MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree with him. It's not a frigid pattern. Good because then it would be congrats DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I wonder what people are actually anticipating this pattern will do . We talk about being realistic in all and I know will and Scott do pretty good job doing that , I just wonder what folks will be satisfied with by New Years . I think I’d be satisfied with a warning level event and an advisory event—with average to BN temps overall. Around the holiday would be best, but no Grinch would be a win in itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree with him. It's not a frigid pattern. I mentioned that two days ago and I mentioned something similar today the EPO was being kind of stingy in this thing… Seems to be abandoning the guidance - last week there was more of that with resulting -30 C 850 plume down to southern Manitoba … so yeah that’s a change in the last three days. That also changes the landscape of this thing. I mean NAO blocks are less useful if they don’t have cold air directed underneath. Once again the models charming us with day 12 delusional grandeur … lol j/k …sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Personally, give me a SWFE of 6” or so, and a decent coastal of 6-8” and I’ll be more than happy. Just for context for the forum: For the month of December the average snowfall is… ORH… 11.9” BDL… 9.1” BOS… 7.7” PVD… 6.6” It would appear for most of interior SNE an 8-12” monthly total should be the expectation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I mentioned that two days ago and I mentioned something similar today the EPO was being kind of stingy in this thing… Seems to be abandoning the guidance - last week there was more of that with resulting -30 C 850 plume down to southern Manitoba … so yeah that’s a change in the last three days. That also changes the landscape of this thing. I mean NAO blocks are less useful if they don’t have cold air directed underneath. Once again the models charming us with day 12 delusional grandeur … lol j/k …sort of I am okay with this...famous last words, but at least I know it won't be one of those powdery, subsidence queens with the coastal front pinned anywhere from scooter down to the canal. I'll take my chances on potentially playing naked twister with the coastal front and enjoying some paste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 18z Para gfs is worlds better than the regular goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just for context for the forum: For the month of December the average snowfall is… ORH… 11.9” BDL… 9.1” BOS… 7.7” PVD… 6.6” It would appear for most of interior SNE an 8-12” monthly total should be the expectation. We are due for some good December regression juju. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree with him. It's not a frigid pattern. Except clown range op gfs is Ballz cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Except clown range op gfs is Ballz cold. And........? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z Para gfs is worlds better than the regular goofus What’s this para BS? Wasn’t the para from last year, (or year before) the normal/everyday GFS now? So there’s another para again lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: And........? A blizzard in the deepest of clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What’s this para BS? Wasn’t the para from last year, (or year before) the normal/everyday GFS now? So there’s another para again lol? They upgrade all the time and while it’s on beta it’s called para. Typically it becomes the op eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: They upgrade all the time and while it’s on beta it’s called para. Typically it becomes the op eventually. Ahhh ok. Thanks Jerry, appreciate the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: A blizzard in the deepest of clown range. Omg…there it is, the first sight of an event. That should make a few happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Omg…there it is, the first sight of an event. That should make a few happy. It actually was a run that matched many expectations (hopes). Brings the cold hammer down from 12/8-9 forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It actually was a run that matched many expectations (hopes). Brings the cold hammer down from 12/8-9 forward Maybe it’s catching on to the pattern change? Sounds about what the Ensembles have been showing for days now. I guess we’ll see? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: A blizzard in the deepest of clown range. Just for Bob.....means nothing to me, aside from conveying the range of possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe it’s catching on to the pattern change? Sounds about what the Ensembles have been showing for days now. I guess we’ll see? That was my thought. Probably will change again but as you say-we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Watching the GEFS roll in (now out through 288) it is a big step towards the 12Z EPS. Almost identical or at least very close. 0Z has not disappointed so far. CMC op is similar to GFS OP and GEPS looks good as well. I will go to sleep before EPS tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yes it’s a good look and I’d take it a million ways from last December. But when asked how I felt about snow, I think it’s wise to approach it more conservatively for you and I. But as I said….I can see how this would be good for almost all of us too. I just don’t have the information in front of me at this moment to make that call. This can't be stressed enough! Regardless of the outcome, there's definitely more chances for wintery weather coming up based on the pattern forecasted compared to the December 2021 pattern which was terrible for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 7 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Don't we always lose at least one winter month Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Sure, if you splice together days or weeks. I mean it's different down here in SNE too. We do lose whole months or close to it, but not every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Heck, nobody knows anything other than the pattern looks very good. That’s it. That’s all anybody can say. That and there will be chances. And you know this…Always hedge low..you’ll win more often than not. Personally, give me a SWFE of 6” or so, and a decent coastal of 6-8” and I’ll be more than happy. mid-season form, what a mess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not exactly inspiring confidence there To be fair, the blizzard of 78 could be bearing down on this forum and you would probably be negative lol 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 That thing on the 6-7 keeps coming in colder. Might be something to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Saturday May be the last torch for awhile. Could be low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That thing on the 6-7 keeps coming in colder. Might be something to watch. Remember when people were worried about the 18z gefs ? 0z gefs looks way better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Remember when people were worried about the 18z gefs ? 0z gefs looks way better. They’ll be some fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Saturday May be the last torch for awhile. Could be low 60s. Looks like the last damaging wind event too on Saturday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They’ll be some fluctuations. Not like what we saw yesterday. Gfs and gefs were in another world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 A storm signal for mid December on gfs and eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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