40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your snowfall estimates are pretty benign for such a nice pattern though. Relatively conservative, and I think the correction vector is upwards with those, but keep in mind that I also expect some not so favorable tracks, too. At the end of the day, snowfall is an educated guess. But yes, maybe I get 90" instead of 65" if we get lucky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 We could replicate 2010-2011 10 more times, and maybe do as well in one of those simulations....don't forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your snowfall estimates are pretty benign for such a nice pattern though. Gotta hedge for being unlucky sometimes....we remember the good patterns that smoked us, but sometimes we have good patterns that don't produce...there's been some big disappointments in good patterns before (see Dec 1987, Jan 1985, Feb 2010 in SNE, Jan/Feb 1980) Man, the '80s sucked considering we had some good patterns, lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gotta hedge for being unlucky sometimes....we remember the good patterns that smoked us, but sometimes we have good patterns that don't produce...there's been some big disappointments in good patterns before (see Dec 1987, Jan 1985, Feb 2010 in SNE, Jan/Feb 1980) Man, the '80s sucked considering we had some good patterns, lol This is something that you can only completely appreciate with forecasting experience....took me several years of doing those outlooks to grasp it, but those 2018, and 2019 double-busts taught me a great deal. You especially have to be careful in la nina because its much more difficult to get an epic season as compared to el nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 I guess confidence intervals would be a better portrayal of how I feel about this season. I am supremely confident that it won't be a ratter, but much less confident that I won't bust low on snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We could replicate 2010-2011 10 more times, and maybe do as well in one of those simulations....don't forget that. That’s a good point, to get those insane snowfall totals you need both a great pattern AND luck. That Feb 2021 storm mu area got 8 inches or so, but just a 20 min drive NW and there was 18 inches of snow on the ground. It’s very easy to get screwed like that even in good patterns especially closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Anyone remember the December 23-26, 2010 Winter Storm? Midwest storm occluded & formed a east coast low. Brought heavy snow Midwest, light snows in OV & heavy snow in NE. One of the GFS runs kind of hints at something like that & the Ensemble mean 500mb pattern favors it. Not saying it's happening, it's pastday 10 lol. I'm just sharing: If you walk the 500mb through day by day of the 2010 Winter storm its almost exactly like above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, stadiumwave said: Anyone remember the December 23-26, 2010 Winter Storm? Midwest storm occluded & formed a east coast low. Brought heavy snow Midwest, light snows in OV & heavy snow in NE. One of the GFS runs kind of hints at something like that & the Ensemble mean 500mb pattern favors it. Not saying it's happening, it's pastday 10 lol. I'm just sharing the similarities. Eastern_US_WinterStorm_December_2010 (2).pdf 325.83 kB · 0 downloads If you walk the 500mb through day by day of the 2010 Winter storm its almost exactly like above. Miller B? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 ICON a little more interesting mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Snow for the GTG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's going to be another huge key too in order to have an extended period of fun and chances. If we get the initial block and it just sits there and slowly rots...we may still get some fun but we'll be playing with fire and maybe only get a chance or two. If we can get pattern re-loading we could get several-plus chances and this is how we can really cash in and pile up. A rotten block in Dec/Jan is better than latter Feb/March. At least climo is still better. That being said the Pacific does actually improve over time so reloads are very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A rotten block in Dec/Jan is better than latter Feb/March. At least climo is still better. That being said the Pacific does actually improve over time so reloads are very possible I'm not so sure I totally buy that. I think there are too many factors to consider to say it's better in one period vs. another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ICON a little more interesting mid week That Dec 5/6 system could trend more favorably with blocking already having an effect on it. Notable compression taking hold. Maybe it'll turn into a swfe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I do see the similarities between the pattern that would be setting up to pattern in 2010-2011. But, it does seem that the pattern back in 2010/2011 seem to push a little further south. Just by a little. So the hope is the storms don't get deflected to the mid-atlantic only. But time will tell. It's still very exciting to track what's coming and I love seeing that we're all discussing this in a positive way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Something brewing for the December 8th timeframe On the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Something brewing for the December 8th timeframe On the gfs? Gfs brings the pattern change in earlier next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 The Para gfs is taking over today Might be running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The Para gfs is taking over today Might be running now Is there a modal upgrade today? What's being updated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Is there a modal upgrade today? What's being updated. Parallel universe? But we're actually upgrading to 16.3 today. Looks like mainly some snow depth changes and increasing data assimilation (which could be important). 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is there a modal upgrade today? What's being updated. Runs that don't have snow for Brooklyn. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is there a modal upgrade today? What's being updated. Just now, OceanStWx said: Parallel universe? But we're actually upgrading to 16.3 today. Looks like mainly some snow depth changes and increasing data assimilation (which could be important). Yes Hopefully the gfs is better this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 13 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Anyone ever considered making snow , air compressor , pressure washer, special snow nozzle for hose , anyone ever try this . Wether it’s for the kids to sled or for a holiday or whatever. I bet some have most of the ingredients except the nozzle A buddy of mine just did it yesterday up here with a pressure washer when the temps were mid 20's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes Hopefully the gfs is better this winter GFS... How about the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, UnitedWx said: GFS... what about the Euro? I don't think the Euro is getting upgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 We watch the 7th. Still more for NNE...but that has been looking cooler and cooler. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 now GFS next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Storm threat next weekend on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I don't think the Euro is getting upgraded Unfortunately it already did... hasn't been the same 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Parallel universe? But we're actually upgrading to 16.3 today. Looks like mainly some snow depth changes and increasing data assimilation (which could be important). Will it be pulling data from weenies basements? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: We watch the 7th. Still more for NNE...but that has been looking cooler and cooler. I've been so busy i have not looked or posted much the last 2 weeks but one here and there, But, Just looked at that actually and you beat me to the comment, That may be the first snow threat for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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