SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: January will rock. Mark my words. I was always tepid on December. Do you think there's any way for January to be a snowless torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I was somewhat excited for December, and it's been a good month for interior, but shit the bed locally and much of SNE. Snowfall-wise. Very fickle to forecast months in advance. Temp forecast on point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Do you think there's any way for January to be a snowless torch I would be suprised, but could I be wrong? Of course...and I'll be wrong again. But I am relatively confident that that will not be the case. That said, expect a very mild period during January...I am also confident of that. It should be a very dynamic month with drastic changes. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I was somewhat excited for December, and it's been a good month for interior, but shit the bed locally and much of SNE. Snowfall-wise. Very fickle to forecast months in advance. Temp forecast on point though I never thought the medium range would fail this spectacularly, though...not trying to imply that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Speaking of that long term care insurance, I heard the premiums have been skyrocketing My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down. I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it. Not yet though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We lost the PV giving us a visit. So instead of arctic hounds later this week it’s just seasonable chilly weather prior to the cutter. Beautiful Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down. I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it. Not yet though. 1 minute ago, weathafella said: My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down. I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it. Not yet though. Just now, weathafella said: My original plan to pay out for 5 years had to be changed to 2 years to keep costs down. I have a history of lots of dementia on my mother’s side but as I age without any signs I’m already eyeing dropping it. Not yet though. What was your original plan, again? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: January will rock. Mark my words. I was always tepid on December. I've never weenied you, Ray. But in the absolutely suckiest Nov/Dec combo I can recall, I can't not do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I've never weenied you, Ray. But in the absolutely suckiest Nov/Dec combo I can recall, I can't not do so. I had one of the more benign December depictions around TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had one of the more benign December depictions around TBH. No doubt on that......you're write-up could still largely play out. But this December has just sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I never thought the medium range would fail this spectacularly, though...not trying to imply that. Yeah. This was some shit luck with nuances for sure. The only thing you could argue was last Sunday, but that was for a relatively small area geographically. I will say within about 10 days Scooter caution flags did start to show up. Sure I suppose you could argue they always do, but when those ridges fold over AK like a floppy boob and push troughing into the Gulf of Alaska from the east, never a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Remember two days ago when the GFS said this? LMAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. This was some shit luck with nuances for sure. The only thing you could argue was last Sunday, but that was for a relatively small area geographically. I will say within about 10 days Scooter caution flags did start to show up. Sure I suppose you could argue they always do, but when those ridges fold over AK like a floppy boob and push troughing into the Gulf of Alaska from the east, never a good sign. Where do you think the pattern goes from Christmas to the end of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 And for Christ's sake, let's make a pact for no threads allowed beyond 3 days of an event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Where do you think the pattern goes from Christmas to the end of the year? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Where do you think the pattern goes from Christmas to the end of the year? Maybe 1 or 2 chances of something before it goes to shit for a bit. No idea about January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Good melt my mpm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Good melt my mpm. Dude shat up himself 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I'm always amazed how cutters can be locked in several days in advance. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I'm always amazed how cutters can be locked in several days in advance. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk We’ve been through this before. Getting a 50-100 mile Snow shield is harder than a low going from ALB to Detroit with basically the same outcome. Torch. The effects of a low whether it’s in Albany or Detroit are the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We’ve been through this before. Getting a 50-100 mile Snow shield is harder than a low going from ALB to Detroit with basically the same outcome. Torch. The effects of a low whether it’s in Albany or Detroit are the same. Yeah, understood. Sucks just the same. Nothing pisses me off more in winter when we have snow otg then it gets washed away. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Lava Rock said: Yeah, understood. Sucks just the same. Nothing pisses me off more in winter when we have snow otg then it gets washed away. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk It sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Have to say one of the biggest disappointments if it works out this way. Nuances like a couple degrees in the BL prevented a 2 footer on the coast. LP was exactly where we thought it would develop just too much taint. Next week was supposed to be the coup de grace in my mind way back in November. But alas this is a humbling game and has been forever. The trolls came out of the wood shed today but expected. They don't contribute just Monday Morning QB. Still an epic CNNE event none the less. Coastal plain aside pretty special storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I am on the January is not going to rock train. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still holding on to my "forecast": Dec 3-5 AN; Jan 1-3 AN; Feb 5+AN; March 0-2 BN with near-normal snowfall despite the temps. The last is really a crap shoot under any circumstances. A couple of good storms in a cold spell in January & March will do it for many. Least certain about the February torch. My Farmers Almanac approach is based on bad memories from the 70's and 80's plus AGT (Anthropogenic Torching) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The gfs is preferable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Sorry, call me an optimist but this is all I can think in my head after reading this forum the last few days: Maybe Winter 22-23 will turn out to be a turd, but we have had several good to great winters that started with shitty Decembers and grinch storms right before Christmas. Can’t give up on things less than a third of the way through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. This was some shit luck with nuances for sure. The only thing you could argue was last Sunday, but that was for a relatively small area geographically. I will say within about 10 days Scooter caution flags did start to show up. Sure I suppose you could argue they always do, but when those ridges fold over AK like a floppy boob and push troughing into the Gulf of Alaska from the east, never a good sign. I never liked the look of the ULL in se Canada, but I tricked myself into getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: The 18 0z GFS? New vendor? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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