December 2022 Obs/Disc

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I'm feeling the spirit, so I'm going to make a proclamation (especially since the pope seems to be absent, gotta step up):

I am about 80% confident that there will be significant EC cyclogenesis during the period from Dec 16 to Dec 21. Prior to that, I think there will be a lower impact storm, probably an inland/NNE event (btween Dec 12-14) which forms a 50-50 low that will entrain future cyclogenesis to the east coast, as well as **brings the baroclinic zone farther south**.

I'm not a professional nor a seasoned forecaster, so I only stand to gain reputation or to retain my rank as a member of the "Weenie" class. 

Dec 12th/13th storm:

- coincident with PNA positive delta Dec 10-12

- Coincident with NAO retrograte from Greenland to Davis Strait

- poor antecendent airmass/lack of well-positioned baroclinic zone leads to angst for EMATT weenies

In between:

- renewal of cold

- establishment of favorable baroclinic zone

- establishment of favorable confluence

For December 16-21 storm:

This will be the storm that occurs as Pac ridging that starts near the 10th peaks and begins to disintegrate. Things could go wrong, disclaimers, allegedly-speak, yada yada. I think that this is a period with high potential. If I were to guess storm evolution, I would predict something southern-stream, sort of like a Dec 2009 deal. The coincidence of ridge peaking and decaying with NAO decaying and retrograding is very promising.

 

I accept any weenie tags thrown my way, and it will be fun to verify my prophecy. If the pope is gone, i sorta feel like a deranged and less coherent Martin Luther, yet instead of nailing my theses to the door of a church, I am scrawling in red crayon my manic and redbull-fueled ramblings all over the walls of the hallowed halls housing the northeastern American weather intelligentsia.

Fun fact: Martin Luther was constipated for most of his life. This is another differentiator: my access to diuretics, as hinted at above, sets me apart from Martin Luther in this specific dimension

 

ha, you're talking about weenie tags but all of this makes meteorological sense, and I agree with all of it

the two main windows I'm watching now are indeed the 12-14th and the period between the 17th and 23rd or so. the big dog would be when the block decays the week of the 19th most likely

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

I read a lot of your shit so probably has some influence on my process/pattern recog.

I wouldn't say that....I just think we are on the same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ha, you're talking about weenie tags but all of this makes meteorological sense, and I agree with all of it

the two main windows I'm watching now are indeed the 12-14th and the period between the 17th and 23rd or so. the big dog would be when the block decays the week of the 19th most likely

I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening.

As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.

[Typhoon Tip]

The PNA is the mass field that’s demonstrating the greater variability during this era of outlook projections. Interesting. 

It’s interesting because there’s been a pattern of more vs less sensible impact east of 100W in either the operational, or the ensemble mean, when/if they take turn bulging more or less +PNA/+PNAP respectively.

In other words … the sensitivity over whether we produce or fail over the next weeks of this thing appears to be mainly of Pacific origin.

Strange to see the NAO of all stochastic pain in the neck indices be so shoulder rubbing stable. 

[Hailstoned]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The following Decembers had at least one day where the AO reached -4 SD (dataset goes to 1950)

2009
1976
2010
2000
1968
1963
1950
1995
1978
1962
1966

1968 sure brings back the memories-- a trio of storms in rapid succession culminating on the 12th in the worst blizzard conditions I have ever encountered, including the blizzard of 78-- granted, my location was at 1500 feet elevation in SW New Hampshire.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't say that....I just think we are on the same page.

I will say that I'd like to start a blog a la your stuff at some point, after a few more years of tracking and posting/lurking. You downplay your writing's influence, but I've personally been a fan since about 2017, so I think it's accurate to state that your process has influenced my thinking somewhat, especially with regards to pattern recognition as opposed to the more technical specific processes which still elude me.

You've mentioned getting at forecasting through a information synthesis and identifying relevant structures/patterns style as opposed to starting from the mechanistic level and working your way up. I think I have a similar process, meaning that I enjoy learning about specific mechanisms as they are entrained within larger, more qualitative schemata

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening.

As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.

In third grade, I wrote a little novel for my teacher (about 40 pages, with size 18ish font if I recall?) about a blizzard which rendered travel impossible for a month, and that sort of apocalyptic scenario. Needless to say, he was concerned but amused.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The PNA is the mass field that’s demonstrating the greater variability during this era of outlook projections. Interesting. 

It’s interesting because there’s been a pattern of more vs less sensible impact east of 100W in either the operational, or the ensemble mean, when/if they take turn bulging more or less +PNA/+PNAP respectively.

In other words … the sensibility over whether we produce or fail over the next weeks of this thing appears to be mainly of Pacific origin.

Strange to see the NAO of all stochastic pain in the neck indices be so shoulder rubbing stable. 

90% of the focus seems to be on the -Nao but as far as folks having realistic snow dreams and even setting them.. Are you are implying  the success of the block (making weenies happy ) is going to be significantly correlated to the amount of +PNA ridging That comes to fruition 

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

90% of the focus seems to be on the -Nao but as far as folks having realistic snow dreams and even setting them.. Are you are implying  the success of the block (making weenies happy ) is going to be significantly correlated to the amount of PNA ridging ? 

Obv I am not tip.

If NAO is static, determining factors on sensible weather will be highly correlated to the more unstable PNA index, since when you lower degrees of freedom, you can more accurately correlate outcomes to the degrees of freedom that remain (as the entire domain of outcomes is reduced when one degree of freedom is static).

