December 2022 Obs/Disc

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..and many people would debate how "produce" should be defined. For some individuals in the forum "produce" is defined as a major snowstorm. 

Yeah there are certainly some lose definitions of what is meant by produce. Like even though we're getting screwed beyond belief here, the pattern still technically (is) going to produce a significant and high-impact storm (its just in the form of rain, flash flooding, high wind, and coastal flooding) as opposed to getting buried in snow tickling blizzard criteria.

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. Once ENSO flips it will be fast and decisive IMO. But I would argue we actually saw it take over even earlier than it was observed...if you remember, even the el nino of 18-19' was more nina like.

December 2015 was like a La Nina, we had a raging SE ridge, normally in a strong Nino you'd have the monster low in the SW GOA, some sort of ridging east of it near the west coast and usually troffy or zonal like flow in the east.  That pattern made no sense at the time....I think if I remember right some speculated the crazy MJO wave at the time may have overwhelmed what was even a strong Nino

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah there are certainly some lose definitions of what is meant by produce. Like even though we're getting screwed beyond belief here, the pattern still technically (is) going to produce a significant and high-impact storm (its just in the form of rain, flash flooding, high wind, and coastal flooding) as opposed to getting buried in snow tickling blizzard criteria.

I know many people who are loving this pattern because of the lack of cold and the lack of snow. Their definition would be a lot different lol

I also know someone that bought a truck with a snowplow and sander less than 2 years ago. He currently has it up for sale...his definition would be a lot more along the lines of "snowy and cold"

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing beats Christmas Day 2002.

24” in the backyard SW of ALB.  Last winter living there… got a Christmas Hail Mary.

It can be a broken record claim within the Xmas discussion, but nothing will break that daily snowstorm IMO.  Pure glory, pivot point.  18” on Christmas afternoon/evening. Sustained 3”/hr.  Up to 5”/hr recorded as it tightened up.  A couple feet in very short duration during the holiday.

 

One of the bigger busts here - forecast was 8-12" (which verified 12 miles SE at Belgrade Village) but we got 1".  A relative living at the eastern edge of AUG had 15".  IIRC, GYX had 18", their biggest snowfall until Feb 2013.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

did you also write off La Nina for a 3rd consecutive year?

No. My early speculation last March was el nino, but I never wrote anything off. It was apparent in my ENSO blogs last summer that it would be la nina.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

One of the bigger busts here - forecast was 8-12" (which verified 12 miles SE at Belgrade Village) but we got 1".  A relative living at the eastern edge of AUG had 15".  IIRC, GYX had 18", their biggest snowfall until Feb 2013.

I wasn't even supposed to get accumulating snow on Christmas Day in 2002 down here .

I ended up with 5 inches

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree, no more posting of the "pattern looks great in 10-14 days"...

Yeaaa…no. That’s what this forum is about. And what would you do if you couldn’t meme and gif your way through winter?

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yeaaa…no. That’s what this forum is about. And what would you do if you couldn’t meme and gif your way through winter?

triggered so early? lol

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yeaaa…no. That’s what this forum is about. And what would you do if you couldn’t meme and gif your way through winter?

Great idea limit discussion to only today's and tomorrow's weather and post sports memes. 

[wkd]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

The West is in a mega drought, so I'm ok sacrificing my storms for them for a decade

Great post!  I don't know about 10 years though.

[Whineminster]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hell why not roll with the nutties. Feb 2015 here we come. 

The was supposedly a terrible pattern, and looked what happened. Whamoooo

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yeaaa…no. That’s what this forum is about. And what would you do if you couldn’t meme and gif your way through winter?

Agreed 

What models handed the block well and what is sorta the post mortem on how it evolved , it’s duration , orientation . I basically stopped Following it 5 days ago but did it crap the bed ? And yes This is honestly a serious question 

with patterns and storms there is no much talk and back and forth leading up to the event and very little about how it evolved in retrospect 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Agreed 

What models handed the block well and what is sorta the post mortem on how it evolved , it’s duration , orientation . I basically stopped Following it 5 days ago but did it crap the bed ? And yes This is honestly a serious question 

with patterns and storms there is no much talk and back and forth leading up to the event and very little about how it evolved in retrospect 

Euro prob handled the block the best in the medium range...but it still had its struggles. GFS seemed better at handling the PAC. The block was formidable.....it caused two potential cutters to slide underneath us (12/11 first and then 12/16 later).....12/16 could've been a monster but we were unable to get the whole ULL under us like that Euro run had (and a few other models) on the 12z run the day of the GTG.....so instead we only got a partial lobe extending under us and it allowed too much easterly taint.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro prob handled the block the best in the medium range...but it still had its struggles. GFS seemed better at handling the PAC. The block was formidable.....it caused two potential cutters to slide underneath us (12/11 first and then 12/16 later).....12/16 could've been a monster but we were unable to get the whole ULL under us like that Euro run had (and a few other models) on the 12z run the day of the GTG.....so instead we only got a partial lobe extending under us and it allowed too much easterly taint.

