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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's amazing how terrible MOS (and this even includes the NBM b/c that isn't particularly good) can be at temperature forecasts. And this statement applies for the entire country. 

It’s going to struggle with tranquil warmth this time of year. Especially with bare ground. 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s going to struggle with tranquil warmth this time of year. Especially with bare ground. 

I thought the NBM was to fix some of those issues. It even struggled big time with the Arctic air last week. I think one night DEN got down to like -24 and MOS/NBM was way off. 

It's pretty cool how NBM gives a percentile output but that doesn't even capture the full potential. Bufkit is still the best way to forecast temps but way too time consuming. 

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45 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

62 ORH is a torch. Still some room to go up across eastern areas if it can fully mix out

Crushed the daily record by 6F so far. 
 

I’m still always amazed at the 70F on 12/29/84 when I look at record highs around this time. Then I see an 8/-3 day on the same date in 2017. Late Dec seems to have the highest variance of temps than any other time of year…anecdotally anyway. I’d have to run the numbers. 

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

Man, what a torch....kids in tshirts and shorts right now, my Davis is 63.7° right now....other stations around me are also 60-63, what a day. After the recent no snow/brutal cold we just went through, I am almost ready to say bring on Spring....

This is how you draw up a thaw…no snow to melt, just warm the frozen ground and dry the mud. 

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Neighboring offices pushing us to go with higher percentiles of NBM guidance for high temps, but I've played this game before. 

I know I'm a bit of an outlier, but this area can actually CAD despite sunshine this time of year. Right back into the 30s now while MHT-south is frolicking in the 50s. Down to 37F here.

123022temps2.gif

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