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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

patterns don’t guarantee results. i would assume you’d know that with your infinite knowledge 

happy you crawled back out of your hole though. really need those extra five shit posts a day

Would you say that a good pattern actually materialized though?  I don't think a good pattern got within 7 days.  It was always a modeled good pattern that never fully came to be.

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I guess we'll be taking about the holiday and dinner cold temps ( and warm temps around the New Year ) and the HUGE middle of the country storm until after the New Year. 

Man am I disappointed in how things turned out this month. But.. looking forward to after the New Year with hopes we will see a nice pattern set up with a Snowy pattern for a good length of time. 

One could wish. 

 

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37 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Would you say that a good pattern actually materialized though?  I don't think a good pattern got within 7 days.  It was always a modeled good pattern that never fully came to be.

Yes, this is/was a great pattern  Just because results in the snow dept didn't pan out in ones backyard does not mean it was a crap pattern.

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40 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Would you say that a good pattern actually materialized though?  I don't think a good pattern got within 7 days.  It was always a modeled good pattern that never fully came to be.

A good pattern never materialized. The same areas are cashing in ( great lakes)

So much for the favorable NAO and AO

 

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6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

That is a monster shut em down screamer around the New Year. Just horrible for ski country. Rains to Quebec 

I know, that’s why last night I was saying I might take a pass on going with my friend to the Winter Classic at Fenway.   I would be homicidal if I had to sit in warm rain to watch a hockey game.

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8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

That is a monster shut em down screamer around the New Year. Just horrible for ski country. Rains to Quebec 

The way our luck has been going, anything is possible. But, like the pre Christmas Storm.... That showed up last Wednesday on most models as a large snowstorm for the East Coast, only to transition over Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to what will now be a large Snow event for the Chicago area.

So, I would pump the brakes on an all out Rainer for New Years. Things can change at this point in time ( lord please )

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The closest to normal that I have been since 2017-2018 is 51", which is still at least 10" below normal. The only thing I can say for this period is that I have avoided a true, epic ratter, since I got that big event in December of 2019 that some of the area had precip type issues in....so while I haven't had a brutally awful season, its been death by a thousand paper cuts because they have all been subpar and frustrating.

Its bee four consecutive years between about 44 and 51"...rinse, repeat Groundhog day.

The December 1-3, 2019 event is my largest snow of the last four years at 17". Nice start that went on to a sub-par winter overall. The January-Feb period that season was pretty pathetic but the other recent years haven't been too bad. Definitely 80's sized events overall.

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49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Put 100 Meteorologists in a room. Put this up on the big screen. 99 will say KU East Coast but alas...

index (5).png

That looks too wrapped up that far west to be a KU....ULL nuclear over Detroit isn't great. On a hemispheric scale, you can see though how close we were to a great look. The longwave pattern there is excellent....but there are never any guarantees to success in favorable longwave patterns.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That looks too wrapped up that far west to be a KU....ULL nuclear over Detroit isn't great. On a hemispheric scale, you can see though how close we were to a great look. The longwave pattern there is excellent....but there are never any guarantees to success in favorable longwave patterns.

I remember I initially had reservations last week bc of the position of the ULL in se Canada on the ensemble means, but I allowed myself to by into some of the pretty OP head fakes.

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30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ski country looks to get decimated over the next few weeks.

I’m hoping things play out differently the week after Christmas as they are currently models.

It’s one thing to have your natural snow wiped out but if your man-made base gets decimated it’s a whole other level of suck.

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14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is what you want for a KU along the East Coast.  Pattern now looks far from that. 

58C687A1-5AD1-45B4-8099-7B5028A51F8E.jpeg

Several of the top NESIS storms missed us or just gave us a glancing blow. That looks idealized for the Mid-Atlantic. That looks pretty suppressive for New England as a whole....maybe not bad for far southern areas. When I redo the composite for top snowfalls at ORH, it def looks a little different.

 

 

ORH_snowfallcomposite.gif

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