In essence, if NAO is taken care of, then indices that are oscillating such as PNA are better for differentiating sensible weather outcomes

[ORH_wxman]

PNA spike is what you’ll want to look for when trying to get a big dog storm. We typically don’t have big dogs without a PNA ridge spike. It’s possible (like 1/12/11) but not common. 

Events will typically be more of the fast movers and quick redevelopers when it’s -PNA/-NAO

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

While ya’ll reminisce and discuss the future. It Feels like deep brown winter out (38/27). You just wonder how pope’s coping in this wearing a robe and sandals.

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening.

As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.

We dream the same dream. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PNA spike is what you’ll want to look for when trying to get a big dog storm. We typically don’t have big dogs without a PNA ridge spike. It’s possible (like 1/12/11) but not common. 

Events will typically be more of the fast movers and quick redevelopers when it’s -PNA/-NAO

Yea, this is why my big dog window is in January.

[Typhoon Tip]

57 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

90% of the focus seems to be on the -Nao but as far as folks having realistic snow dreams and even setting them.. Are you are implying  the success of the block (making weenies happy ) is going to be significantly correlated to the amount of +PNA ridging That comes to fruition 

The observations would suggest so… Yeah.

Keeping in mind this is relative to predictive measurability and using what ‘s given.  I mean the pattern could collapse into a compressed velocity soaked meat grinder and we could still end up getting something out of it - it’s just not modeled at the time. Those reach around more typically minoring events would also go quite far in saving the spirits in here lol. 

But at this range really we just have to try and sift down to the main nuggets of influence out there in the pattern. It seems the NAO is handling stable and it is the Pacific is the one that’s acting like the unattended firehose flopping around in the model runs

Will said it in a nice concise manner just then - a communication art I typically fail at … But if you just stick to that as a basic canvas requirement everything that I mentioning about the NAO this morning becomes rather academic. It’s just that it matters presently as we try to sniff out events because that fundamental aspect seems to be dictating our success right now in dealing with modeling noise 

I feel pretty confident in the perturbation out there 12.13.14 but it’s really unclear whether it’s gonna get constructive feedback or destructive feedback and I think most of that sensitivity again is centered in what the PNAP is going to do

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening.

As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.

Just not enough buns for this.

[DavisStraight]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a dream that many wouldn't like...but just once in my life, I want an epic, grind-society-to-a-halt blitz to start slowly around midday of xmas eve.....go nuts all xmas eve, maybe a slight let up before dawn just for the sake of being realistic, and then rage on again through xmas morning and not winding down until around sunset xmas evening.

As much as I adore Xmas, I want plans ruined and holiday travel incapacitated.

While you're dreaming why don't you have this storm stall off the coast and snow til New Year's Eve.

[CoastalWx]

I dunno...that would sort of ruin the Holiday. I'm good with several inches falling that day or having people buried alive two days before or after Christmas.

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno...that would sort of ruin the Holiday. I'm good with several inches falling that day or having people buried alive two days before or after Christmas.

2017 was a dream in that regard

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I agree with Ray, burial FTW

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno...that would sort of ruin the Holiday. I'm good with several inches falling that day or having people buried alive two days before or after Christmas.

I would find a way to cope and salvage it with the wife and kids at home, all the while trying to achieve the requisite balance between being pinned to the window/laptop and the necessary daily functions of life enough to avoid estrangement.

[Superstorm93]

New JMA weeklies for the middle of the month

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

2017 was a dream in that regard

It was the closest that I have come to it....that was also the xmas eve that I proposed, but as special as that was, I crave a more dire scenario....I even want Santa's fat ass to struggle navigating.

Xmas 2002 was close, too....began snowing Xmas afternoon, but ultimately the storm was a bit too fast and tucked.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I agree with Ray, burial FTW

Dec 1961 had an epic one on Xmas eve that ended predawn hours Xmas morning. Much of the interior from ORH-eastward had 18-20+, but even the coast did well until you got to the south coast and Cape.

[Hoth]

My dream is a static Xmas day norlun dumping three feet of fluff without a breath of wind. And weenies ten miles on either side of the band crying into their dry Turkey as I do naked cartwheels.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would find a way to cope and salvage it with the wife and kids at home, all the while trying to achieve the requisite balance between being pinned to the window/laptop and the necessary daily functions of life enough to avoid estrangement.

See I can't function like that...12/25/10 was bad enough pissing off the wife.    Would be nice to see family too...but I get your point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

New JMA weeklies for the middle of the month

 

JMA has weeklies? You pay to access that? Its like me paying to access @weatherwiz's drunken accounts of Wolfpack games while 4 40s deep.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dec 1961 had an epic one on Xmas eve that ended predawn hours Xmas morning. Much of the interior from ORH-eastward had 18-20+, but even the coast did well until you got to the south coast and Cape.

That is probably the best in my view...give me that.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just need to avoid this:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel2rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=200&interval=5&year=2020&month=12&day=24&hour=23&minute=55

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Just need to avoid this:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel2rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=200&interval=5&year=2020&month=12&day=24&hour=23&minute=55

I don't expect that.....worst case is probably an ill-timed relaxation.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Just need to avoid this:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel2rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=200&interval=5&year=2020&month=12&day=24&hour=23&minute=55

That radar loop could be titled “tips cosmic dildo- no lube “