December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Snowcrazed71]

Did someone mention 1960? We had a Snowstorm that hit the mid Atlantic through New England on December 12th. 

High Total recorded was Newark New Jersey at 21 in, but it was commonplace to see anywhere between 12"-17" from Philly right up through Maine.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Same with severe threats being talked about a week out I guess....

Posing hodos and STP to hype a setup is just as stupid too. 

[NorEastermass128]

EURO upper levels look chaotic. Hopefully the chaos works in our favor. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did someone mention 1960? We had a Snowstorm that hit the mid Atlantic through New England on December 12th. 

High Total recorded was Newark New Jersey at 21 in, but it was commonplace to see anywhere between 12"-17" from Philly right up through Maine.

Dec 1960 was one of the all time early season KU doozies, but it wasn’t the same pattern as we have coming up. Didn’t have an NAO block. It did have a temporary 50/50 low though which is what the NAO blocks usually help out with (keeping the 50/50 low in place)…and huge western ridge that went all the way up the Arctic Ocean. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and these dates could move all over the place given that the models won't "see" some of these shortwaves....either that or they manifest/eject from their original location in a different manner than the models thought at further lead time. I mean, just as en example, the OP Euro in clown range at D10 is ready to try and pop an OH valley---> NJ coastal type model.....which is prob one of the few types of coastals that could be supported in the still-high gradient pattern there which I don't have to tell you (582dm heights hanging out over N FL fighting the slowly retreating PV lobe to our north)

 

 

 

 

Yeah I am not inclined to think a New Jersey model bomb/Miller B is type favored given the totality of all guidance sources but native to that one particular model solution? -actually in the process of slowing or decelerating everywhere really quickly in a day or two leading to that … it’s probably just model hallucination but if you wanted to get a big dog done that’s how you do it

by the way… The GFS trended pretty heavy for that 7.8.9 heh hadn’t looked.  That’s probably already almost thread worthy considering a large consortium of our subform lives in Central -northern New England  I’m also a little biased in favor of that event because it’s something I saw like six days ago frankly I think I mentioned it back then so so much for self promotion ha ha

Overall I’d say this GFS run is the most representative of the pattern forcing and having a polar jet punch further south across astern North America over prior runs. It’s interesting to see the operational runs finally conceding to the weight of their ensemble means assumption we might’ve almost been able to make considering every single family were saying the same thing

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You start wondering how high we can go  for the second half of Dec. The floor keeps rising each day while the ceiling is opening up. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Who was saying OP runs were pointless and now they are celebrating . I mean this was less than 2 days ago . I mean ...cmon lol

[NorEastermass128]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You start wondering how high we can go  for the second half of Dec. The floor keeps rising each day while the ceiling is opening up. 

Start low, adjust higher. So, start with 2-4 feet region wide and move up as needed. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Wow the eps is unreal! We take! 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wow the eps is unreal! We take! 

Very cold and active 

[OceanStWx]

The good news is...

[tamarack]

46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would hit Dec 81 over and over. 27 inches of snow and - 2.8.

So would I, though temps were AN in the north.  I recorded 46" in 12/81 with temp +7.6. (Aroostook benefit, big snow, big AN temps, nice combo.)  Farmington co-op had 33" and temp +1.8.

[beavis1729]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dec '81 is actually not a terrible analog either for this pattern. I think late Dec '10- early Jan '11 is a better one, but Dec '81 had that block dominating the pattern for weeks.

Parts of Dec 1995 are a good match too.

And then some insane cold in January 1982.

[tamarack]

39 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did someone mention 1960? We had a Snowstorm that hit the mid Atlantic through New England on December 12th. 

High Total recorded was Newark New Jersey at 21 in, but it was commonplace to see anywhere between 12"-17" from Philly right up through Maine.

Northern fringe for Maine, 4" in Farmington.  We had 18" at our NNJ home and 12/13 was the firearms deer season opener.  Dad dropped a nice buck 250 yards from our house, then talked me thru field-dressing it, useful as I was alone when my first deer fell several years later.  That storm came with temps in the low teens, quite cold for NJ snow.  On 12/12 the NFL Giants were playing Wash in DC, with SN+ thru the 1st half and 8-10" pow OG for the 2nd.  Actually saw (on TV, of course) the players digging thru the snow for a fumble.  

And then some insane cold in January 1982.

Averaged -1.5 for the month in Fort Kent.  Farmington co-op had 3.4°, their coldest month in 130 winters there.  Jan 17-18 was the bottom for N. Maine:  At 9 PM on 1/17 it was -29 with gusts 40+ and next morning -34 with gusts 35+ (and 2 mi visibility in SN-!).  Those conditions hit -100 on the old WCI, -70s on the new.  IT did make it up to -14 that afternoon.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think many within the weather circle exhibit enough athletic prowess for that.

are you calling me fat? i feel like you are calling me fat. for the record, I will have you know that i am, in fact, F.A.T.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wow the eps is unreal! We take! 

That look around Dec 12-13 is starting to get really good....not just general pattern-wise...but that's very threatening for a big system when you get the Rockies ridge popping coinciding with the Atlantic look there

 

[weathafella]

47 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did someone mention 1960? We had a Snowstorm that hit the mid Atlantic through New England on December 12th. 

High Total recorded was Newark New Jersey at 21 in, but it was commonplace to see anywhere between 12"-17" from Philly right up through Maine.

