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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Do you think there's any way for January to be a snowless torch 

I would be suprised, but could I be wrong? Of course...and I'll be wrong again. But I am relatively confident that that will not be the case. That said, expect a very mild period during January...I am also confident of that. It should be a very dynamic month with drastic changes.

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3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I was somewhat excited for December, and it's been a good month for interior, but shit the bed locally and much of SNE. Snowfall-wise.  Very fickle to forecast months in advance. Temp forecast on point though

I never thought the medium range would fail this spectacularly, though...not trying to imply that.

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Speaking of that long term care insurance, I heard the premiums have been skyrocketing

My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down.   I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it.  Not yet though.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down.   I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it.  Not yet though.

 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down.   I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it.  Not yet though.

 

Just now, weathafella said:

My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down.   I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it.  Not yet though.

What was your original plan, again?

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never thought the medium range would fail this spectacularly, though...not trying to imply that.

Yeah. This was some shit luck with nuances for sure. The only thing you could argue was last Sunday, but that was for a relatively small area geographically. 
 

I will say within about 10 days Scooter caution flags did start to show up. Sure I suppose you could argue they always do, but when those ridges fold over AK like a floppy boob and push troughing into the Gulf of Alaska from the east, never a good sign. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. This was some shit luck with nuances for sure. The only thing you could argue was last Sunday, but that was for a relatively small area geographically. 
 

I will say within about 10 days Scooter caution flags did start to show up. Sure I suppose you could argue they always do, but when those ridges fold over AK like a floppy boob and push troughing into the Gulf of Alaska from the east, never a good sign. 

Where do you think the pattern goes from Christmas to the end of the year? 

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9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'm always amazed how cutters can be locked in several days in advance.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

We’ve been through this before. Getting a 50-100 mile Snow shield is harder than a low going from ALB to Detroit with basically the same outcome. Torch. The effects of a low whether it’s in Albany or Detroit are the same. 

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We’ve been through this before. Getting a 50-100 mile Snow shield is harder than a low going from ALB to Detroit with basically the same outcome. Torch. The effects of a low whether it’s in Albany or Detroit are the same. 
Yeah, understood. Sucks just the same. Nothing pisses me off more in winter when we have snow otg then it gets washed away.

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Have to say one of the biggest disappointments if it works out this way. Nuances like a couple degrees in the BL prevented a 2 footer on the coast. LP was exactly where we thought it would develop just too much taint. Next week was supposed to be the coup de grace in my mind way back in November. But alas this is a humbling game and has been forever. The trolls came out of the wood shed today but expected. They don't contribute just Monday Morning QB. Still an epic CNNE event none the less. Coastal plain aside pretty special storm.

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Still holding on to my "forecast": Dec 3-5 AN; Jan 1-3 AN; Feb 5+AN; March 0-2 BN with near-normal snowfall despite the temps. The last is really a crap shoot under any circumstances. A couple of good storms in a cold spell in January & March will do it for many. Least certain about the February torch. My Farmers Almanac approach is based on bad memories from the 70's and 80's plus AGT (Anthropogenic Torching)

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Sorry, call me an optimist but this is all I can think in my head after reading this forum the last few days:

Maybe Winter 22-23 will turn out to be a turd, but we have had several good to great winters that started with shitty Decembers and grinch storms right before Christmas. Can’t give up on things less than a third of the way through.

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. This was some shit luck with nuances for sure. The only thing you could argue was last Sunday, but that was for a relatively small area geographically. 
 

I will say within about 10 days Scooter caution flags did start to show up. Sure I suppose you could argue they always do, but when those ridges fold over AK like a floppy boob and push troughing into the Gulf of Alaska from the east, never a good sign. 

I never liked the look of the ULL in se Canada, but I tricked myself into getting excited.

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