December 2022 Obs/Disc

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Firing up the Corsica 

Now there's a fine one..the Corsicrap, brother to the Crapiece Classless

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

With blocking that severe the ceiling for this December is very high, as in 20+ inches of snow for the month in most of SNE. That is a lot, but it only takes one storm to reach those amounts with this severe North Atlantic blocking pattern. Instead of getting 12 hour storms with a positive NAO in this pattern due to the blocked flow the low isn’t going anywhere, so we would get 24 hour storms instead, possibly longer. With the warm ssts offshore I’m thinking a March 2018 redux, where the NW areas get clobbered with the first storm or 2. Then mid to late month when the cold air is more established (there are signs of a polar vortex displacement event on the models, despite no SSW), the clash between the northern airmass and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean SSTs leads to any area of low pressure forced to redevelop offshore due to the blocking to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it comes up the coast, deepening into the 960s. On top of this, we have the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to the volcanic activity last year, this increase in water vapor will lead to truly obscene QPF totals. 

 

James would be proud of his brother from another mother.

[Damage In Tolland]

He trolls 

 

[mreaves]

Me and @dryslotafter seeing the magnitude of the block 

[Go Kart Mozart]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

James would be proud of his brother from another mother.

The funny thing...the board absolutely needs a James/George character.  The unbridled enthusiasm is great....like your puppy greeting you when you get home from work.

[Go Kart Mozart]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He trolls 

 

I've gotta raise the bullshit flag on that statement.  I suspect that November snow has always been rare, so much so that no trend can be discerned.

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Me and @dryslotafter seeing the magnitude of the block 

Is that Ray and Scooter?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I've gotta raise the bullshit flag on that statement.  I suspect that November snow has always been rare, so much so that no trend can be discerned.

Hard to say…rarer if you start 40 or 50 years ago as your baseline. There were a bunch of snowy Novembers in the 1980s…ironic considering the winters were mostly shit for snow. 
 

But really prior to the 1970s isn’t impressive. 
 

2” or more Novembers in BOS by decade:

2010s: 1

2000s: 2

1990s: 2

1980s: 5

1970s: 3

1960s: 1

1950s: 1

1940s: 2

1930s: 3

1920s: 1

1910s: 1

1900s: 0

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to say…rarer if you start 40 or 50 years ago as your baseline. There were a bunch of snowy Novembers in the 1980s…ironic considering the winters were mostly shit for snow. 
 

But really prior to the 1970s isn’t impressive. 
 

2” or more Novembers in BOS by decade:

2010s: 1

2000s: 2

1990s: 2

1980s: 5

1970s: 3

1960s: 1

1950s: 1

1940s: 2

1930s: 3

1920s: 1

1910s: 1

1900s: 0

 

Will . That Ensembles look. Just put up a patience Grasshoppers alert. The term used in Jan 11 when Scooter was crying about sledding on mud.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Will . That Ensembles look. Just put up a patience Grasshoppers alert. The term used in Jan 11 when Scooter was crying about sledding on mud.

That was Jan 2015….but same point nonetheless. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was Jan 2015….but same point nonetheless. 

Oh yea it was Kev in 2011. Nickles and dimes winter.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh yea it was Kev in 2011. Nickles and dimes winter.

He said that in 2014-15 also...lol.

[radarman]

December 2010 was uber painful here with a big snowstorm in Boston on the 18th IIRC and a Mt Rushmore bust locally on Boxing Day.  But the same patience grasshopper advice would have applied because Jan and Feb were wonderful.

Edit- seemed like the big snow was the 20th in SEMA not Bos

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, radarman said:

December 2010 was uber painful here with a big snowstorm in Boston on the 18th IIRC and a Mt Rushmore bust locally on Boxing Day.  But the same patience grasshopper advice would have applied because Jan and Feb were wonderful.

Edit- seemed like the big snow was the 20th in SEMA not Bos

Retro storm that crushed the Cape. They had over a foot in some spots there. It was an otherwise frustrating winter on the Cape but they got smoked in that one. 
 

It did snow like 2-3” though around BOS. We even had a couple inches back in ORH which gave us a White Christmas. 

[MJO812]

18z gefs

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

December 2010 was uber painful here with a big snowstorm in Boston on the 18th IIRC and a Mt Rushmore bust locally on Boxing Day.  But the same patience grasshopper advice would have applied because Jan and Feb were wonderful.

Edit- seemed like the big snow was the 20th in SEMA not Bos

I was just in an unlucky spot for the Boxing day storm, overall it wasn't a bad storm. I'd take my chances with another one like it.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

He said that in 2014-15 also...lol.

Yup. lol. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I was just in an unlucky spot for the Boxing day storm, overall it wasn't a bad storm. I'd take my chances with another one like it.

It Crushed northern NJ and NYC.  A lot of wind here with A Blizzard warning and 10-12 inches of arctic sand.  A disappointment compared to what was forecast though.  But then after New Years in Jan 11 it went gang busters. 

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z gefs

Whoa.

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He trolls 

 

What a foolish statement that is by that silly guy. 

[CoastalWx]

My comment was Steve ushering his grandkids into the ER in 2” of slush while smiling. That was 2015. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I've gotta raise the bullshit flag on that statement.  I suspect that November snow has always been rare, so much so that no trend can be discerned.

Kind of dumb comparing a place that’s inland  to a coastal place where a few things need to come together lol. It’s a fringe month. Lots of things can happen in a short time span. 

[CoastalWx]

Also should be 2018 but *

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully things pan out. We’ll see…need more than just a “good look”. I’m still waiting for the solid snows from the good look patterns from 2 winters ago. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully things pan out. We’ll see…need more than just a “good look”. I’m still waiting for the solid snows from the good look patterns from 2 winters ago. 

Hey even in meh winters we had some stretches. Feb 2021 was decent. Early Jan through late Feb 2022 was good too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Retro storm that crushed the Cape. They had over a foot in some spots there. It was an otherwise frustrating winter on the Cape but they got smoked in that one. 
 

It did snow like 2-3” though around BOS. We even had a couple inches back in ORH which gave us a White Christmas. 

I’m pretty sure that was the last white Christmas we had here locally. So it’s been 12 years. I’d say we are due here, even with not so great white Christmas averages 

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey even in meh winters we had some stretches. Feb 2021 was decent. Early Jan through late Feb 2022 was good too.

Right. I was saying yesterday looking back at the awful recent years I had a good storm each year. 

[George001]

I like how the pattern advertised on the models isn’t a suppression look like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016, it’s more like Dec 2010 or Mar 2018. If the blocking does get as strong as the models are saying that dreaded La Nina will help make sure we get clobbered instead of DC/Philly.

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey even in meh winters we had some stretches. Feb 2021 was decent. Early Jan through late Feb 2022 was good too.

That is true. Sometimes it’s more about getting pieces to align as opposed to the pattern itself. I think this winter is going to be even more complex than the last few. The global pattern is quite chaotic. I think it’s going to be difficult to put much stock into D7-10+ progs…even if there is model agreement. 

[CoastalWx]

2012 had like a half inch and 2017 (albeit not at 7am) had almost 3”, but yeah sort of due I suppose.