December 2022 Obs/Disc

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You mean 1998? I think '99 was garbage.

'95 was def my best December from a sensible wx standpoint if you like consistent cold and lots of snow events leading into Xmas. That month did leave a little on the table though with the messy phase of the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm....that one was supposed to be a blockbuster but it turned into a mundane warning event. Nothing wrong with that obviously, but there was a little feeling of letdown there.

But we had so many snow events it was hard to complain....you had 12/9 over the interior, and then the massively overperofming clipper warning event on 12/14...then the IVT on Dec 16-17 that dropped 2-4" and then of course the bigger storm on Dec 19-20....but then the ULL just sat and spinned up in Maine and we had random snow showers between Dec 21-26 each day. Always seemed to be mood flakes falling with a deep pack. We must've had 18-20" OTG (biggest difference between interior and coast that month was the 12/9 event where coast had mostly rain after snow to start)

Cosgrove insists on comparing this coming January to 1996...I was like, I get the timing of the thaw, but there has been no snow on the coast. He had kind of a smug response to the effect of "well, winter only begins in a few days and there are events on the ensembles, so don't cancel, ok?". 

I just dropped it, but I don't really know what he is talking about. There is nothing apparent in sight.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove insists on comparing this coming January to 1996...I was like, I get the timing of the thaw, but there has been no snow on the coast. He had kind of a smug response to the effect of "well, winter only begins in a few days and there are events on the ensembles, so don't cancel, ok?". 

I just dropped it, but I don't really know what he is talking about. There is nothing apparent in sight.

Maybe he was buying the GGEM 12/27 storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove insists on comparing this coming January to 1996...I was like, I get the timing of the thaw, but there has been no snow on the coast. He had kind of a smug response to the effect of "well, winter only begins in a few days and there are events on the ensembles, so don't cancel, ok?". 

I just dropped it, but I don't really know what he is talking about. There is nothing apparent in sight.

Neither does he . Guys off the rails like DT

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

Need some charts from the young Met in Brooklyn to cheer things up.

His egg nog is probably phasing with a few other choice beverages right about now.....nog capturing rum and just spinning right over the Benchmark.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Neither does he . Guys off the rails like DT

He's has been very good the past few years IMO....second to none and its not close....but he seems like he is reaching here.

[weatherwiz]

This while week has been absolutely deflating...well really the last 10-days. We need an atmospheric throw up because its been the same garbage the past 3-years. We see these "favorable East Coast" patterns pop-up in the long-range only for cyclogenesis to end up happening several hundred miles farther West. it's absolutely insane. Each of the past 3 winters now have seen the same thing happen with these powerful Arctic front intrusions...the trough axis ends up being way too far west. The shift with this from mid-to-late week and the end of the weekend was ridiculous.

At least there is actually the potential for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms Friday now

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Close the shades until 1/5-1/10

At least the GEFS sort of caved to the GEPS/EPS to a degree...none really show a SER anymore, the main bad change was they've delayed the vortex in AK moving west and the PNA going positive somewhat but they've at least moved more towards there being no connection between the block over Canada and the ridge anymore.  Part of this change is probably the fact the breakdown of the western ridge has been delayed too from 2-3 days ago which is no surprise, the ensembles showed a total breakdown by 12/26-12/27 and now that is delayed which ultimately kicks the entire evolution further down

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's has been very good the past few years IMO....second to none and it’s not close....but he seems like he is reaching here.

it’s not only modeling that needs to show a system.…maybe the guys sees something from years of doing this for a living that makes him feel a certain way. What he forgot about meteorology, most will never know.  
 

I completely agree, the guy is a talented MET.  If he thinks there’s a change, or is comparing to January 96, I’ll believe him at this point.  Nothing else has worked. So it can’t be any worse.  And IMO, DT can’t hold a candle to Cosgrove.  

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This while week has been absolutely deflating...well really the last 10-days. We need an atmospheric throw up because its been the same garbage the past 3-years. We see these "favorable East Coast" patterns pop-up in the long-range only for cyclogenesis to end up happening several hundred miles farther West. it's absolutely insane. Each of the past 3 winters now have seen the same thing happen with these powerful Arctic front intrusions...the trough axis ends up being way too far west. The shift with this from mid-to-late week and the end of the weekend was ridiculous.

At least there is actually the potential for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms Friday now

Unfortunately too the most recent ENSO runs now are less optimistic for a Nino in 23-24, the mean is actually around -0.1C lol...I still think given various factors in recent weeks we are going into at least a very weak Nino next winter, it may just take til spring til the predicting models see it

[CoastalWx]

January 1996 LOL. 

[CoastalWx]

Hell why not roll with the nutties. Feb 2015 here we come. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This while week has been absolutely deflating...well really the last 10-days. We need an atmospheric throw up because its been the same garbage the past 3-years. We see these "favorable East Coast" patterns pop-up in the long-range only for cyclogenesis to end up happening several hundred miles farther West. it's absolutely insane. Each of the past 3 winters now have seen the same thing happen with these powerful Arctic front intrusions...the trough axis ends up being way too far west. The shift with this from mid-to-late week and the end of the weekend was ridiculous.

At least there is actually the potential for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms Friday now

That is what I said...all three of these la ninas have had the same overall tenor. Thankfully, we are done with it after this year.

