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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What I mean is that this has been RNA, but not record levels like last year...I expected some front end/SWFE type stuff despite the RNA, but it hasn't worked out for the coast and some spots just inland. But a PNA would have allowed the cold to dump further east. Is that really that complicated?

Well yeah a better PNA makes any winter better. What’s the relevance? 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter wild wolf disappeared days ago . That tells you all you need to know. Listen closely and the pitter patter of rats claws congregating enmasse can be heard on hardwood floors throughout the region.  Are they released to pounce or are they caught by the winter exterminator. We should know by Jan 1

He's in training. He's busting out so many push-ups pull-ups etc he can't post here. It's cuffing season. Him and cpickles

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter wild wolf disappeared days ago . That tells you all you need to know. Listen closely and the pitter patter of rats claws congregating enmasse can be heard on hardwood floors throughout the region.  Are they released to pounce or are they caught by the winter exterminator. We should know by Jan 1

If Will checks out for a while then you really know……

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On average, one of our better patterns is -NAO/RNA, but I think the PV sliding out west as porked us. I don't think that that would have happened in a positive PNA month...or less likely, anyway.

I see. Sounds like more bad luck then. 

I gotta check raindancewx again. He might be on the money again though I'm pretty sure he had a warm December 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

January is a concern.

Agreed. The rest of this month and the first two weeks now as modeled are lost. So we lost all of December other than a light snowfall in SNE and one biggie in CNE and NNE and first half of Jan . I am just struggling trying to see any good coming out of the next month. Maybe some rogue event pops up timed right.. but as of now.. this is as ugly as we have seen in quite some time 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I see. Sounds like more bad luck then. 

I gotta check raindancewx again. He might be on the money again though I'm pretty sure he had a warm December 

That the coast has been totally shut out, yes.

At the end of the day, there is always some hedging and glorified guess work at play with issuing these outlooks. Even if you get the pattern right, there is always some educated guess work about how it all plays out.

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Because RNA increases the changes of an interior pattern, even though the upside is high if things break right. This month they haven't.

And I agree, I never bought into a block buster. But I think generalizing your outlook to explain why it’s sucked in many areas….there’s just more to it. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

And I agree, I never bought into a block buster. But I think generalizing your outlook to explain why it’s sucked in many areas….there’s just more to it. 

Of course there is more to it....the crap like the ridge being displaced to the west is luck. I didn't predict that. But its not luck that the cold has been out west and the interior has done better.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agreed. The rest of this month and the first two weeks now as modeled are lost. So we lost all of December other than a light snowfall in SNE and one biggie in CNE and NNE and first half of Jan . I am just struggling trying to see any good coming out of the next month. Maybe some rogue event pops up timed right.. but as of now.. this is as ugly as we have seen in quite some time 

Where are the first two weeks modeled?

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let’s say ORH and Methuen get 2” from now to end of year. Hypothetically speaking. I don’t think many outlooks had that part of the interior so stinky for snow. This is what I mean. 

You can't get that specific...no one does. That is fluky shit ORH through my area has been porked. But I have generally had the pattern right, which is all I hope for.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can't get that specific...no one does. That is fluky shit ORH through my area has been porked. But I have generally had the pattern right, which is all I hope for.

So I got the impression you were more hopeful for interior SNE. I’m well aware of nuances. But I took your outlook as more favorable for interior SNE. Am I the only one?

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a sick , awful , terrible gut feeling about this winter. I hope you guys are right 

Well the only good thing about that statement is that it’s not winter yet and the models have no idea what will happen more than 7 days out so we have that going for us. 

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I see. Sounds like more bad luck then. 

I gotta check raindancewx again. He might be on the money again though I'm pretty sure he had a warm December 

He had a +NAO December, so there is that...glad that I didn't copy him, like he accused me of.

Otherwise, he has had the right idea....we were both RNA December.

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