December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Whineminster]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It wasn't a good pattern. Just good enough for cold weather. 

I wonder what % of the time a good pattern actually produces? Seems like 10%.  And a poor pattern produces maybe 5%? 

I'd like to see the return rate on good vs bad pattern, probably not as big a difference as we think. 

[qg_omega]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

patterns don’t guarantee results. i would assume you’d know that with your infinite knowledge 

happy you crawled back out of your hole though. really need those extra five shit posts a day

No, no, no.  Your 10 to 15 day great pattern was a massive fail.  None of those posts were correct and you were quick to dismiss any opposition to your ideas.  Let’s not move the goal posts.  The current pattern is terrible for east coast snow and even cold.  We will be well above normal before the cutter and the cold is in and quick out after it.  

[masonwoods]

Is it funny and/or annoying when New Yorkers come into the New England forum to quarrel with each other?

[George001]

4 hours ago, White Rain said:

Let’s hope because its close the shades for awhile if not. Seems like the week between XMAS and New Years has been a shut out for awhile in SNE at least,  would be nice to break that pattern. 

It’s not looking great right now but just like how the models were wrong about the epic pattern, they could easily be wrong about the nasty +epo look. We track

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No, no, no.  Your 10 to 15 day great pattern was a massive fail.  None of those posts were correct and you were quick to dismiss any opposition to your ideas.  Let’s not move the goal posts.  The current pattern is terrible for east coast snow and even cold.  We will be well above normal before the cutter and the cold is in and quick out after it.  

You aren't a credible arbiter of pattern recognition though....

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No, no, no.  Your 10 to 15 day great pattern was a massive fail.  None of those posts were correct and you were quick to dismiss any opposition to your ideas.  Let’s not move the goal posts.  The current pattern is terrible for east coast snow and even cold.  We will be well above normal before the cutter and the cold is in and quick out after it.  

The pattern did look great in that range and others were talking about a great pattern. Don't just point him out. 

People were actually comparing the upcoming pattern to 2010.

The models failed

[Great Snow 1717]

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No, no, no.  Your 10 to 15 day great pattern was a massive fail.  None of those posts were correct and you were quick to dismiss any opposition to your ideas.  Let’s not move the goal posts.  The current pattern is terrible for east coast snow and even cold.  We will be well above normal before the cutter and the cold is in and quick out after it.  

Well written!!!

[Great Snow 1717]

57 minutes ago, Hoth said:

My lawn may never stop growing.

Same for my lawn..

 

[SJonesWX]

16 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

Is it funny and/or annoying when New Yorkers come into the New England forum to quarrel with each other?

100% annoying

[qg_omega]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You aren't a credible arbiter of pattern recognition though....

my posts in November nailed this pattern but ok

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, qg_omega said:

my posts in November always say the pattern sucks so I nail all crappy patterns and crappy outcomes

Agreed

[SouthCoastMA]

Haven't read it all yet, but way to pile on

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/12/new-england-less-snow-warmer-winter-climate-change/672480/

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

my posts in November nailed this pattern but ok

You only think the issue is here. It's not that some of your comments are incorrect, it's the way you handle your comments. I'm all for constructive criticism, but you tend to dig in to the point where you're supposed to become more sarcastic and provoking. I think that's why you tend to get a lot of comments to your posts that are agreeable.

All I would say is change your approach and your comments are just fine

 

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Haven't read it all yet, but way to pile on

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/12/new-england-less-snow-warmer-winter-climate-change/672480/

 

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Haven't read it all yet, but way to pile on

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/12/new-england-less-snow-warmer-winter-climate-change/672480/

Perfect timing!!! lol

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Haven't read it all yet, but way to pile on

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/12/new-england-less-snow-warmer-winter-climate-change/672480/

 

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

Perfect timing!!! lol

 

The result is that New England sees fewer snowstorms, and many of the ones that do still appear are harsher and more prolific than the historical average. “We’re seeing less of the little nickel-and-dime storms and more of the blockbuster storms,” says Judah Cohen, a Boston-based climatologist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. The winter season has also become wetter and more volatile. More precipitation descends as rain; the season whipsaws between hot and cold, interspersing freak blizzards with bizarre heat waves.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

The result is that New England sees fewer snowstorms, and many of the ones that do still appear are harsher and more prolific than the historical average. “We’re seeing less of the little nickel-and-dime storms and more of the blockbuster storms,” says Judah Cohen, a Boston-based climatologist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. The winter season has also become wetter and more volatile. More precipitation descends as rain; the season whipsaws between hot and cold, interspersing freak blizzards with bizarre heat waves.

I'm fine with that. I'll take a prolific blizzard mixed in with mild weather

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

The result is that New England sees fewer snowstorms, and many of the ones that do still appear are harsher and more prolific than the historical average. “We’re seeing less of the little nickel-and-dime storms and more of the blockbuster storms,” says Judah Cohen, a Boston-based climatologist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. The winter season has also become wetter and more volatile. More precipitation descends as rain; the season whipsaws between hot and cold, interspersing freak blizzards with bizarre heat waves.

I’m a little maxed out on the bizarre heat waves, when do we get some freak blizzard action?

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

The result is that New England sees fewer snowstorms, and many of the ones that do still appear are harsher and more prolific than the historical average. “We’re seeing less of the little nickel-and-dime storms and more of the blockbuster storms,” says Judah Cohen, a Boston-based climatologist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. The winter season has also become wetter and more volatile. More precipitation descends as rain; the season whipsaws between hot and cold, interspersing freak blizzards with bizarre heat waves.

The question is, how long that continues on for before even those diminish in frequency?

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m a little maxed out on the bizarre heat waves, when do we get some freak blizzard action?

Agree

[weathafella]

Climate change is real.  But to take a 10-20 year slice and point to cc is dishonest.   We’ve had periods like this before.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Climate change is real.  But to take a 10-20 year slice and point to cc is dishonest.   We’ve had periods like this before.

As warm?....

[CoastalWx]

I'm sure the people of SEA would love to hear about the CC arguments  

[ORH_wxman]

I ran the frequency of snow events by decade for ORH by size....and it's pretty noisy. The conclusion is that 12"+ def increasing, nickels are decreasing (but again very noisy) and moderate events slowly increasing.

The 1980s were a shit decade for all types of snow.....

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Hold your snowflakes more closely, they’re an endangered species. 

[WinterWolf]

All a bunch of crap!  When we’re all dead and gone and our kids too…it’ll still be snowing and doing everything it’s doing now, and has been doing.   
 

Folks worry about the dumbest shit. 

[EastonSN+]

[Lava Rock]

All a bunch of crap!  When we’re all dead and gone and our kids too…it’ll still be snowing and doing everything it’s doing now, and has been doing.   
 
Folks worry about the dumbest shit. 

Agree. NE will be covered in ice again someday. Climate " change" makes it sound permanent. Just another cycle in our lifetimes

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[EastonSN+]

https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As warm?....

It has warmed but the long wave pattern is what I’m talking about.  I mean the west is way below average.  Snow frequently the past 2 years in Seattle.  It has happened before on similar patterns.  To me the biggest effect of cc is the length of the cold season which seems shorter.

[cleetussnow]

At least its not cooling.  That would be nice…for awhile…then the environment will not be able to sustain 8 or 10 billion people.  It will cool eventually since we are in an inter glacial period as opposed to a post glacial period.  I think 10000 years is a good geological time frame to measure climate, certainly not 20.  10,000 years is 1/20th of human existance.  A lot happened climatology speaking in our frankly very brief 200,000 year history as a species.