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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

At least its not cooling.  That would be nice…for awhile…then the environment will not be able to sustain 8 or 10 billion people.  It will cool eventually since we are in an inter glacial period as opposed to a post glacial period.  I think 10000 years is a good geological time frame to measure climate, certainly not 20.  10,000 years is 1/20th of human existance.  A lot happened climatology speaking in our frankly very brief 200,000 year history as a species.

Great post!

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It has warmed but the long wave pattern is what I’m talking about.  I mean the west is way below average.  Snow frequently the past 2 years in Seattle.  It has happened before on similar patterns.  To me the biggest effect of cc is the length of the cold season which seems shorter.

Some of the biggest errors I see in the CC discussions are trying to disentangle underlying longterm anthropogenic climate warming from natural variability over shorter time spans. The northern plains to northern Rockies have a cooling trend in winter since the late 1990s. Does that mean climate change is causing it to be colder there in winter? No of course not. It's natural variability there temporarily overriding the underlying warming trend. Same thing can happen in reverse....somewhere can warm faster than what CC is responsible for, but usually that is natural variability working in the same direction as CC. However, in the latter case, I usually see it all assigned to CC because it's easier to explain that way.

The other big errors are often in attribution studies. These are studies that try and show if certain types of events will become more frequent or less frequent in the future. The error most often seen is that the study may have like 4 or 5 emissions scenarios, and the one that makes headlines is the RCP 8.5 scenario which is unrealistic to begin with. But that scenario has the most drastic changes so it makes for a good story. Other times, I've also seen weird stuff where severe arctic outbreaks are blamed on CC like in 2014 in the midwest....when empirical evidence shows that arctic outbreaks are becoming less common.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the biggest errors I see in the CC discussions are trying to disentangle underlying longterm anthropogenic climate warming from natural variability over shorter time spans. The northern plains to northern Rockies have a cooling trend in winter since the late 1990s. Does that mean climate change is causing it to be colder there in winter? No of course not. It's natural variability there temporarily overriding the underlying warming trend. Same thing can happen in reverse....somewhere can warm faster than what CC is responsible for, but usually that is natural variability working in the same direction as CC. However, in the latter case, I usually see it all assigned to CC because it's easier to explain that way.

The other big errors are often in attribution studies. These are studies that try and show if certain types of events will become more frequent or less frequent in the future. The error most often seen is that the study may have like 4 or 5 emissions scenarios, and the one that makes headlines is the RCP 8.5 scenario which is unrealistic to begin with. But that scenario has the most drastic changes so it makes for a good story. Other times, I've also seen weird stuff where severe arctic outbreaks are blamed on CC like in 2014 in the midwest....when empirical evidence shows that arctic outbreaks are becoming less common.

That in part also helps to explain our quicker warming here. 

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30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All a bunch of crap!  When we’re all dead and gone and our kids too…it’ll still be snowing and doing everything it’s doing now, and has been doing.   
 

Folks worry about the dumbest shit. 

CC talk triggers the fangs lol.
 

No doubt CC is happening but last winter was full of penny and nickel snows so while our winters are experiencing increased variance of temps and snowfall, we’re not turning into Savannah until the next ice age is upon us. And by then, people would probably have destroyed earth on our own anyway. 

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I'm still working on plotting data for the last century from the closest official station to me, I've only got snow complete so far and even in that short period, you can see peaks and valleys, of course some anomalous years that scew the mean, but 20s and 30s of the 20th century were poor in terms of snowfall, really peaked from mid 50-late 60s, then fell through the early 90s, and up again, and on it goes... I'll continue with total rainfall, temps, and total precip and plot to have a good idea, I'm going out on a limb and say it'll peak and valley accordingly

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.1469b121fa4d938d657208899fd52bae.pngVerbatim too progressive but it’s worth it watching this storm. This will likely change a lot until after the inland runner on Friday. The pieces need to come together, but if they do this storm has big potential, there is a lot of energy there.

George it is like the chaim bloom backers thinking bloom was going to sign bogaerts...

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.1469b121fa4d938d657208899fd52bae.pngVerbatim too progressive but it’s worth it watching this storm. This will likely change a lot until after the inland runner on Friday. The pieces need to come together, but if they do this storm has big potential, there is a lot of energy there.

Seems like a lot of destructive interference on that look. There is a temp ridge spike out west on 12/26 though, so not impossible to try and sneak a system in there, but it's unlikely.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty ugly look in the 11-15 day. That sucks.

Well when the 11-15 looked about as good as it could…it either never materialized, or when it did, nothing has happened. 
 

So maybe we take our chances with the 11-15 looking bad, and maybe it’ll change for the Better, or we catch a good break and a storm actually hits us with snow in a bad pattern…cuz they didn’t hit us in a good one. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well when the 11-15 looked about as good as it could…it either never materialized, or when it did, nothing has happened. 
 

So maybe we take our chances with the 11-15 looking bad, and maybe it’ll change for the Better, or we catch a good break and a storm actually hits us with snow in a bad pattern…cuz they didn’t hit us in a good one. 

my thoughts exactly!

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well when the 11-15 looked about as good as it could…it either never materialized, or when it did, nothing has happened. 
 

So maybe we take our chances with the 11-15 looking bad, and maybe it’ll change for the Better, or we catch a good break and a storm actually hits us with snow in a bad pattern…cuz they didn’t hit us in a good one. 

Well it has to be cold enough to snow lol. That may not happen. I think into early January it does change a bit. We'll see, but it won't happen right away on 1/1. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it has to be cold enough to snow lol. That may not happen. I think into early January it does change a bit. We'll see, but it won't happen right away on 1/1. 

More climo wiggle room...12/16 probably would have been alot more snow a month later for many of us.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it has to be cold enough to snow lol. That may not happen. I think into early January it does change a bit. We'll see, but it won't happen right away on 1/1. 

Lol….well we’ve had zero production from the good 11-15 day looks, it really can’t get any worse with the bad looks. So maybe the irony will keep working, and the Reverse will happen again, and we catch a break and the bad look actually spawns/produces something?  

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol….well we’ve had zero production from the good 11-15 day looks, it really can’t get any worse with the bad looks. So maybe the irony will keep working, and the Reverse will happen again, and we catch a break and the bad look actually spawns/produces something?  

Anything's possible. I taught my dog to say I love you.

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