FPizz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: patterns don’t guarantee results. i would assume you’d know that with your infinite knowledge happy you crawled back out of your hole though. really need those extra five shit posts a day Would you say that a good pattern actually materialized though? I don't think a good pattern got within 7 days. It was always a modeled good pattern that never fully came to be. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Put 100 Meteorologists in a room. Put this up on the big screen. 99 will say KU East Coast but alas... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I guess we'll be taking about the holiday and dinner cold temps ( and warm temps around the New Year ) and the HUGE middle of the country storm until after the New Year. Man am I disappointed in how things turned out this month. But.. looking forward to after the New Year with hopes we will see a nice pattern set up with a Snowy pattern for a good length of time. One could wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 37 minutes ago, FPizz said: Would you say that a good pattern actually materialized though? I don't think a good pattern got within 7 days. It was always a modeled good pattern that never fully came to be. Yes, this is/was a great pattern Just because results in the snow dept didn't pan out in ones backyard does not mean it was a crap pattern. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 That is a monster shut em down screamer around the New Year. Just horrible for ski country. Rains to Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 40 minutes ago, FPizz said: Would you say that a good pattern actually materialized though? I don't think a good pattern got within 7 days. It was always a modeled good pattern that never fully came to be. A good pattern never materialized. The same areas are cashing in ( great lakes) So much for the favorable NAO and AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yes, this is/was a great pattern Just because results in the snow dept didn't pan out in ones backyard does not mean it was a crap pattern. It wasn't a good pattern. Just good enough for cold weather. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 48 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Get a jump start on Spring cleaning. Could probably just still call it late autumn clean up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: That is a monster shut em down screamer around the New Year. Just horrible for ski country. Rains to Quebec I know, that’s why last night I was saying I might take a pass on going with my friend to the Winter Classic at Fenway. I would be homicidal if I had to sit in warm rain to watch a hockey game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A good pattern never materialized. The same areas are cashing in ( great lakes) So much for the favorable NAO and AO Overrated as usual. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: That is a monster shut em down screamer around the New Year. Just horrible for ski country. Rains to Quebec The way our luck has been going, anything is possible. But, like the pre Christmas Storm.... That showed up last Wednesday on most models as a large snowstorm for the East Coast, only to transition over Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to what will now be a large Snow event for the Chicago area. So, I would pump the brakes on an all out Rainer for New Years. Things can change at this point in time ( lord please ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The closest to normal that I have been since 2017-2018 is 51", which is still at least 10" below normal. The only thing I can say for this period is that I have avoided a true, epic ratter, since I got that big event in December of 2019 that some of the area had precip type issues in....so while I haven't had a brutally awful season, its been death by a thousand paper cuts because they have all been subpar and frustrating. Its bee four consecutive years between about 44 and 51"...rinse, repeat Groundhog day. The December 1-3, 2019 event is my largest snow of the last four years at 17". Nice start that went on to a sub-par winter overall. The January-Feb period that season was pretty pathetic but the other recent years haven't been too bad. Definitely 80's sized events overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The 80s had some cold spells too. This is just mediocre winter BS stuff really. At least we do summers well now lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Put 100 Meteorologists in a room. Put this up on the big screen. 99 will say KU East Coast but alas... That looks too wrapped up that far west to be a KU....ULL nuclear over Detroit isn't great. On a hemispheric scale, you can see though how close we were to a great look. The longwave pattern there is excellent....but there are never any guarantees to success in favorable longwave patterns. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 That’s a perfect example of how something looking good from afar can often mask the nuances. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Ski country looks to get decimated over the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Overrated as usual. Exactly -Epo and +PNA please Two December's in a row that the NAO failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That looks too wrapped up that far west to be a KU....ULL nuclear over Detroit isn't great. On a hemispheric scale, you can see though how close we were to a great look. The longwave pattern there is excellent....but there are never any guarantees to success in favorable longwave patterns. I remember I initially had reservations last week bc of the position of the ULL in se Canada on the ensemble means, but I allowed myself to by into some of the pretty OP head fakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Put 100 Meteorologists in a room. Put this up on the big screen. 99 will say KU East Coast but alas... That ridge near New England is no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That ridge near New England is no good. No 50/50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 When we need it the most, the shit streak nowhere to be found except our undies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 This is what you want for a KU along the East Coast. Pattern now looks far from that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ski country looks to get decimated over the next few weeks. I’m hoping things play out differently the week after Christmas as they are currently models. It’s one thing to have your natural snow wiped out but if your man-made base gets decimated it’s a whole other level of suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: This is what you want for a KU along the East Coast. Pattern now looks far from that. Several of the top NESIS storms missed us or just gave us a glancing blow. That looks idealized for the Mid-Atlantic. That looks pretty suppressive for New England as a whole....maybe not bad for far southern areas. When I redo the composite for top snowfalls at ORH, it def looks a little different. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: This is what you want for a KU along the East Coast. Pattern now looks far from that. A lot of KUs are FUs up here. So no thanks. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 That's also a composite of all months....December is going to look different because wavelengths are a bit different....I'll see what the top December snowfall composite looks like 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Surprised though both have BN heights in the east pacific along the WC and into AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Here's ORH top December snowfalls.....the Hudson Bay block is pretty consistent across most months. It's one reason I really liked the 12/16 look at one point when it was pushing the whole ULL under us with the big Hudson Block in place. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Get a jump start on Spring cleaning. My lawn may never stop growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 smaller hemispheric cold pool = less of a PV to get trapped under blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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