December 2022 Obs/Disc

[brooklynwx99]

soak it in, this is about as weenie as it gets

a 300+ anomaly on a 5 day mean at that range is bonkers

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Full blown El Nino North Pacific look. I'm a bit skeptical it looks that nice, but the EPS were showing a more favorable PAC near the end of the run.

I buy that, especially in January....maybe rushing it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Keep in mind … the COD is a weakened state …. It’s exertion in terms of forcing wave mechanical dispersion/modulation downstream drops below the forcing of the westerlies and becomes lower correlative. 

In other words …  phase 8.1.2 migrations while within the COD do not represent in the pattern very well. 

Right, which isn't a problem when the baseline tropical forcing is already favorable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Courtesy of CAPE from the MA forum.

We can hope for the Holidays!

My January forecast composite:

[weatherwiz]

Wasn't January 2002 was epic with snows here? Isn't that a top 5 winter for BDL? Or maybe that was 2002-2003

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

soak it in, this is about as weenie as it gets

a 300+ anomaly on a 5 day mean at that range is bonkers

 

Hard not to compare these two...people shouldn't expect the same results, but there's obviously potential

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wasn't January 2002 was epic with snows here? Isn't that a top 5 winter for BDL? Or maybe that was 2002-2003

2001-2002 was an utter abortion.

You are thinking of 2002-2003.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2001-2002 was an utter abortion.

You are thinking of 2002-2003.

I only got 3 inches in 2001-2002

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2001-2002 was an utter abortion.

You are thinking of 2002-2003.

The memories of the early 2000's are starting to drift into the sunset as we advance forward in time. 

But now I remember...it was freshman year of high school and the snow pack was pretty solid. During lunch I'd go outside and just walk around in the snow. Used to go in the areas where it was pilled up due to the snowblowers. I would be all wet the remainder of the day.

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

soak it in, this is about as weenie as it gets

a 300+ anomaly on a 5 day mean at that range is bonkers

The only problem I see there is whether or not the ‘neutral’ height field departures in the SE are just an artifact of the flow compression - you know this … I’m just mentioning for the general reader.  

If so … those neutral layers in the TV are misrepresenting a destructive interference pattern.  Insidiously, too, as it sort of hides under cloak of otherwise impressionable features -but the screaming velocities that result are not being represented. 

It’s not a show stopper … just an aspect to bear in mind. Anomalies don’t describe “why” they exist … it could be normal hgts because cold hgts are compressing S … but compression absorbs S/Ws. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Hard not to compare these two...people shouldn't expect the same results, but there's obviously potential

 

 

right? they're kind of uncanny

sometimes I find it hard to make comparisons to periods like that because it can come off as alarmist or pure hype, but I really do think that this pattern could hold really high end potential. just wanna wait like another 5 days or so to get more agreement near AK... the GEFS is so different compared to the EPS/GEPS

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

right? they're kind of uncanny

sometimes I find it hard to make comparisons to periods like that because it can come off as alarmist or pure hype, but I really do think that this pattern could hold really high end potential. just wanna wait like another 5 days or so to get more agreement near AK... the GEFS is so different compared to the EPS/GEPS

Not only was 2010-2011 one of the best ENSO analogs, but it was a dead-ringer for QBO.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Hard not to compare these two...people shouldn't expect the same results, but there's obviously potential

 

 

Agreed … I’ve been impressed with ‘scalar’ analogue. fwtw

It’s a revolving door thing as you hint tho.  Depends on timing the noise within … which ultimately decided system typology 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not only was 2010-2011 one of the best ENSO analogs, but it was a dead-ringer for QBO.

yeah it was one of the top analogs for my coworker and I when crafting the winter outlook. PDO and MEI are great matches too

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The only problem I see there is whether or not the ‘neutral’ height field departures in the SE are just an artifact of the flow compression - you know this … I’m just mentioning for the general reader.  

If so … those neutral layers in the TV are misrepresenting a destructive interference pattern.  Insidiously, too, as it sort of hides under cloak of impressionable featured and the screaming velocities that result are not being represented. 

It’s not a show stopper … just an aspect to bear in mind. Anomalies don’t describe “why” they exist … it could be normal hgts because cold hgts are compressing S … but compression absorbs S/Ws. 

