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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just not enough buns for this.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno...that would sort of ruin the Holiday. I'm good with several inches falling that day or having people buried alive two days before or after Christmas.

I like the idea of everything stopping. Part of what I dislike about the holiday is feeling forced to visit other places rather than taking the time to just be at home. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's never been a real chance here. Just one poster in NE CT at 995' that bought it.

I don’t think that is accurate 

will mentioned it was close to being a lot more wintry for more of the forum if we could get the PV press 100-200 miles south at an 8 day lead time on Tuesday 

it just hasn’t trended that way in last 36 hrs 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening.

As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.

I have this same dream. This aligns well with wanting as many trees and lines downed as possible in wind/ storm events. Don’t want anyone getting hurt , but do like, need, want and enjoy tree and line damage. 

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t think that is accurate 

will mentioned it was close to being a lot more wintry for more of the forum if we could get the PV press 100-200 miles south at an 8 day lead time on Tuesday 

it just hasn’t trended that way in last 36 hrs 

Pretty sure Will was not enthusiastic about it. I said it was something to watch for NNE and commented again to watch it (thinking maybe nrn and western areas here in SNE may get something wintry) ...but both of us said more or less it was a long shot in most areas of SNE. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening.

As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.

Let's get this up to James Jr levels, I want a 16 bun salute 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty sure Will was not enthusiastic about it. I said it was something to watch for NNE and commented again to watch it (thinking maybe nrn and western areas here in SNE may get something wintry) ...but both of us said more or less it was a long shot in most areas of SNE. 

Yeah it was intriguing that it was trending colder, but now that the trend sort of stopped....it's pretty meh. It was always tougher for us too vs NNE.

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The GFS at 12 Z offers yet another option… Completely remove any effect of the NAO exertion …allowing 13.14.15 to Grinch through the Lakes. 
 
you know the recurrence of that kind of phenomenon is getting more and more difficult as the years go by to believe it’s purely random lol

No but I’m not sure this model run really fits the mode of what’s going on here.  I’d probably give this run a lower probability of success

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was intriguing that it was trending colder, but now that the trend sort of stopped....it's pretty meh. It was always tougher for us too vs NNE.

It will trend colder just you wait. 

Btw ignore the nonsense of the SE ridge and block linking up. 

Models do this because they dump the trough out west after day 4 however you can clearly see a trend of models building a ridge in the Rockies before that.

The Rockies ridge trend will continue and press the Hudson PV further S&E. 

I think everything after Day 4 is garbage on this suite, ops & ensembles 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS at 12 Z as yet another option… Completely remove any effect of the NAO exertion …allowing 13.14.15 to Grinch through the Lakes. 
 
you know the recurrence of that kind of phenomenon is getting more and more difficult as the years go by to believe it’s purely random lol

No but I’m not sure this model run really fits the mode of what’s going on here.  I’d probably give this run a lower probability of success

Is it really a Grinch if there are no gifts (snow) to steal? lol

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is it really a Grinch if there are no gifts (snow) to steal? lol

Oh it’s even worse… I mean after two weeks of build up that should’ve gone the other direction then do that? It’s even worse because at least in the other since you did get some snow at some point.  

I guess just since we’re being silly here… the upshot is that that happens on the 13th and 14th and there’s plenty of time to manufacture something in the recovery period after - assuming there will be one. 

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