December 2022 Obs/Disc

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here are some of the actual plots, by the way. really cool stuff

source: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

Yea, I def. included that stuff in my outlook. Thanks so much for linking that article.

Paul is right, though, about it also being linked to the stratosphere..its easy to forget that there is a lag for blocking to develop for a PV split. We saw this in 2018...the split was in February, while we were roasting....then everything evolve din March.

I am annoyed with myself for overlooking that and not playing up Dec blocking more than I did.

[Henry's Weather]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, a bit further east and a more impressive airmass. 

BTW, those systems that develop with frontal appendages protruding on the poleward side are a rare breed capable of truly exotic snowfall.

is 1997 this type? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Is that Jeffery Dahmer @1:44? 

Ha thats at  1:46-48 and lol . He likes the cold , it will keep his bodies on ice into spring .

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

is 1997 this type? 

No...there are a couple of others....Nov 22-28, 1950, and Dec 29-31, 1962.

Page 186, volume I of KU book.

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well I mean I don't totally think there isn't value looking at a numerical value. But you want to keep in mind that if you're comparing say A December 2021 value that was -3.3SD to other December's that were -3SD the structure of the NAO block could be totally different across each month and the pattern may not be entirely similar too. 

I think what's super interesting is blocking decay/reload patterns. How a block decays and retrogrades or doesn't retrograde. You have a great point about how absolute anomalies are not indicative of dynamic interactions, like the kind of dynamic interaction that Archambault looks at. What would be cool is to look at the coincidence of NAO/AO Westward decay and a PNA spike (positive delta) (there's probably literature out there about that), simply because that's a signal that's being born out in the ensembles for mid-Dec.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I think what's super interesting is blocking decay/reload patterns. How a block decays and retrogrades or doesn't retrograde. You have a great point about how absolute anomalies are not indicative of dynamic interactions, like the kind of dynamic interaction that Archambault looks at. What would be cool is to look at the coincidence of NAO/AO Westward decay and a PNA spike (positive delta) (there's probably literature out there about that), simply because that's a signal that's being born out in the ensembles for mid-Dec.

I agree...I wish there was too and I would think there is something or if not, someone is doing something. I know the KU books really get into assessing how these indices evolve leading up to the storm and I think even post-storm. That's really the key...it's the evolution of these things leading up to the storm. That's why I'm not a huge fan of looking at these indicies on a static level or a monthly averaged value. What the NAO does in a 3-7 day span is more important then it's averaged-state over a month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

is 1997 this type? 

1997 was more like Dec 1992 and March 2013....just deep layer easterly fetch off of the Atlantic advecting copious moisture.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I agree...I wish there was too and I would think there is something or if not, someone is doing something. I know the KU books really get into assessing how these indices evolve leading up to the storm and I think even post-storm. That's really the key...it's the evolution of these things leading up to the storm. That's why I'm not a huge fan of looking at these indicies on a static level or a monthly averaged value. What the NAO does in a 3-7 day span is more important then it's averaged-state over a month.

Absolutely been saying that for years. Dailies matter more. Analog for this is 2010

[ORH_wxman]

The following Decembers had at least one day where the AO reached -4 SD (dataset goes to 1950)

2009
1976
2010
2000
1968
1963
1950
1995
1978
1962
1966

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I def. included that stuff in my outlook. Thanks so much for linking that article.

Paul is right, though, about it also being linked to the stratosphere..its easy to forget that there is a lag for blocking to develop for a PV split. We saw this in 2018...the split was in February, while we were roasting....then everything evolve din March.

I am annoyed with myself for overlooking that and not playing up Dec blocking more than I did.

Just enjoy the evolution. Patience Grasshoppers. We saw March 18  coming just like Dec 22

[klw]

Woke up to a fresh dusting at the house this morning.  It was also snowing nicely in Stowe as I drove through around 8am

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Absolutely been saying that for years. Dailies matter more. Analog for this is 2010

I've said this so many times but I wish I was smart enough to take the daily data that is provided and create weekly and bi-weekly averages and running means. The easiest thing would be to just take the sum of daily's for 7-day and 14-day periods and divide but that won't work. For example, if you take the daily values for a month and divide by the # of days in that month, you don't get the value what would be listed for the monthyl value. 

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, klw said:

Woke up to a fresh dusting at the house this morning.  It was also snowing nicely in Stowe as I drove through around 8am

Ray will be happy to hear that

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree...I wish there was too and I would think there is something or if not, someone is doing something. I know the KU books really get into assessing how these indices evolve leading up to the storm and I think even post-storm. That's really the key...it's the evolution of these things leading up to the storm. That's why I'm not a huge fan of looking at these indicies on a static level or a monthly averaged value. What the NAO does in a 3-7 day span is more important then it's averaged-state over a month.