I agree that the block will initially shred some stuff as it strengthens... but the window really opens up for a major event as it decays

the pattern evolution for 18"+ events for NYC, as well as parts of SNE by extension, shows this quite well:

if the pattern depicted by the EPS / GEPS is correct, which I believe it is to a large extent, then our window for a major storm would be in the Dec 15-25 timeframe as the block matures and decays over central Canada

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree that the block will initially shred some stuff as it strengthens... but the window really opens up for a major event as it decays

the pattern evolution for 18"+ events for NYC, as well as parts of SNE by extension, shows this quite well:

if the pattern depicted by the EPS / GEPS is correct, which I believe it is to a large extent, then our window for a major storm would be in the Dec 15-25 timeframe as the block matures and decays over central Canada

Always love and appreciate your analysis.  Keep it coming.
 

Heck, I’d be happy with just some consecutive winter action with this look. 

[Cold Miser]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

soak it in, this is about as weenie as it gets

a 300+ anomaly on a 5 day mean at that range is bonkers

Quite the curved dong. Peyronie's disease?

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree that the block will initially shred some stuff as it strengthens... but the window really opens up for a major event as it decays

the pattern evolution for 18"+ events for NYC, as well as parts of SNE by extension, shows this quite well:

if the pattern depicted by the EPS / GEPS is correct, which I believe it is to a large extent, then our window for a major storm would be in the Dec 15-25 timeframe as the block matures and decays over central Canada

Absolutely…

But again, I was just speaking to the general readers and education point not to be swept away by that look without considering it - that’s all. I mean the circumstance of compression and wind howling and all that stuff and hoping that it relaxes a little and allows those stream interactions and stuff to happen… The fact the matter is we don’t know if that’s going to end up that way in a lot of what goes on in here lol it’s just psychology management ha ha ha but if people are prepared then there’s less of that jilted sense I guess. 

Umm actually no… Because as history of social media dynamics had repeatedly shown … we can set that table with Ming Dynasty elegant anf people will still eat on the floor and get all pissed off anyway…

Kidding .. a little.  

But like I said it’s also not a showstopper… Compression can neg interfere …more likely in the big dog scenarios. We can also end up with overrunning typology.  We’ve seen big results happen from seemingly innocuous flat wave events too.
 

I mean we can also get into the abstraction of climate change and higher pwat that cause systems to act weird - the list is endless if you want to start drilling in. I think the psychology in here would be managed  well enough in a nickel and dime result. 

Yup. You’re right about the relaxation. In fact when I look at all the biggest ones in history (except maybe 1993 super storm which is more like an atmospheric rogue wave…), they happen when the basic geometric pattern shape of the flow was in place but you didn’t have a berserker amount of gradient between the trough and the ridge nodes.  It all comes down to baseline velocity versus exit —>entry velocity’s in short waves embedded

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah it was one of the top analogs for my coworker and I when crafting the winter outlook. PDO and MEI are great matches too

2010 and 2020 were just about identical to this season at both the 30 and 50mb level. January 2021 was also very blocky, but it was more of a N Atl thumb ridge than a true Greenland block, which is easier to get porked with.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree that the block will initially shred some stuff as it strengthens... but the window really opens up for a major event as it decays

the pattern evolution for 18"+ events for NYC, as well as parts of SNE by extension, shows this quite well:

if the pattern depicted by the EPS / GEPS is correct, which I believe it is to a large extent, then our window for a major storm would be in the Dec 15-25 timeframe as the block matures and decays over central Canada

There should be a reload of that block, which will provide another window beyond the first week of January.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2010 and 2020 were just about identical to this season at both the 30 and 50mb level. January 2021 was also very blocky, but it was more of N Atl thumbridge than a true Greenland block, which is easier to get porked with.

N PAC was also pretty damned ugly in Jan 2021 until later that month...once it shifted to a better look, we really went to town for about 3 weeks. The block also kept retrograding and became a Davis Strait block by the end of the month.