Modoki el nino next season...book it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Unfortunately too the most recent ENSO runs now are less optimistic for a Nino in 23-24, the mean is actually around -0.1C lol...I still think given various factors in recent weeks we are going into at least a very weak Nino next winter, it may just take til spring til the predicting models see it

My fear is the atmosphere has been in a predominately La Nina state for so long that it probably will take like a year-plus to get rid of it's effect  

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This while week has been absolutely deflating...well really the last 10-days. We need an atmospheric throw up because its been the same garbage the past 3-years. We see these "favorable East Coast" patterns pop-up in the long-range only for cyclogenesis to end up happening several hundred miles farther West. it's absolutely insane. Each of the past 3 winters now have seen the same thing happen with these powerful Arctic front intrusions...the trough axis ends up being way too far west. The shift with this from mid-to-late week and the end of the weekend was ridiculous.

At least there is actually the potential for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms Friday now

Agree, and it is why there is no sense in discussing a good/great pattern until a good/great pattern is actually in place.  Terrific post!

[WinterWolf]

Lol..why don’t we concentrate on this winter which doesn’t officially start till tomorrow lol.  We can’t tell what the next two weeks brings…let alone next year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

January 1996 LOL. 

Yea, I mean...I went big in January, too....but you have to be mindful of allowing a preconceived notion to sink you moving forward. You need to let go of the outlook and see what is happening. 

Right now, early January certainly doesn't look good, but I am going to give it another week before getting too nervous about January.

[TalcottWx]

28 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree, no more posting of the "pattern looks great in 10-14 days"...

Meh, this is literally the reason for this forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

My fear is the atmosphere has been in a predominately La Nina state for so long that it probably will take like a year-plus to get rid of it's effect  

No. Once ENSO flips it will be fast and decisive IMO. But I would argue we actually saw it take over even earlier than it was observed...if you remember, even the el nino of 18-19' was more nina like.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is what I said...all three of these la ninas have had the same overall tenor. Thankfully, we are done with it after this year.

Modoki el nino next season...book it.

I think we had some discussions about this too in the ENSO thread (or one of these threads). Even though some other atmospheric teleconnections and structures are different, the roots are still there. We just can't shake the theme of trough axis in the southern Plains region. 

what I want to do when I have some more time is use the daily composite plots and create gifs of 30-45 day periods centered around these Arctic intrusion periods each of the past 3 years and try to identify the leading cause. My guess is probably riding in the Atlantic...when we get the deep troughs digging in the ridge in the Atlantic just builds north and the pattern just buckles and we get porked like a pig on the roaster. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

My fear is the atmosphere has been in a predominately La Nina state for so long that it probably will take like a year-plus to get rid of it's effect  

That has been mentioned by other on air and online mets...some have even mentioned that it is within the realm of possibility of a 4th consecutive La Nina. It would not be wise to completely write of the possibility of that occurring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

That has been mentioned by other on air and online mets...some have even mentioned that it is within the realm of possibility of a 4th consecutive La Nina. It would not be wise to completely write of the possibility of that occurring.

Its written off in my mind.

[ineedsnow]

6.4 earthquake in California got to shake things up out west some how 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its written off in my mind.

did you also write off La Nina for a 3rd consecutive year?

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..why don’t we concentrate on this winter which doesn’t officially start till tomorrow lol.  We can’t tell what the next two weeks brings…let alone next year. 

Coping baby steps. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

6.4 earthquake in California got to shake things up out west some how 

Maybe the CFS sniffed out the quake and models gonna shift that ridge east and give us a blizzard now.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree, and it is why there is no sense in discussing a good/great pattern until a good/great pattern is actually in place.  Terrific post!

As a huge fan of research and interest in long-range forecasting, there needs to be more studying and analyzing patterns as a whole. When it comes to research, whether it be with severe weather or winter storms, etc. there is a focus to just look at the events which produced. Not to say this is a bad thing. It's what needs to be done to understand these systems and help with forecast awareness, but when you're ONLY looking at what produced in the outcome you're missing a whole lot else. 

How many times do these "good patterns" really produce? Is it 70% of the time? 50% of the time? 5% of the time? I mean in reality, if the percent probability is very low, can it really be characterized as "good"?

But this is also why a pattern only means so much, at the end of the day it's how the pieces are moving, evolve, and interact within the pattern that are going to determine the outcome. And you can have the same pattern 50 times, how these move, evolve, and interact, are going to happen 50 different way. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe the CFS sniffed out the quake and models gonna shift that ridge east and give us a blizzard now.

75,000 without power  can we beat it now this weekend lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

75,000 without power  can we beat it now this weekend lol

That's about the total population of Humbolt County.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6.4 earthquake in California got to shake things up out west some how 

This whole mess is all the Tongan volcanos fault....of course any other eruption would cause short term cooling, this one would have to cause the exact opposite.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As a huge fan of research and interest in long-range forecasting, there needs to be more studying and analyzing patterns as a whole. When it comes to research, whether it be with severe weather or winter storms, etc. there is a focus to just look at the events which produced. Not to say this is a bad thing. It's what needs to be done to understand these systems and help with forecast awareness, but when you're ONLY looking at what produced in the outcome you're missing a whole lot else. 

How many times do these "good patterns" really produce? Is it 70% of the time? 50% of the time? 5% of the time? I mean in reality, if the percent probability is very low, can it really be characterized as "good"?

But this is also why a pattern only means so much, at the end of the day it's how the pieces are moving, evolve, and interact within the pattern that are going to determine the outcome. And you can have the same pattern 50 times, how these move, evolve, and interact, are going to happen 50 different way. 

..and many people would debate how "produce" should be defined. For some individuals in the forum "produce" is defined as a major snowstorm.