Could have easily had 12/16 and this week be big dogs.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

The was supposedly a terrible pattern, and looked what happened. Whamoooo

I thought Will said it was good, at least good near the end of January.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could have easily had 12/16 and this week be big dogs.

Yes, this week failed in part due to the Pacific being slightly more hostile than modeled, but we prob wouldve gotten away with it if that PV lobe had managed to get trapped in Quebec...but it barely misses and rotates back N and NW. Them's the breaks but they happen and are very difficult to foresee beyond several days.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Thanks 

[NorEastermass128]

Sipping pina coladas while swinging in our banana hammocks all the way up into NNE as we ring in 2023?!  12z GFS looks quite mild.

[George001]

I don’t get writing off early January. The models were wrong about the epic pattern, they could easily be wrong about the expected garbage pattern. Just shift that vortex in AK a few hundred miles west and things look a lot different. The Friday storm, yeah that’s gonna cut. But after that in my opinion we will have more chances. The models are showing signs of the blocking reloading, but the Pac is bad similar to the first half of December. Even if the models are right, the shutout look only lasts like a week at most on most guidance. Besides, isn’t there a lot more room for error with a bad pac in January than December? The pac still matters don’t get me wrong, but maybe we can work with a bad pac+good Atlantic when climo is more favorable. 

[Snowcrazed71]

30 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Sipping pina coladas while swinging in our banana hammocks all the way up into NNE as we ring in 2023?!  12z GFS looks quite mild.

With all the changes that we've seen or the models were showing much colder weather and it not totally working out, there's no way we can take the models out 2 weeks from now and think that we're going into a super mild phase. There is going to be differences and changes and surprises. It's happened before and it will happen again

[MJO812]

It's funny how people are jumping off bridges because of the warmth coming but the pattern is reshuffling .

Good thing is that the block looks like it's rebuilding and thats why next week has a shot.

Also LA Nina is on its last leg. Soon or later we will be going into a weak El Nino or neutral state .

[brooklynwx99]

the wave midweek next week is worth keeping an eye on

we've seen the look out west trend a lot more meridional as well as the blocking over Greenland trend into the Davis Strait, which leads to a farther W, more elongated TPV

obviously thread the needle, but there's nothing else on the horizon and this at least has a shot. we've seen setups much crappier than this produce before

[brooklynwx99]

HA i forgot there was a thread for that. why in god's name is there a thread for that?

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

HA i forgot there was a thread for that. why in god's name is there a thread for that?

GEORGE. But at this point…is it really that odd? 

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, wkd said:

Great post!  I don't know about 10 years though.

Happy almost birthday!  Since you and I were born 20 days apart a 10 year sacrifice of winter may be a forever one for us.

[Snowcrazed71]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's funny how people are jumping off bridges because of the warmth coming but the pattern is reshuffling .

Good thing is that the block looks like it's rebuilding and thats why next week has a shot.

Also LA Nina is on its last leg. Soon or later we will be going into a weak El Nino or neutral state .

I do agree that learning is starting to wane. I don't think we'll get into El nino before winters over. We do and can however get into a more neutral state as we head into late winter. That's just my thoughts now but of course things can change like the weather lol

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I do agree that learning is starting to wane. I don't think we'll get into El nino before winters over. We do and can however get into a more neutral state as we head into late winter. That's just my thoughts now but of course things can change like the weather lol

Since there tends to be about a 3 month lag, what's the difference?  With that said, too much emphasis is put on enso state sometimes.  There are many factors-some enso, others bad luck.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Since there tends to be about a 3 month lag, what's the difference?  With that said, too much emphasis is put on enso state sometimes.  There are many factors-some enso, others bad luck.

The narrative I think is set in stone unfortunately....there will be PTSD from this 3 year La Nina. The '07-'08s, '08-'09s, '10-'11s and '17-'18s of the world will be quickly forgotten next time a La Nina is coming.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

With all the changes that we've seen or the models were showing much colder weather and it not totally working out, there's no way we can take the models out 2 weeks from now and think that we're going into a super mild phase. There is going to be differences and changes and surprises. It's happened before and it will happen again

maybe the media was hyping the arctic air this week, but I thought we were supposed to be BN this week. I don't recall what was frcst this week during last week's discussions here, but the airmass totally retreated. I don't remember the last time where the intrusion of a colder airmass that was modeled to last several days, totally retreated within days leading up to it. I'm sure someone will provide some dates

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great idea limit discussion to only today's and tomorrow's weather and post sports memes. 

Sounds like summer.

I get that people want results, as do I, but there is more to the hobby for me. I think most see it this way too.