We did have a bunch of close calls though earlier that January which easily could have been decent storms. That block essentially kept us from blowtorching all month....we didn't have any fresh cold, so it was still above normal, but if you recall, I think we struggled to get warmer than 40-45F in any of those days....most being in the 30s with lows in the 20s...minimums were a lot more AN than the maximums were.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Absolutely…

But again, I was just speaking to the general readers and education point not to be swept away by that look without considering it - that’s all. I mean the circumstance of compression and wind howling and all that stuff and hoping that it relaxes a little and allows those stream interactions and stuff to happen… The fact the matter is we don’t know if that’s going to end up that way in a lot of what goes on in here lol it’s just psychology management ha ha ha but if people are prepared then there’s less of that jilted sense I guess. 

Umm actually no… Because as history of social media dynamics had repeatedly shown … we can set that table with Ming Dynasty elegant anf people will still eat on the floor and get all pissed off anyway…

Kidding .. a little.  

But like I said it’s also not a showstopper… Compression can neg interfere …more likely in the big dog scenarios. We can also end up with overrunning typology.  We’ve seen big results happen from seemingly innocuous flat wave events too.
 

I mean we can also get into the abstraction of climate change and higher pwat that cause systems to act weird - the list is endless if you want to start drilling in. I think the psychology in here would be managed  well enough in a nickel and dime result. 

Yup. You’re right about the relaxation. In fact when I look at all the biggest ones in history (except maybe 1993 super storm which is more like an atmospheric rogue wave…), they happen when the basic geometric pattern shape of the flow was in place but you didn’t have a berserker amount of gradient between the trough and the ridge nodes.  It all comes down to baseline velocity versus exit —>entry velocity’s in short waves embedded

PD II and 12/5/2003 come to mind....

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

N PAC was also pretty damned ugly in Jan 2021 until later that month...once it shifted to a better look, we really went to town for about 3 weeks. The block also kept retrograding and became a Davis Strait block by the end of the month.

We did have a bunch of close calls though earlier that January which easily could have been decent storms. That block essentially kept us from blowtorching all month....we didn't have any fresh cold, so it was still above normal, but if you recall, I think we struggled to get warmer than 40-45F in any of those days....most being in the 30s with lows in the 20s...minimums were a lot more AN than the maximums were.

2010 and 2020 were my two primary QBO analogs, and were each on my list of 5 primary ENSO analogs.

2020 is also a great match...its actually the only the only year that was a x3 inclusion on my primary analog composite.

[MJO812]

The forecast for the winter of 2010-2011 by many meteorologists were for a warm winter. The warm pattern did happy in February but the blocking really helped from December to end of January .

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2010 and 2020 were my two primary QBO analogs, and were each in my list of 5 primary ENSO analogs.

2020 is also a great match...its actually the only the only year that was a x3 inclusion on my primary analog composite.

DJ of my primary ENSO analog composite:

DJ Primary QBO composite:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pending results, this season was one of the easier forecasts of the nine years that I have been doing this.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There should be a reload of that block, which will provide another window beyond the first week of January.

That's going to be another huge key too in order to have an extended period of fun and chances. If we get the initial block and it just sits there and slowly rots...we may still get some fun but we'll be playing with fire and maybe only get a chance or two. If we can get pattern re-loading we could get several-plus chances and this is how we can really cash in and pile up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That's going to be another huge key too in order to have an extended period of fun and chances. If we get the initial block and it just sits there and slowly rots...we may still get some fun but we'll be playing with fire and maybe only get a chance or two. If we can get pattern re-loading we could get several-plus chances and this is how we can really cash in and pile up.

I think we will have a better Pacific in January, so its not all block dependent. It didn't reload in January 2011, but the Pacific took the handoff.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2010 and 2020 were my two primary QBO analogs, and were each in my list of 5 primary ENSO analogs.

2020 is also a great match.

2020-2021 def left some on the table. This year though, we do have significantly better blocking than that year had at least in December....we'll see how later in the winter goes. We also had a poor Pacific for the first 3 weeks of January 2021....even a neutral N PAC would've probably produced more snow events for us those first 3 weeks. Instead, we basically condensed winter in a 3 week period from end of January through mid-February....sans the 1 wintry week we had in December before the cutter from Dante's Inferno. 

Seems like you are going for a better N PAC in January than Jan 2021 had.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pending results, this season was one of the easier forecasts of the nine years that I have been doing this.

Your snowfall estimates are pretty benign for such a nice pattern though.