Well, sure....but when you are doing an overview of a season, you have to analyze at a monthly level. You can analyze dailies in hindsight, but you can't forecast the daily variation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Ray will be happy to hear that

That doesn't frustrate me....obviously they will get snow earlier, later and more of it. I just hate when I get porked, and the thread turns into an upslope orgy.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, sure....but when you are doing an overview of a season, you have to analyze at a monthly level. You can analyze dailies in hindsight, but you can't forecast the daily variation.

I don't disagree with that but I'm talking more about research aspect as opposed to a overview/review. what I'm referring too I think can enhance accuracy potential in an overview but obviously you wouldn't get into those details during an overview. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just enjoy the evolution. Patience Grasshoppers. We saw March 18  coming just like Dec 22

Only thing is that this wasn't a technical SSW, and that was. This is why I didn't hit that PV split harder with respect to ramifications in December.

We agreed on bocking...it was just tough to pin down timing between December and January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't disagree with that but I'm talking more about research aspect as opposed to a overview/review. what I'm referring too I think can enhance accuracy potential in an overview but obviously you wouldn't get into those details during an overview. 

Gotcha. Yea, those daily nuances tell the tale.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The following Decembers had at least one day where the AO reached -4 SD (dataset goes to 1950)

2009
1976
2010
2000
1968
1963
1950
1995
1978
1962
1966

Quite the list. Rolling forward on those dates leads to a very interesting period coming up here. Beginning to believe we white Christmas this year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The following Decembers had at least one day where the AO reached -4 SD (dataset goes to 1950)

2009
1976
2010
2000
1968
1963
1950
1995
1978
1962
1966

Obviously 2000, 2010 and 1995 have the most relavence.

But, yea....we can live with this composite.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotcha. Yea, those daily nuances tell the tale.

I'm kinda pumped/pissed at the same time. that thread I started late summer was actually driven by the potential for this type of scenario to occur (big blocking) and while the initial focus on the thread was ENSO one of my ultimate goals was to get into hemispheric evolutions during the fall prior to big block periods. But what I'm pissed at is things got hectic the past few months and all my work has stalled  

I haven't been following in-depth month discussion about the winter (from some of the threads here and bigger gurus on Twitter) but was there a strong signal or discussion for this to occur as far back as a month or two ago?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Quite the list. Rolling forward on those dates leads to a very interesting period coming up here. Beginning to believe we white Christmas this year. 

I had doubts about the coast from SNE down into the mid atl, but its looking better.

Its always looked good for the interior IMO.

[Henry's Weather]

I'm feeling the spirit, so I'm going to make a proclamation (especially since the pope seems to be absent, gotta step up):

I am about 80% confident that there will be significant EC cyclogenesis during the period from Dec 16 to Dec 21. Prior to that, I think there will be a lower impact storm, probably an inland/NNE event (btween Dec 12-14) which forms a 50-50 low that will entrain future cyclogenesis to the east coast, as well as **brings the baroclinic zone farther south**.

I'm not a professional nor a seasoned forecaster, so I only stand to gain reputation or to retain my rank as a member of the "Weenie" class. 

Dec 12th/13th storm:

- coincident with PNA positive delta Dec 10-12

- Coincident with NAO retrograte from Greenland to Davis Strait

- poor antecendent airmass/lack of well-positioned baroclinic zone leads to angst for EMATT weenies

In between:

- renewal of cold

- establishment of favorable baroclinic zone

- establishment of favorable confluence

For December 16-21 storm:

This will be the storm that occurs as Pac ridging that starts near the 10th peaks and begins to disintegrate. Things could go wrong, disclaimers, allegedly-speak, yada yada. I think that this is a period with high potential. If I were to guess storm evolution, I would predict something southern-stream, sort of like a Dec 2009 deal. The coincidence of ridge peaking and decaying with NAO decaying and retrograding is very promising.

 

I accept any weenie tags thrown my way, and it will be fun to verify my prophecy. If the pope is gone, i sorta feel like a deranged and less coherent Martin Luther, yet instead of nailing my theses to the door of a church, I am scrawling in red crayon my manic and redbull-fueled ramblings all over the walls of the hallowed halls housing the northeastern American weather intelligentsia.

Fun fact: Martin Luther was constipated for most of his life. This is another differentiator: my access to diuretics, as hinted at above, sets me apart from Martin Luther in this specific dimension

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously 2000, 2010 and 1995 have the most relavence.

But, yea....we can live with this composite.

