OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't think the Euro is getting upgraded Q2. But it's an ensemble upgrade. EPS going to 9 km and the extended is now going be a separate run rather than an extension of the medium range model. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Storm threat next weekend on gfs That could trend colder. Normally they trend warmer but with a big block building it could go the opposite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is there a modal upgrade today? What's being updated. Rumor has it ‘competence’ is the main objective … 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Speaking of the GFS Investigating NCEP is reporting issues disseminating data which is leading us receiving data slower than normal. Maxres data is most impacted. Posted 12 minutes ago. Nov 30, 2022 - 11:32 EST 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Q2. But it's an ensemble upgrade. EPS going to 9 km and the extended is now going be a separate run rather than an extension of the medium range model. Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Speaking of the GFS Investigating NCEP is reporting issues disseminating data which is leading us receiving data slower than normal. Maxres data is most impacted. Posted 12 minutes ago. Nov 30, 2022 - 11:32 EST Weenies are already breaking it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Q2. But it's an ensemble upgrade. EPS going to 9 km and the extended is now going be a separate run rather than an extension of the medium range model. I feel like all of these additional data streams is like adding fentanyl to the weenies' crack. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like all of these additional data streams is like adding fentanyl to the weenies' crack. That's kind of how I feel about the resolution upgrades to the models. Man what I would give for a nice smoothed 80 km fronotogensis grid sometimes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like all of these additional data streams is like adding fentanyl to the weenies' crack. Yes... all they need now is a return of the LFM and DGEX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: ICON a little more interesting mid week Nasty mix after an initial snow burst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 CMC has a threat for the end of next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That's kind of how I feel about the resolution upgrades to the models. Man what I would give for a nice smoothed 80 km fronotogensis grid sometimes. Yea, give me a microscope to hone in on mesoscale storm dynamics instead of trying to increase general resolution across the global canvass....its helpful to a point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 T.T. stuck at 156 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That could trend colder. Normally they trend warmer but with a big block building it could go the opposite Yep… I spoke about that earlier that exact same aspect because of the differentiating mass fields the correction factor is likely pointed south , i.e colder solution either way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yep… I spoke about that earlier that exact same aspect because of the differentiating mass fields the correction factor is likely pointed south , i.e colder solution either way I totally glossed over that in my write up yesterday, so would have to back pedal if that keeps trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Man, that is one hell of a split flow out west on Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: T.T. stuck at 156 on the GFS The world ends on that day. The billionaires are already heading to their top secret enclaves to wait it out. Appears an extra terrestrial event is going to happen that surpasses Carrington by perhaps a factor of 5. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 The extremely amplified EPO ridge is often something that causes systems to trend colder inside of 7 days....we have been talking a lot about the developing monster NAO block, but in the early stages of that, we actually have a very stout EPO ridge dumping cold into Canada....see below.....this is what is starting to cause the flow to become flatter over the east....pressing the cold further south ahead of the Dec 6-7 system 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 To steal a term from Tip....when you have that type of arctic configuration, the "Correction vector" is colder for us more often than not. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Looks like crazy velocity though - whatever forms should be quick hitting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, MJOatleast7 said: Looks like crazy velocity though - whatever forms should be quick hitting Yes, Dec 6-7 would be an overrunning/SWFE type winter system if it trends cold. The potential for coastal storms would be later into the pattern....most likely beyond 12/12. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Nice signal for a big dog mid month on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 She’s coming hard and fast now 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I have to laugh... Weenies--> "When are the ops going to show me my storms!!!" 12z GFS--> "Shut the fuck up" 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 The big changes in all the op models came with last night's 0Z runs. Now it's almost within a week. Here we go! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: The big changes in all the op models came with last night's 0Z runs. Now it's almost within a week. Here we go! Keeping the Crown nearby in case its needed. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: She’s coming hard and fast now All that was needed was Just a lil patience….as Ginxy advised us on a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: All that was needed was Just a lil patience….as Ginxy advised us on a week ago. Should have snowcovered ground in SNE by this time next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, Dec 6-7 would be an overrunning/SWFE type winter system if it trends cold. The potential for coastal storms would be later into the pattern....most likely beyond 12/12. In some respect it's pointless to sweat the details of model runs this time of year. A good pattern will put snow down somewhere, and that will ultimately change the baroclinicity that affects future events. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now