WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Where’s Tiger torch and GreenMountaincoffee…? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Where’s Tiger torch and GreenMountaincoffee…? Hiding like snowman19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think Ray would personally drive to my house and punch me in the head. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think Ray would personally drive to my house and punch me in the head. if he doesn't, I will 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The extremely amplified EPO ridge is often something that causes systems to trend colder inside of 7 days....we have been talking a lot about the developing monster NAO block, but in the early stages of that, we actually have a very stout EPO ridge dumping cold into Canada....see below.....this is what is starting to cause the flow to become flatter over the east....pressing the cold further south ahead of the Dec 6-7 system Good point...in such patterns the models tend to underestimate the degree of cold dropping south from Canada in the medium-range. Hopefully we can continue to lower heights here but that's going to be one helluva battle between the SE ridge and one monster gradient. Could be a huge focal point for major cyclogenesis too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 That run also drives home dryslots worst fear. Once the block starts to get established, really compresses things south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Given the extent of blocking I could see a southern lean to the storms. NNE & even a bit further south may get angsty at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think Ray would personally drive to my house and punch me in the head. Another map 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That run also drives home dryslots worst fear. Once the block starts to get established, really compresses things south 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Given the extent of blocking I could see a southern lean to the storms. NNE & even a bit further south may get angsty at times. NNE best shot will be next week with two systems that will continue to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Looks like the OP runs are starting to pick up on the favorable pattern. Now for the details ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Would I ever lose my shit... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lavarock just saw this run 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think Ray would personally drive to my house and punch me in the head. At some point it needs to stop, but it just doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: In some respect it's pointless to sweat the details of model runs this time of year. A good pattern will put snow down somewhere, and that will ultimately change the baroclinicity that affects future events. It's probably one reason (even if minor) that causes models to sometimes underestimate cold in a favorable pattern....on the front side of that, we may lay down snow pack in upstream areas and the models then struggle with how to handle that...and then of course, if the model guidance is wrong on where the snow pack increases, it will be wrong on its lower level boundary layer gradient in that area so all the future frames are corrupted too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Where’s Tiger torch and GreenMountaincoffee…? should have never listened to the pope dude and those geese. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's probably one reason (even if minor) that causes models to sometimes underestimate cold in a favorable pattern....on the front side of that, we may lay down snow pack in upstream areas and the models then struggle with how to handle that...and then of course, if the model guidance is wrong on where the snow pack increases, it will be wrong on its lower level boundary layer gradient in that area so all the future frames are corrupted too. Models are "smart" enough these days to recognize snowpack, the problem is that they will lay it down where they think it should go and as you say the effects cascade downstream. So for instance if we think we get a correction vector colder, we probably don't want to assume the storm that follows is a good bed where the GFS says it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Can't make this shit up 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That run also drives home dryslots worst fear. Once the block starts to get established, really compresses things south We know, Thanks for the reminder, We don't need a mother of all blocks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 That image sums up the snowfall distribution from the last several seasons. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can't make this shit up the definition of a screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That image sums up the snowfall distribution from the last several seasons. Looks like ORH over to my hood is just far enough south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Looks like ORH over to my hood is just far enough south. Exactly....and I'm not quite far enough north, west, east or south. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly....and I'm not quite far enough north, west, east or south. Well, you had me look. In clown fashion it's producing snow where it shouldn't be. Move that north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can't make this shit up 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well, you had me look. In clown fashion it's producing snow where it shouldn't be. Move that north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Lol....look at what people are doing to themselves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like ORH over to my hood is just far enough south. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 GEFS are trying to get that Dec 11 period in a favorable look for a larger type storm....a few days ahead of previous runs and particularly the EPS. GEFS pop that Rockies ridge which is very bullish signal for a coastal given the block already in place 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Gotta get out of Metheun if big snow is desired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another map Seems kind of light given the pattern we are heading into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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