This argues that we also seem some late season blocking, which my analog composite implied.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I'm feeling the spirit, so I'm going to make a proclamation (especially since the pope seems to be absent, gotta step up):

I am about 80% confident that there will be significant EC cyclogenesis during the period from Dec 16 to Dec 21. Prior to that, I think there will be a lower impact storm, probably an inland/NNE event (btween Dec 12-14) which forms a 50-50 low that will entrain future cyclogenesis to the east coast, as well as **brings the baroclinic zone farther south**.

I'm not a professional nor a seasoned forecaster, so I only stand to gain reputation or to retain my rank as a member of the "Weenie" class. 

Dec 12th/13th storm:

- coincident with PNA positive delta Dec 10-12

- Coincident with NAO retrograte from Greenland to Davis Strait

- poor antecendent airmass/lack of well-positioned baroclinic zone leads to angst for EMATT weenies

In between:

- renewal of cold

- establishment of favorable baroclinic zone

- establishment of favorable confluence

For December 16-21 storm:

This will be the storm that occurs as Pac ridging that starts near the 10th peaks and begins to disintegrate. Things could go wrong, disclaimers, allegedly-speak, yada yada. I think that this is a period with high potential. If I were to guess storm evolution, I would predict something southern-stream, sort of like a Dec 2009 deal. The coincidence of ridge peaking and decaying with NAO decaying and retrograding is very promising.

 

I accept any weenie tags thrown my way, and it will be fun to verify my prophecy. If the pope is gone, i sorta feel like a deranged and less coherent Martin Luther, yet instead of nailing my theses to the door of a church, I am scrawling in red crayon my manic and redbull-fueled ramblings all over the walls of the hallowed halls housing the northeastern American weather intelligentsia.

Fun fact: Martin Luther was constipated for most of his life. This is another differentiator: my access to diuretics, as hinted at above, sets me apart from Martin Luther in this specific dimension

 

Lol funny shit but pretty solid reasoning to your forecast

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wasn't very confident that my blocky March composite was correct, which I communicated in the write up, but after looking at that Dec -AO list...I am convinced that I am on the right track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't very confident that my blocky March composite was correct, which I communicated in the write up, but after looking at that Dec -AO list...I am convinced that I am on the right track.

Only March 1979 and March 2011 from that list (2/9) registered a positive NAO.

Check this out:

 

 

 

 

Have some poleward Aleutian ridging lol

[weatherwiz]

I know when the PV is very strong and it can increasingly hard to disrupt and tear apart and that's why some winters when we're dealing with strong PV's early on it can take literally an entire winter to weaken, but does the same hold true when you establish strong blocks early on? that it's very difficult to break down the block through the season?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I'm feeling the spirit, so I'm going to make a proclamation (especially since the pope seems to be absent, gotta step up):

I am about 80% confident that there will be significant EC cyclogenesis during the period from Dec 16 to Dec 21. Prior to that, I think there will be a lower impact storm, probably an inland/NNE event (btween Dec 12-14) which forms a 50-50 low that will entrain future cyclogenesis to the east coast, as well as **brings the baroclinic zone farther south**.

I'm not a professional nor a seasoned forecaster, so I only stand to gain reputation or to retain my rank as a member of the "Weenie" class. 

Dec 12th/13th storm:

- coincident with PNA positive delta Dec 10-12

- Coincident with NAO retrograte from Greenland to Davis Strait

- poor antecendent airmass/lack of well-positioned baroclinic zone leads to angst for EMATT weenies

In between:

- renewal of cold

- establishment of favorable baroclinic zone

- establishment of favorable confluence

For December 16-21 storm:

This will be the storm that occurs as Pac ridging that starts near the 10th peaks and begins to disintegrate. Things could go wrong, disclaimers, allegedly-speak, yada yada. I think that this is a period with high potential. If I were to guess storm evolution, I would predict something southern-stream, sort of like a Dec 2009 deal. The coincidence of ridge peaking and decaying with NAO decaying and retrograding is very promising.

 

I accept any weenie tags thrown my way, and it will be fun to verify my prophecy. If the pope is gone, i sorta feel like a deranged and less coherent Martin Luther, yet instead of nailing my theses to the door of a church, I am scrawling in red crayon my manic and redbull-fueled ramblings all over the walls of the hallowed halls housing the northeastern American weather intelligentsia.

Fun fact: Martin Luther was constipated for most of his life. This is another differentiator: my access to diuretics, as hinted at above, sets me apart from Martin Luther in this specific dimension

 

This pretty much how I described the evolution of December last month...slow start for the coast, but gets going.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This pretty much how I described the evolution of December last month...slow start for the coast, but gets going.

I read a lot of your shit so probably has some influence on my process/pattern recog.