December 2022 Obs/Disc

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Bingo. Give this man a milf.

Getting into position out on runway 29. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Getting into position out on runway 29. 

I watched that this week...classic. That scene always makes me think of scooter now lol

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

One for the ages.

I’m pretty sure 1888 wound up in a frontal structure similar to that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m pretty sure 1888 wound up in a frontal structure similar to that. 

Yea, a bit further east and a more impressive airmass. 

BTW, those systems that develop with frontal appendages protruding on the poleward side are a rare breed capable of truly exotic snowfall.

[Ginx snewx]

Man as bad as the 80s were there were some big storms including this one. Happy to see Dec 81 as a top analog. What a winter ending with a pop.

 

[SnoSki14]

Typical model waffling. They'll trend more favorably by tomorrow 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bingo. Give this man a milf.

Can you speak with Santa 

[weatherwiz]

This is a beautiful evolution to watch really. Its like watching the Bruins but at H5

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh … punching the clock as we labor through model runs that vacillate between constructive vs destructive interference.

Yesterday constructed  

Overnight more than less destructed  

If it need be said, 7.8.9 is still beyond D 6 (fairly…), implying as it should that it may trend back colder - NNE is part of this sub forum … etc. While 13.14.15 is still yet beyond the ‘operational event horizon’.  

Of the two intervals 13.14.15, despite being beyond predictive usefulness…, has the better conceptualized chances, however … con I’m still toying with: the question of an overly compressed flow over mid latitude dominating the NAO continent is still unanswered.

We conjecture that there’s likely to be at least some of that … agreed. But there’s virtually 0 assessment possible from this range whether that becomes too inhibitory during.  The models are good … probably best at telling us which impulses could be interesting, if they are allowed to do so.  But are particularly lousy in the “if” area beyond that ‘predictive event horizon’ above.  I’ve been discussing for years that the NAO presumption is a bit off a false read … probably left over from the early popularization while not fully knowing the true nature of the index’ implication spectrum if the 1990s.  It’s the D(index) with a steady diet of non interference Pac wave entry from the west that   enthusiasts want …

Just keeping my own expectations in check for now.  

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ensembles went the wrong way slightly, hopefully not a trend. 

i know. shittiest pattern i've seen in quite some time

[Henry's Weather]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is a beautiful evolution to watch really. Its like watching the Bruins but at H5

Delicious. Can't draw it up better. No seasoning needed mm mm MM. 

[weatherwiz]

IMO, what makes this potential even more exciting, at least in terms of it being totally legit and not just some long-range fantasy is there is tremendous stratospheric support for such a blocking scenario to arise. There are signals we could see a decent SSW too later in the month. Now SSW's don't always have a correlation to cold/storminess here...there is another side of the hemisphere of course but how everything seems to align really puts us  in a great spot...but of course being in a great spot doesn't guarantee winning. The Seahawks were in a great spot against the Pats in the Super Bowl...the Falcons were sitting pretty and we know what happened there 

[Henry's Weather]

Someone should do some sort of data parsing to find periods that are -3 SD AO in December

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO, what makes this potential even more exciting, at least in terms of it being totally legit and not just some long-range fantasy is there is tremendous stratospheric support for such a blocking scenario to arise. There are signals we could see a decent SSW too later in the month. Now SSW's don't always have a correlation to cold/storminess here...there is another side of the hemisphere of course but how everything seems to align really puts us  in a great spot...but of course being in a great spot doesn't guarantee winning. The Seahawks were in a great spot against the Pats in the Super Bowl...the Falcons were sitting pretty and we know what happened there 

While there remains some residual stratospheric warmth from last month's split of the PV, which makes sense as a balancing force given the cool southern stratosphere, this first round of blocking is more triggered by the tropics IMO. However, there is a favorable background state for further disruptions of the PV.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

yep

Not buying it. That block is North and the flow is lined up. Maybe suppressed from far NNE but doubt it's a MA pattern.

[Henry's Weather]

One limiting factor seems to be an absence of cross polar flow. I know others have pointed this out, but worth repeating. Not gonna be highs in the low 20s on the coastal plain

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Someone should do some sort of data parsing to find periods that are -3 SD AO in December

1976, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2010 were all at least -2SD in December.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While there remains some residual stratospheric warmth from last month's split of the PV, which makes sense as a balancing force given the cool southern stratosphere, this first round of blocking is more triggered by the tropics IMO. However, there is a favorable background state for further disruptions of the PV.

yeah, it's been shown that episodes of SH strat cooling correlate to a -NAO and a weaker NH SPV. I think a reload in early Jan is certainly in the cards given that

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Someone should do some sort of data parsing to find periods that are -3 SD AO in December

Structure and placement of the core anomalies are more important then the anomaly itself.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While there remains some residual stratospheric warmth from last month's split of the PV, which makes sense as a balancing force given the cool southern stratosphere, this first round of blocking is more triggered by the tropics IMO. However, there is a favorable background state for further disruptions of the PV.

Agreed. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, it's been shown that episodes of SH strat cooling correlate to a -NAO and a weaker NH SPV. I think a reload in early Jan is certainly in the cards given that

Complete same page.

This episode of blocking is not a one-off.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

One limiting factor seems to be an absence of cross polar flow. I know others have pointed this out, but worth repeating. Not gonna be highs in the low 20s on the coastal plain

Some modified cP air, not fresh artic stuff. It'll do, but not the prime stuff

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1976, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2010 were all at least -2SD in December.

None of these winters sucked, albeit frustrating for some areas for various reasons.

I do expect a big mild stretch like 2005-2006, later in the season.

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Structure and placement of the core anomalies are more important then the anomaly itself.

Agreed. 

Gotcha. I wonder if there is a more useful numerical heuristic out there, just to start to get a decent analogue set to pick the best fits from. 

[Ginx snewx]

Patience Grasshoppers. We might even be set up for Christmas week.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

None of these winters sucked, albeit frustrating for some areas for various reasons.

I do expect a big mild stretch like 2005-2006, later in the season.

AO of -4 is predicted.  That's a lock for snow here. Amounts TBD but almost a guarantee 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know. shittiest pattern i've seen in quite some time

It doesn’t really get any better then that right there for a pattern…let’s take our swings. 
 

Greenmountaincoffee and the Pope are Vatican compadres.

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Complete same page.

This episode of blocking is not a one-off.

here are some of the actual plots, by the way. really cool stuff

source: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The reason why many have said to not anticipate feet out of coming pattern is because at this lead time and being early to mid December climo there are gonna be plenty of caution flags even inherent in a very good look. There is Also a reason we don’t average 120-150 “ So we just should Stay hopeful but realize systems could miss us or play out poorly even during the good period and some likely will . 
 

I just want to maintain an Active look to the upcoming period . That is key 

Great post Pickles. Agreed. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Gotcha. I wonder if there is a more useful numerical heuristic out there, just to start to get a decent analogue set to pick the best fits from. 

Well I mean I don't totally think there isn't value looking at a numerical value. But you want to keep in mind that if you're comparing say A December 2021 value that was -3.3SD to other December's that were -3SD the structure of the NAO block could be totally different across each month and the pattern may not be entirely similar too. 

[Cold Miser]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man as bad as the 80s were there were some big storms including this one. Happy to see Dec 81 as a top analog. What a winter ending with a pop.

 

Is that Jeffery Dahmer @1:44?