STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 That gfs storm on the 13’th is a beaut . Part of me wants to see that play out . It’s waaay out in Lala land but its part of the red flags that I think tip was alluding to can occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The GFS at 12 Z offers yet another option… Completely remove any effect of the NAO exertion …allowing 13.14.15 to Grinch through the Lakes. you know the recurrence of that kind of phenomenon is getting more and more difficult as the years go by to believe it’s purely random lol No but I’m not sure this model run really fits the mode of what’s going on here. I’d probably give this run a lower probability of success Ya, I think it has a much lower probability of success too. it would be a kin to having that run show a massive east coast cold/snow system, with a pattern that has a raging pig over Alaska, and a -PNA to Costa Rica..doesn’t fit the pattern being progged. Pretty low chance imo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: See I don’t look at it like that on 12/1…by 12/20 then yes, it would be a lost day. But not yet. Imo. That’s just where folks have differing views. To me .. you really only have DJF and after that it’s spring . Sure it snows after that, but it’s high solar angle season and not preferable . I hate wasting December. Just my opinion 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 GFS/GEFS after day 4 is laughably bad and inaccurate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s just where folks have differing views. To me .. you really only have DJF and after that it’s spring . Sure it snows after that, but it’s high solar angle season and not preferable . I hate wasting December. Just my opinion Understood. But I don’t think we’re gonna waste December though. It can’t snow every day, and we have to establish this incoming pattern first, and the timing seems dam good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Did we come full circle from yesterday’s elation, back to we lost December? Asking for a friend. 2 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I mean that GFS op run was frighteningly ugly lol. Was just a different flavor of dog doo then our current one Thankfully we all agree it’s tossed Currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I like the idea of everything stopping. Part of what I dislike about the holiday is feeling forced to visit other places rather than taking the time to just be at home. Well that's what the john Daniels is for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I mean that GFS op run was frighteningly ugly lol. Was just a different flavor of dog doo then our current one Thankfully we all agree it’s tossed yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: JMA has weeklies? You pay to access that? Its like me paying to access @weatherwiz's drunken accounts of Wolfpack games while 4 40s deep. drunken accounts of Wolfpack games while 4 40s deep. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I mean that GFS run was frighteningly ugly lol GEFS incoming It doesn’t fit the progged pattern though…if the GEFS show another beaut of a pattern that it has for days…then I would certainly feel confident the OP is baked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have this same dream. This aligns well with wanting as many trees and lines downed as possible in wind/ storm events. Don’t want anyone getting hurt , but do like, need, want and enjoy tree and line damage. It's suddenly becoming clear... you must be a managing director at Neversource 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It doesn’t fit the progged pattern though…if the GEFS show another beaut of a pattern that it has for days…then I would certainly feel confident the OP is baked. For sure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen Not sure about retrograding back into NS like that but we have see blocks positioned like that. Actually there are some -NAO's where the core of the anomalies extends so far south that parts of NNE actually feature above-average temps during those periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Merry Christmas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen And just to be funnin’ …I actually wouldn’t mind that position in a scalar sense of it if we could just lop about 30 or 40 dam off the top of that sucker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I like the idea of everything stopping. Part of what I dislike about the holiday is feeling forced to visit other places rather than taking the time to just be at home. Luckily for us they come to us. I can't imagine being stranded with 20 or so people including like 8 kids. I definitely would be hitting Jerry's Crown and edibles and outside shoveling constantly, hiding in the shed hitting the pipe lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Again again again… The NAO is notoriously stochastic in guidance handling. The fact that this one’s been behaving doing better over the last week or so is really an anomaly in itself we’ve been lucky up to this point not to be dealing with that but you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I’d caution the victory laps on how great this period is going to be until we actually see some snow. OP runs are OP runs, but outside of once cycle yesterday, they’ve looked like doggy poo, even in the extended. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 GGEM was a close miss for Dec 9th....prob gonna be a lot of large run to run swings on these threats more than a week out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it really a Grinch if there are no gifts (snow) to steal? lol Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Now that's a block! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Absolutely I’d also say people should be more worried about actually getting something to materialize in this pattern than worrying about a potential grinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, Spanks45 said: Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point... At the same time it brings more ringing into Alaska, seems like a whole scale shift. Maybe just a blip, but it does give us a different look for the day 10-15 day period on this particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 GEFS looks fugly thru day 10. Lobe breaks off of PV and heights build behind it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 You know what would be great, if we could just jump to December 11th. Then we'll all feel more comfortable with what outcome we're going to be seeing four days later.. lol I think everybody wants a definitive answer on if we're getting a storm, if it's a large snowstorm, if it's a miss to the south, ect... The problem with some of us on here is we wanted an immediate answer now, and we take every single model run as if that's going to be the final outcome. Things are changing, but it's still going to be a week or so until we know for sure... Patients little grasshoppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 If it makes anybody feel any better it’s below normal today… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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