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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right, but to flush it and reset, it’s going to take time.

It’s not a crazy adjustment near peak climo though. Obvious interior can work with it in a quicker sense, but I don’t think it will take weeks to reset. Hell it only takes a few days to move in.  But to reset and then wait for chances is entirely different.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

All the teleconnections were good and December was still shit. 

I'm not feeling very confident based on what ensembles show. Either way it'll be another several weeks of waiting

If things don't start improving by mid Jan then a ratter becomes very likely 

Strengthening pv, jet extension and mjo torch phases…

 

 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not a crazy adjustment near peak climo though. Obvious interior can work with it in a quicker sense, but I don’t think it will take weeks to reset. Hell it only takes a few days to move in.  But to reset and then wait for chances is entirely different.

Agree. 

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On 12/17/2022 at 1:49 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya pattern looks horrendous after Christmas with pacific warmth flooding the US. Woof - this is worse than those years when it was 60-70 in December bc there wasn’t any expectation. This is to be has to be up there with the worst weather December we’ve had. Teased with tons of potential for one 1-5” Light snow event that melted within a week in SNE. 

 

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Close them tight. Another terrible December. 

December is no longer a winter month until further notice. 

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Seems like the winters on the east coast are getting milder and less snowy and the west coast is getting colder and more snow. Anyway sitting at 0.4cms ytd snowfall. Worst start ever here. Should be at about 10 inches by now. Not insurmountable but a big hole to climb out of out of the gate. Maybe 2015 style comeback is on tap. One can dream.

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Sorry, I know the "scorched earth" policy that is invoked out of anger from a pattern gone wrong causes everyone to cry about all of the forecasts being shit, but I am happy about this just a bit beyond the halfway point of the month.

The risks and the fact that it would not be an epic month for our area was well outlined.

Balance of November-December 2022 Outlook

December Analogs: 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1984,1992, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2016 
The ongoing transition to a colder pattern after a very mild start to the month is due to a progression of the MJO passage into phase 8.
 
AVvXsEg3x2I14-H7-hVUeWh6F1RWhCKGHJkZoJq4
AVvXsEg8lQ4uJC7LZ1OHAVrepS9BR7Z_gwDVhzfW
MJO Phase 8 November
AVvXsEjAf7ulBufEVoatofmwsTd6VN4CCxMnzcdk
However, forcing, denoted in the graphic below by upward ascent within the encircled region, has been prevalent at around 120E longitude due to baseline cool ENSO forcing.
 
AVvXsEgs3AyQ8pm4l6awik_2waazxOAUejThR3nb
 
Forcing in this position is redolent of the milder modoki la nina composite:
 
AVvXsEgX0xFYvhr66wt0RS2wAW1xTTv7fRsTCh6f
 
But, passage of the MJO wave through phase 8 means that it is deconstructively interfering with said baseline la nina forcing, more redolent of east-based la nina forcing.
 
AVvXsEj-hCt24hfwELaVYa4oGN9m9WUxpp55-1pA
East-Based La Nina Forcing
 
 
 However, it is forecast to begin once again constructively interfering around phase 5 later this month and into early December.
 
AVvXsEj6vdoJxbBcgxdkwf-iY012wP9qEpdui1EV

This a very mild pattern for the northeast that is generally consistent with the previously referenced baseline forcing.
 
AVvXsEiD9qxV7tTDsiI5OjFkyXGNX36IEs0PYTm2

Thus the month of November should again end fairly mild and December begin in like fashion.
However, there are signs noted by Dr. Judah Cohen that both the Snow Advance Index SAI and the development of Ural-Scandinavian ridging may aid in future polar vortex disruption over the course of the month of December, which would be consistent with the forecast expectation of some blocking to materialize early in the season. However, an official Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is unlikely given unimpressive SAI and SSWs being relatively rare during the RNA style extra tropical Pacific regime expected this season 
 
AVvXsEjSdv_PEG9u6NATTmpnZzo6NFyS86OUwfCP
Regardless, the month should not end up as mild as it could otherwise due to the tendency for Canada to remain cold, a la the aforementioned 1973, 1975 and 2007 dataset, which will ensure chances for wintery weather during the month across the north, despite the fact that it will not be a frigid month. The month will gradually turn colder as the high latitudes become more disturbed, and while the mid Atlantic may find snowfall scarce, New England should not...especially north and interior. However, coastal areas/lower terrain may have frequent precip type issues during coastal storms due warm SSTs. Some elevation events are certainly possible. There will also be southwest flow events/warm air advection events, which will be more fruitful for the coast in terms of snow. A white Christmas is likely across the interior and northern New England, and possible along coastal southern New England. It is very unlikely for at least the lower terrain of the mid Atlatnic.
 
December Forecast H5 Composite:
 
AVvXsEjJ9AvFHOufuLHOlwOQLkGxNYH_a7Bm4-o4

December 2022 Forecast Temps:
1951-2010:
AVvXsEjFQ0wqxMvgSrTQXLDFij9VTG-hQ723m2z1

1991-2020:
AVvXsEjUaumNk0OAYgQGJKod4iHs10J9KyDAM9BL
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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno, this pattern looked good two weeks out and nuances just made us have a terrible month. I don’t think anyone expected that, especially  inland. 

In the medium range, no, but my monthly call in the aggregate is pretty spot on to this point. I called for a neg NAO with most of the snow inland. 

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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well that’s obviously a negative PNA. It’s really no wonder December turned out to be awful up and down the EC. Only reason it wasn’t a torch is that -AO/NAO.

Yup. RNA is the reason that I didn't go big this month. But if it ends up as awful as last December, then that is bad luck. I agree that I didn't expect it to be that bad snowfallwise near the coast. 

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