One of my favorite storms as a 14 year old!   Heavy snow and 10 degrees.  Kicked off an amazing winter.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That look around Dec 12-13 is starting to get really good....not just general pattern-wise...but that's very threatening for a big system when you get the Rockies ridge popping coinciding with the Atlantic look there

 

Ya and this for a 5 day mean! 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya and this for a 5 day mean! 

[CT Rain]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya and this for a 5 day mean! 

That 12/12 - 12/14 window still looks pretty good to me. Maybe it gets pushed back a bit but overall I think that's the best shot. 

[SnoSki14]

The EPS is straight outta JBs basement. I think we have to start talking about multiple big storms in this pattern 

[Go Kart Mozart]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That look around Dec 12-13 is starting to get really good....not just general pattern-wise...but that's very threatening for a big system when you get the Rockies ridge popping coinciding with the Atlantic look there

 

I actually wonder if the NAO block can eventually retro all the way into western Canada, become a massive -EPO, and unlock the truly insane cold now over Siberia.

[weathafella]

Hopefully after 12/12.  We're returning from ORD around 11pm on that date.

[George001]

The setup for mid month is loaded, historically strong North Atlantic blocking, a western ridge centered over Montana (ideal for east coast cyclogenesis), and excess water vapor available for storms to tap due to the volcanic activity last year and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean. What was really interesting was the end of the Euro run, it looked like it was about to phase a piece of the vortex over southern Canada into the storm (the northern and southern branches are already starting to phase over the Midwest). This run it likely would have been a bit late with the 3rd piece, but if that dives in a little earlier the ceiling drastically increases. Either way we’re getting a Miller B nor’easter/blizzard in my opinion, but the question is are we getting a double phaser or triple phaser. Triple phasers are very rare, so the odds are low, but due to the magnitude of the blocking the odds are higher than they usually are. The farther NE you are, the better the chance is of that 3rd piece phasing in. Even without it, due to the magnitude of the block the low will be in no hurry to leave, and with all the water vapor in the atmosphere combined with the arctic Canadian air clashing with the mild Atlantic Ocean we could easily see 3+ inches of QPF with a double phaser. If we get a triple phaser, all bets are off and we could be talking 5+ inches of QPF. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

The setup for mid month is loaded, historically strong North Atlantic blocking, a western ridge centered over Montana (ideal for east coast cyclogenesis), and excess water vapor available for storms to tap due to the volcanic activity last year and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean. What was really interesting was the end of the Euro run, it looked like it was about to phase a piece of the vortex over southern Canada into the storm (the northern and southern branches are already starting to phase over the Midwest). This run it likely would have been a bit late with the 3rd piece, but if that dives in a little earlier the ceiling drastically increases. Either way we’re getting a Miller B nor’easter/blizzard in my opinion, but the question is are we getting a double phaser or triple phaser. Triple phasers are very rare, so the odds are low, but due to the magnitude of the blocking the odds are higher than they usually are. The farther NE you are, the better the chance is of that 3rd piece phasing in. Even without it, due to the magnitude of the block the low will be in no hurry to leave, and with all the water vapor in the atmosphere combined with the arctic Canadian air clashing with the mild Atlantic Ocean we could easily see 3+ inches of QPF with a double phaser. If we get a triple phaser, all bets are off and we could be talking 5+ inches of QPF. 

Holy smokes…pump the brakes George.  Don’t get ahead of yourself…could easily come up empty too…so just chill and be patient. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Heck, we could have one of those rather rare quadruple phasers…

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Holy smokes…pump the brakes George.  Don’t get ahead of yourself…could easily come up empty too…so just chill and be patient. 

Now I'm curious was there any similar pattern that is currently depicted that didn't produce at least one significant snow event in the northeast. 

Let's say in the last 30 years

[George001]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Holy smokes…pump the brakes George.  Don’t get ahead of yourself…could easily come up empty too…so just chill and be patient. 

I guess it’s possible to come up empty but I would think to come up empty in a pattern like this would require a great deal of bad luck. Even with average luck I would think we get at least 1 big one. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

The setup for mid month is loaded, historically strong North Atlantic blocking, a western ridge centered over Montana (ideal for east coast cyclogenesis), and excess water vapor available for storms to tap due to the volcanic activity last year and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean. What was really interesting was the end of the Euro run, it looked like it was about to phase a piece of the vortex over southern Canada into the storm (the northern and southern branches are already starting to phase over the Midwest). This run it likely would have been a bit late with the 3rd piece, but if that dives in a little earlier the ceiling drastically increases. Either way we’re getting a Miller B nor’easter/blizzard in my opinion, but the question is are we getting a double phaser or triple phaser. Triple phasers are very rare, so the odds are low, but due to the magnitude of the blocking the odds are higher than they usually are. The farther NE you are, the better the chance is of that 3rd piece phasing in. Even without it, due to the magnitude of the block the low will be in no hurry to leave, and with all the water vapor in the atmosphere combined with the arctic Canadian air clashing with the mild Atlantic Ocean we could easily see 3+ inches of QPF with a double phaser. If we get a triple phaser, all bets are off and we could be talking 5+ inches of QPF. 

For now you're getting a triple bunner.............

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That 12/12 - 12/14 window still looks pretty good to me. Maybe it gets pushed back a bit but overall I think that's the best shot. 

Agreed