WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Heck, we could have one of those rather rare quadruple phasers… Lmao…”The Dawn Awakening” part 2….”George’s Arctic Apocalypse.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That 12/12 - 12/14 window still looks pretty good to me. Maybe it gets pushed back a bit but overall I think that's the best shot. Yeah and I wonder if we get multiple shots at this....that first window is still kind of early in the pattern. Historically, the better shot would be when the block is kind of decaying which would be more like beyond 12/15. But we've seen multiple storms before in a big NAO block regime. Feb 2021 is one example....March 2018 is another. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Exciting to see and will be following allow. Appreciate the information y'all share. I'll be back "home" for the holidays in CT, so it'll be interesting to see how the second half of December into January is looking as we progress. Very much hoping for a shot or two... haven't seen snow since being in Yosemite in early 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Damn that’s a sweet look. Glad things are finally lining up for a solid December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and I wonder if we get multiple shots at this....that first window is still kind of early in the pattern. Historically, the better shot would be when the block is kind of decaying which would be more like beyond 12/15. But we've seen multiple storms before in a big NAO block regime. Feb 2021 is one example....March 2018 is another. Wait, so the block is decaying post 12/15 after being in place for less than a week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec '81 is actually not a terrible analog either for this pattern. I think late Dec '10- early Jan '11 is a better one, but Dec '81 had that block dominating the pattern for weeks. Parts of Dec 1995 are a good match too. You know I don't mind Dec 1981. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 George always has to take it just a little further than necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wait, so the block is decaying post 12/15 after being in place for less than a week? Yeah, this won't last forever. Usually they still a little longer than modeled though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, this won't last forever. Usually they still a little longer than modeled though. Hopefully the whole winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wait, so the block is decaying post 12/15 after being in place for less than a week? Just in time for the grinch storm to wipe out our pack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 ...Somewhere, James is smiling...! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wait, so the block is decaying post 12/15 after being in place for less than a week? By definition a block is decaying as soon s it reaches peak strength. But the decay stage can last a long time...even weeks sometimes. Sometimes you get little reloads too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 There's a lot of details to work out folks. Things look good in the 8-15 day window or so...but this is one piece in the massive snow puzzle. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 46 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wait, so the block is decaying post 12/15 after being in place for less than a week? Varies. March 2018 and December 2010 each lasted 6 plus weeks. March was a SSWE (not sure reason for 2010). Since this was not caused by a SSWE might not last as long? The METS on this forum would know best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, this won't last forever. Usually they still a little longer than modeled though. 17 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Just in time for the grinch storm to wipe out our pack 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: By definition a block is decaying as soon s it reaches peak strength. But the decay stage can last a long time...even weeks sometimes. Sometimes you get little reloads too. Interesting, I hope this doesn’t turn out to be a 10 day window before we pack it in for the grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Ideally what you hope is that as the blocking fades, the Pacific helps take over. Also like Will said, you may see these pulses or brief spikes in ridging again in the same area. I think in our case, we may see it fade, but it could take awhile for something with that magnitude to break down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Varies. March 2018 and December 2010 each lasted 6 plus weeks. March was a SSWE (not sure reason for 2010). Since this was not caused by a SSWE might not last as long? The METS on this forum would know best. NAO blocks can reload too after a period of decay. That definitely happened in 2010-2011…even after the monster block (with a couple reloads) finally broke down after the 1/12/11 storms, we got some mini-reloads…a more east-based block formed ahead of the 1/27/11 system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Dec '81 is actually not a terrible analog either for this pattern. I think late Dec '10- early Jan '11 is a better one, but Dec '81 had that block dominating the pattern for weeks. Parts of Dec 1995 are a good match too. The 81-82 winter was much better for central and NNE. I remember being in central NH in mid Jan. and there was a ton of snow. We had a lot of mixing issues down here, but seemed to get much better just north of 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Of course we had a huge snowstorm in early December that was all snow even here. I remember Burbank saying it would stay all snow even to the coast because the wind stayed northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 18z GFS same type of setup as the 12z euro in Day 10-12 fantasy land. It then does a March 4-6 2001 pin wheel phase for shits and giggles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Gfs gets down to 940mb but way ots and in the long range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 That big block is gonna cause some crazy solutions I think…hopefully whatever transpires, we can take advantage of here in SNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Where's Brian ? - we need to petition him to institute a limitation on the use of the word Blizzard - I don't care how fascist it is to limit free speech, at some point we gotta throw hands 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 22 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z GFS same type of setup as the 12z euro in Day 10-12 fantasy land. It then does a March 4-6 2001 pin wheel phase for shits and giggles . Noticed that ... The key is the aft regiom of the ORD S/W...If that pops taller into Canada ... it will trigger that western SPV to curl and subsume - that's a 1978 redux look there, but is hardly claiming analog - just the 'behavior' in principle... This GFS solution doesn't get it done ..but it's damn close! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 GFSGW. Is that some kind of hybrid Fiona redux? Sign me up…lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 hours ago, George001 said: The setup for mid month is loaded, historically strong North Atlantic blocking, a western ridge centered over Montana (ideal for east coast cyclogenesis), and excess water vapor available for storms to tap due to the volcanic activity last year and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean. What was really interesting was the end of the Euro run, it looked like it was about to phase a piece of the vortex over southern Canada into the storm (the northern and southern branches are already starting to phase over the Midwest). This run it likely would have been a bit late with the 3rd piece, but if that dives in a little earlier the ceiling drastically increases. Either way we’re getting a Miller B nor’easter/blizzard in my opinion, but the question is are we getting a double phaser or triple phaser. Triple phasers are very rare, so the odds are low, but due to the magnitude of the blocking the odds are higher than they usually are. The farther NE you are, the better the chance is of that 3rd piece phasing in. Even without it, due to the magnitude of the block the low will be in no hurry to leave, and with all the water vapor in the atmosphere combined with the arctic Canadian air clashing with the mild Atlantic Ocean we could easily see 3+ inches of QPF with a double phaser. If we get a triple phaser, all bets are off and we could be talking 5+ inches of QPF. settle down Beavis 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 48.6F moderate rain. South winds gusting to 43mph. Many gusts into the upper 30s. About .85" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That big block is gonna cause some crazy solutions I think…hopefully whatever transpires, we can take advantage of here in SNE. Yea. We sit back and watch it unfold while we beat the pope with a ruler. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Arrows.. and rumors of arrows (Ray’s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: settle down Beavis You rang? George's post got 16 hot dogs - could be a new record! All in good fun. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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