weathafella Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: At least its not cooling. That would be nice…for awhile…then the environment will not be able to sustain 8 or 10 billion people. It will cool eventually since we are in an inter glacial period as opposed to a post glacial period. I think 10000 years is a good geological time frame to measure climate, certainly not 20. 10,000 years is 1/20th of human existance. A lot happened climatology speaking in our frankly very brief 200,000 year history as a species. Great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: I'm fine with that. I'll take a prolific blizzard mixed in with mild weather Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: It has warmed but the long wave pattern is what I’m talking about. I mean the west is way below average. Snow frequently the past 2 years in Seattle. It has happened before on similar patterns. To me the biggest effect of cc is the length of the cold season which seems shorter. Some of the biggest errors I see in the CC discussions are trying to disentangle underlying longterm anthropogenic climate warming from natural variability over shorter time spans. The northern plains to northern Rockies have a cooling trend in winter since the late 1990s. Does that mean climate change is causing it to be colder there in winter? No of course not. It's natural variability there temporarily overriding the underlying warming trend. Same thing can happen in reverse....somewhere can warm faster than what CC is responsible for, but usually that is natural variability working in the same direction as CC. However, in the latter case, I usually see it all assigned to CC because it's easier to explain that way. The other big errors are often in attribution studies. These are studies that try and show if certain types of events will become more frequent or less frequent in the future. The error most often seen is that the study may have like 4 or 5 emissions scenarios, and the one that makes headlines is the RCP 8.5 scenario which is unrealistic to begin with. But that scenario has the most drastic changes so it makes for a good story. Other times, I've also seen weird stuff where severe arctic outbreaks are blamed on CC like in 2014 in the midwest....when empirical evidence shows that arctic outbreaks are becoming less common. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 So the Friday storm is completely done? no chance in a shift or something else that could make the storm more favorable for us? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, DJln491 said: So the Friday storm is completely done? no chance in a shift or something else that could make the storm more favorable for us? No chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Some of the biggest errors I see in the CC discussions are trying to disentangle underlying longterm anthropogenic climate warming from natural variability over shorter time spans. The northern plains to northern Rockies have a cooling trend in winter since the late 1990s. Does that mean climate change is causing it to be colder there in winter? No of course not. It's natural variability there temporarily overriding the underlying warming trend. Same thing can happen in reverse....somewhere can warm faster than what CC is responsible for, but usually that is natural variability working in the same direction as CC. However, in the latter case, I usually see it all assigned to CC because it's easier to explain that way. The other big errors are often in attribution studies. These are studies that try and show if certain types of events will become more frequent or less frequent in the future. The error most often seen is that the study may have like 4 or 5 emissions scenarios, and the one that makes headlines is the RCP 8.5 scenario which is unrealistic to begin with. But that scenario has the most drastic changes so it makes for a good story. Other times, I've also seen weird stuff where severe arctic outbreaks are blamed on CC like in 2014 in the midwest....when empirical evidence shows that arctic outbreaks are becoming less common. That in part also helps to explain our quicker warming here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: All a bunch of crap! When we’re all dead and gone and our kids too…it’ll still be snowing and doing everything it’s doing now, and has been doing. Folks worry about the dumbest shit. CC talk triggers the fangs lol. No doubt CC is happening but last winter was full of penny and nickel snows so while our winters are experiencing increased variance of temps and snowfall, we’re not turning into Savannah until the next ice age is upon us. And by then, people would probably have destroyed earth on our own anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, DJln491 said: So the Friday storm is completely done? no chance in a shift or something else that could make the storm more favorable for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Pretty nasty snow squall coming through 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I'm still working on plotting data for the last century from the closest official station to me, I've only got snow complete so far and even in that short period, you can see peaks and valleys, of course some anomalous years that scew the mean, but 20s and 30s of the 20th century were poor in terms of snowfall, really peaked from mid 50-late 60s, then fell through the early 90s, and up again, and on it goes... I'll continue with total rainfall, temps, and total precip and plot to have a good idea, I'm going out on a limb and say it'll peak and valley accordingly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Verbatim too progressive but it’s worth it watching this storm. This will likely change a lot until after the inland runner on Friday. The pieces need to come together, but if they do this storm has big potential, there is a lot of energy there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 New Years to first few weeks of January should feature record warmth 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: Verbatim too progressive but it’s worth it watching this storm. This will likely change a lot until after the inland runner on Friday. The pieces need to come together, but if they do this storm has big potential, there is a lot of energy there. George it is like the chaim bloom backers thinking bloom was going to sign bogaerts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, George001 said: Verbatim too progressive but it’s worth it watching this storm. This will likely change a lot until after the inland runner on Friday. The pieces need to come together, but if they do this storm has big potential, there is a lot of energy there. Seems like a lot of destructive interference on that look. There is a temp ridge spike out west on 12/26 though, so not impossible to try and sneak a system in there, but it's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Pretty ugly look in the 11-15 day. That sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty ugly look in the 11-15 day. That sucks. Considering that is 12/30-1/3 it should not be surprising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, qg_omega said: New Years to first few weeks of January should feature record warmth Interesting phrasing; "first few weeks of January"??? Didn't know any month could have "first few weeks"!!!! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty ugly look in the 11-15 day. That sucks. Well when the 11-15 looked about as good as it could…it either never materialized, or when it did, nothing has happened. So maybe we take our chances with the 11-15 looking bad, and maybe it’ll change for the Better, or we catch a good break and a storm actually hits us with snow in a bad pattern…cuz they didn’t hit us in a good one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty ugly look in the 11-15 day. That sucks. Why should we look that far anymore ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 59 minutes ago, dendrite said: Little country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well when the 11-15 looked about as good as it could…it either never materialized, or when it did, nothing has happened. So maybe we take our chances with the 11-15 looking bad, and maybe it’ll change for the Better, or we catch a good break and a storm actually hits us with snow in a bad pattern…cuz they didn’t hit us in a good one. my thoughts exactly! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, alex said: Pretty nasty snow squall coming through That’s a good nasty. Like Janet Jackson kinda nasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well when the 11-15 looked about as good as it could…it either never materialized, or when it did, nothing has happened. So maybe we take our chances with the 11-15 looking bad, and maybe it’ll change for the Better, or we catch a good break and a storm actually hits us with snow in a bad pattern…cuz they didn’t hit us in a good one. Well it has to be cold enough to snow lol. That may not happen. I think into early January it does change a bit. We'll see, but it won't happen right away on 1/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Winter cancelled! 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Uncle Leo! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Somehow Leo got his weenie tag grandfathered in or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it has to be cold enough to snow lol. That may not happen. I think into early January it does change a bit. We'll see, but it won't happen right away on 1/1. More climo wiggle room...12/16 probably would have been alot more snow a month later for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it has to be cold enough to snow lol. That may not happen. I think into early January it does change a bit. We'll see, but it won't happen right away on 1/1. Lol….well we’ve had zero production from the good 11-15 day looks, it really can’t get any worse with the bad looks. So maybe the irony will keep working, and the Reverse will happen again, and we catch a break and the bad look actually spawns/produces something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol….well we’ve had zero production from the good 11-15 day looks, it really can’t get any worse with the bad looks. So maybe the irony will keep working, and the Reverse will happen again, and we catch a break and the bad look actually spawns/produces something? Anything's possible. I taught my dog to say I love you. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Anything's possible. I taught my dog to say I love you. See….nice work Ken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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