupting the assimilation data - maybe Chris knows something about that? but the thought is that since I’m pretty sure the Canadians purchase a lot of ingest data from the GFS grids maybe they’re being affected by that. A lot of supposition there but worth a question. Maybe the relationships are all different now Good point. Seeing the dramatic shift in height fields was pretty remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yesterday knocked us back to grass but the cold westerly flow into the hills is trying to whiten it back up in the valley. Wintry appeal I guess? Had a decent streamer go through at home in the last hour...whitened everything back up until the sun came back out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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