December 2022 Obs/Disc

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol....look at what people are doing to themselves...

You can see why some people jump off the tobin when the OP models don't show snowstorms....all you have to do is look at the inverse reactions when there's a huge storm at 300 hours.

[Lava Rock]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Lavarock just saw this run

 

 

12-15" ain't bad.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At some point it needs to stop, but it just doesn't.

I refuse to believe it’s going to keep happening. I’d be shocked if you didn’t get significantly more snow than me this winter.

 

I just find it hilarious that the first snowy OP run of the year is basically a carbon copy of the last 5

[Great Snow 1717]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just curious, do you have any money invested with FXT Coin????

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gotta get out of Metheun if big snow is desired 

These days, apparently.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see why some people jump off the tobin when the OP models don't show snowstorms....all you have to do is look at the inverse reactions when there's a huge storm at 300 hours.

I just thought it was comical seeing the first big run of the year show that within the context of the last several years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I refuse to believe it’s going to keep happening. I’d be shocked if you didn’t get significantly more snow than me this winter.

 

I just find it hilarious that the first snowy OP run of the year is basically a carbon copy of the last 5

Exactly, otherwise I wouldn't have mentioned it.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These days, apparently.

I’m not too sure but hasn’t that happened in other years/ periods in that general area of NE Mass over time?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just thought it was comical seeing the first big run of the year show that within the context of the last several years.

I wasn't talking about you btw....your view of whether this upcoming pattern is favorable or not is not tied to D10-15 OP GFS runs.

The satire of the SE NH/S ME/Essex county MA screwzone was a different topic....

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not too sure but hasn’t that happened in other years/ periods in that general area of NE Mass over time?

Its generally a pretty good area....like Wilmington with slightly better retention.

Its not a great spot for coastal jackpots, but it generally does well overall.

[mahk_webstah]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PD II and 12/5/2003 come to mind....

let the north trend begin...

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, you had me look. In clown fashion it's producing snow where it shouldn't be. Move that north. 

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

let the north trend begin...

 

[SJonesWX]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see why some people jump off the tobin when the OP models don't show snowstorms....all you have to do is look at the inverse reactions when there's a huge storm at 300 hours.

so they jump back up on to the bridge?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

so they jump back up on to the bridge?

I don't think many within the weather circle exhibit enough athletic prowess for that.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is still mostly rain for Dec 6 system....but there is a bit of ice/snow for NNE this run. That's pretty close though to being something more wintry for a lot of the region....would need another 100-200 miles press on that PV lobe in hudson bay which is certainly doable at D5-6.

However, the follow up wave is more intriguing to me....would still be a fast mover, as the gradient hasn't relaxed yet, but that one looks like it could produce something wintry if gradient doesn't grind it up. That would be in the Dec 8-9 range.

[Ginx snewx]

From Commodity WX. Close dates here.

2010 9.4"

2009 18"

1981 19"

2018  T

2000  9"

1966  7"

2012  12"

1955  1"

1997  5"

1995 12"

 

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can't make this shit up

It’s an interesting duality there… In one hand it’s very doubtful that we’re breaking the December single month snowfall records-although we can hope right? But on the other hand it’s definitely quite viable that that specific region of Northeast or mass where you live gets totally b-f*ed. Just as a wise gambler…

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta hedge for being unlucky sometimes....we remember the good patterns that smoked us, but sometimes we have good patterns that don't produce...there's been some big disappointments in good patterns before (see Dec 1987, Jan 1985, Feb 2010 in SNE, Jan/Feb 1980)

Man, the '80s sucked considering we had some good patterns, lol

I would hit Dec 81 over and over. 27 inches of snow and - 2.8.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would hit Dec 81 over and over. 27 inches of snow and - 2.8.

Dec '81 is actually not a terrible analog either for this pattern. I think late Dec '10- early Jan '11 is a better one, but Dec '81 had that block dominating the pattern for weeks.

Parts of Dec 1995 are a good match too.

[weathafella]

GEFS see it more favorably for northern areas...

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dec '81 is actually not a terrible analog either for this pattern. I think late Dec '10- early Jan '11 is a better one, but Dec '81 had that block dominating the pattern for weeks.

Parts of Dec 1995 are a good match too.

Look at the analog map I posted

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS are trying to get that Dec 11 period in a favorable look for a larger type storm....a few days ahead of previous runs and particularly the EPS.

GEFS pop that Rockies ridge which is very bullish signal for a coastal given the block already in place

 

I still think 7.8.9 can trend 

I also lean more 13.14.15 than I do 20th.  

But obviously that’s just where we sit now and trends up to this point… Everything together and techniques in mind -all that. I reserve the right to modulate.  

I think we are going to have to conserve some progression in the flow so anything that’s a model on a given day probably moves up in time so I understand the tastiness of the 17th of the month but I just think if there’s something real around then, which I’m inclined to think there is, it’s likely to get bumped up by a day or two.

And I agree that flatter faster systems while we slip stream

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GEFS see it more favorably for northern areas...

 

 

I will take either, but of course I prefer the first. Beggars can't be choosy, you may not get either. But this is fun to track. This is why I love the winter time. They may not all pan out, but it gives us all something to track and get excited about.

[Heisy]

End of EURO run (for fun) decent setup with a little better positioning here. This was about to go a little nuts I think.



.

[weatherwiz]

I wish those web developers would cap ridiculous model snow maps at 72-hours. Would be even more perfect to make them disappear all-together but. 

[MJO812]

Euro is amazing

I'm getting excited 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of EURO run (for fun) decent setup with a little better positioning here. This was about to go a little nuts I think.



.

Yeah it is too bad that is at the tail end of that run because that is setting up a monster - I mean if one’s into that sort of thing …

haha. 

yeah that wave diving south of Chicago‘s got a no chance other than the closing off with that look and it’s going to be doing it under a fresh ambient baroclinicity and a ton of cold air - I can tell that without even looking at the other charts, and if the other charts don’t have it their wrong. 
so there. Lol

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still think 7.8.9 can trend 

I also lean more 13.14.15 than I do 20th.  

But obviously that’s just where we sit now and trends up to this point… Everything together and techniques in mind -all that. I reserve the right to modulate.  

I think we are going to have to conserve some progress 70 in the flow so anything that’s a model on a given day probably moves up in time so I understand the tastiness of the 17th of the month but I just think if there’s something real on that day which I’m inclined to think there is is probably going to get bumped up by a day or two. And I agree that flatter faster systems while we slip stream

Yeah and these dates could move all over the place given that the models won't "see" some of these shortwaves....either that or they manifest/eject from their original location in a different manner than the models thought at further lead time. I mean, just as en example, the OP Euro in clown range at D10 is ready to try and pop an OH valley---> NJ coastal type model.....which is prob one of the few types of coastals that could be supported in the still-high gradient pattern there which I don't have to tell you (582dm heights hanging out over N FL fighting the slowly retreating PV lobe to our north)

 

 

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

George, can you please start separate threads for 7-9, 13-15, and 19-21?

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish those web developers would cap ridiculous model snow maps at 72-hours. Would be even more perfect to make them disappear all-together but. 

Same with severe threats being talked about a week out I guess....