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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

I'm always amazed how cutters can be locked in several days in advance.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

I know what you mean.  Cutters can be shown at d8 and rarely not verify.  But how many times have we seen a big hit even 3-4 days out turn into a whiff or meh?

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With that look, we may have to close some shades until at least the middle of January. At least the heating bills won't be so bad during the coldest time of the year...Hoping the ensembles are wrong, but who knows. We couldn't snow in SNE with a good look, maybe we will get lucky in a not so good look?

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern would prob get pretty good if that low retrogrades to Aleutians like guidance is showing near the end. That’s an El Niño look…so for those wanting to flush La Niña, that’s what you should be rooting for. 

The GEPS is the best obviously while the GEFS is the worst, largely because it seems it does not want to go +PNA whereas even the EPS does...the good news may be that the GEFS denied the +PNA fairly strongly we are currently headed into 10-15 days ago while the GEPS/EPS did not so perhaps its wrong again

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you can see the low retrograde a bit into early January. That would be a change to what we have now. More of a +PNA. We would need Canada to cool a bit first. 

I don’t want to be a alarmist but it could take 2-3 weeks to reset all of that…

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you can see the low retrograde a bit into early January. That would be a change to what we have now. More of a +PNA. We would need Canada to cool a bit first. 

The question is does Canada really torch as fast as the ensembles show...it seems remarkable to me that we are torched by 12/29, usually it takes time when things go to crap for it to effectively muck up things downstream this far...I would not be surprised if the anomalies D10-12 end up cooler than currently shown, albeit above normal as the vortex does not really begin flooding Canada til 12/25

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you can see the low retrograde a bit into early January. That would be a change to what we have now. More of a +PNA. We would need Canada to cool a bit first. 

Homebrew cold climo isn’t bad at least in early January. So even if Canada isn’t frigid I’d still take our chances in +PNA if we can get any sort of amplitude on that ridge. Further south you go, obviously it becomes more perilous. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Homebrew cold climo isn’t bad at least in early January. So even if Canada isn’t frigid I’d still take our chances in +PNA if we can get any sort of amplitude on that ridge. Further south you go, obviously it becomes more perilous. 

Yeah it works….I meant just the overall look. Should the EPS be right, it eventually shakes things up and cools the east. 

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