mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Right, but to flush it and reset, it’s going to take time. I’m gonna go with Scott’s thinking on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Right, but to flush it and reset, it’s going to take time. It’s not a crazy adjustment near peak climo though. Obvious interior can work with it in a quicker sense, but I don’t think it will take weeks to reset. Hell it only takes a few days to move in. But to reset and then wait for chances is entirely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: New Historical site for records @dendrite @ORH_wxman https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/ Great stuff, thanks for sharing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Is there an emoji of old man winter getting kicked in the balls 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 All the teleconnections were good and December was still shit. I'm not feeling very confident based on what ensembles show. Either way it'll be another several weeks of waiting If things don't start improving by mid Jan then a ratter becomes very likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: All the teleconnections were good and December was still shit. I'm not feeling very confident based on what ensembles show. Either way it'll be another several weeks of waiting If things don't start improving by mid Jan then a ratter becomes very likely Strengthening pv, jet extension and mjo torch phases… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Strengthening pv, jet extension and mjo torch phases… A complete overhaul of the ENSO state is a must. These Ninas are a no-go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Goofus with a week straight of 850s above 0C in SNE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It's time to light the voodoo candle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Goofus with a week straight of 850s above 0C in SNE Should I start my grass seed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Strengthening pv, jet extension and mjo torch phases… ECMWF has MJO entering 7 then 8 after the 23rd. Whatever that's worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not a crazy adjustment near peak climo though. Obvious interior can work with it in a quicker sense, but I don’t think it will take weeks to reset. Hell it only takes a few days to move in. But to reset and then wait for chances is entirely different. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not really a permanent feature. I said last month that it would show up at times, but it won't be a staple of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said last month that it would show up at times, but it won't be a staple of the season. Hope January as you said "will rock"........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Euro looks interesting after the cutter. A storm chance ? Blocking continues 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: A complete overhaul of the ENSO state is a must. These Ninas are a no-go Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I came from the tip storm thread to get some analysis. It’s there but a lot of poor me in between. I understand the frustration but we need to move on. A reshuffling could be beneficial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 1:49 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya pattern looks horrendous after Christmas with pacific warmth flooding the US. Woof - this is worse than those years when it was 60-70 in December bc there wasn’t any expectation. This is to be has to be up there with the worst weather December we’ve had. Teased with tons of potential for one 1-5” Light snow event that melted within a week in SNE. 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Close them tight. Another terrible December. December is no longer a winter month until further notice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Seems like the winters on the east coast are getting milder and less snowy and the west coast is getting colder and more snow. Anyway sitting at 0.4cms ytd snowfall. Worst start ever here. Should be at about 10 inches by now. Not insurmountable but a big hole to climb out of out of the gate. Maybe 2015 style comeback is on tap. One can dream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Sorry, I know the "scorched earth" policy that is invoked out of anger from a pattern gone wrong causes everyone to cry about all of the forecasts being shit, but I am happy about this just a bit beyond the halfway point of the month. The risks and the fact that it would not be an epic month for our area was well outlined. Balance of November-December 2022 Outlook December Analogs: 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1984,1992, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2016 The ongoing transition to a colder pattern after a very mild start to the month is due to a progression of the MJO passage into phase 8. MJO Phase 8 November However, forcing, denoted in the graphic below by upward ascent within the encircled region, has been prevalent at around 120E longitude due to baseline cool ENSO forcing. Forcing in this position is redolent of the milder modoki la nina composite: But, passage of the MJO wave through phase 8 means that it is deconstructively interfering with said baseline la nina forcing, more redolent of east-based la nina forcing. East-Based La Nina Forcing However, it is forecast to begin once again constructively interfering around phase 5 later this month and into early December. This a very mild pattern for the northeast that is generally consistent with the previously referenced baseline forcing. Thus the month of November should again end fairly mild and December begin in like fashion. However, there are signs noted by Dr. Judah Cohen that both the Snow Advance Index SAI and the development of Ural-Scandinavian ridging may aid in future polar vortex disruption over the course of the month of December, which would be consistent with the forecast expectation of some blocking to materialize early in the season. However, an official Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is unlikely given unimpressive SAI and SSWs being relatively rare during the RNA style extra tropical Pacific regime expected this season Regardless, the month should not end up as mild as it could otherwise due to the tendency for Canada to remain cold, a la the aforementioned 1973, 1975 and 2007 dataset, which will ensure chances for wintery weather during the month across the north, despite the fact that it will not be a frigid month. The month will gradually turn colder as the high latitudes become more disturbed, and while the mid Atlantic may find snowfall scarce, New England should not...especially north and interior. However, coastal areas/lower terrain may have frequent precip type issues during coastal storms due warm SSTs. Some elevation events are certainly possible. There will also be southwest flow events/warm air advection events, which will be more fruitful for the coast in terms of snow. A white Christmas is likely across the interior and northern New England, and possible along coastal southern New England. It is very unlikely for at least the lower terrain of the mid Atlatnic. December Forecast H5 Composite: December 2022 Forecast Temps: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I dunno, this pattern looked good two weeks out and nuances just made us have a terrible month. I don’t think anyone expected that, especially inland. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno, this pattern looked good two weeks out and nuances just made us have a terrible month. I don’t think anyone expected that, especially inland. In the medium range, no, but my monthly call in the aggregate is pretty spot on to this point. I called for a neg NAO with most of the snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well that’s obviously a negative PNA. It’s really no wonder December turned out to be awful up and down the EC. Only reason it wasn’t a torch is that -AO/NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just wondering, what should ocean temperatures be at this time of the year? Are we really that warm say compared to last year this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Well that’s obviously a negative PNA. It’s really no wonder December turned out to be awful up and down the EC. Only reason it wasn’t a torch is that -AO/NAO. Yup. RNA is the reason that I didn't go big this month. But if it ends up as awful as last December, then that is bad luck. I agree that I didn't expect it to be that bad snowfallwise near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup. RNA is the reason that I didn't go big this month. But if it ends up as awful as last December, then that is bad luck. I agree that I didn't expect it to be that bad snowfallwise near the coast. Do you do snowfall by month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The word of the month is nuances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The word of the month is nuances In November it was reload this month it’s nuances. Wonder what’s next in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In November it was reload this month it’s nuances. Wonder what’s next in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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