December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Damage In Tolland]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was my early season call, too.

Hopefully more like a I495 thing, and not a Berkshires thing.

May be more an interior Central Hills thing .

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

May be more an interior Central Hills thing .

Could be a Tolland, CT, YBY thing, too

[Whineminster]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

May be more an interior Central Hills thing .

This time of year, for sure. West and North of an I-84/I-190 type deal. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could be a Tolland, CT, YBY thing, too

May or may not be a Metheun, MA thing too 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

i moved into a new house that day. what a disaster. 1 year old furniture being moved in the back of a pick up truck in a raging snowstorm. snow on peoples feet virtually destroying brand new carpets. lost power that night, so first night in new house sleeping on the floor of the living room next to the fireplace, our only source of heat. woke up to pine tree branches on both vehicles. What a great day that was!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i moved into a new house that day. what a disaster. 1 year old furniture being moved in the back of a pick up truck in a raging snowstorm. snow on peoples feet virtually destroying brand new carpets. lost power that night, so first night in new house sleeping on the floor of the living room next to the fireplace, our only source of heat. woke up to pine tree branches on both vehicles. What a great day that was!

That sounds fantastic! 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i moved into a new house that day. what a disaster. 1 year old furniture being moved in the back of a pick up truck in a raging snowstorm. snow on peoples feet virtually destroying brand new carpets. lost power that night, so first night in new house sleeping on the floor of the living room next to the fireplace, our only source of heat. woke up to pine tree branches on both vehicles. What a great day that was!

More please 

[weatherwiz]

Actually wouldn't be surprised if we saw some LES bands migrate well into portions of SNE tomorrow night. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a little solace in the fact that when you step back and look at it from orbit the hemisphere appears that it has no choice but to end up in a negative NAO. I’m just hoping that model magnification will actually be our ally in this case and that what verifies is a more moderate negative NAO blocking …such that doesn’t become overbearing

Being further south I am selfishly hoping the NAO is on the stronger side though even that isn't always good. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually wouldn't be surprised if we saw some LES bands migrate well into portions of SNE tomorrow night. 

Do you think it would be a good idea if I took my clothes off?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you think it would be a good idea if I took my clothes off?

I do but your skin may feel otherwise.

[RDRY]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was my early season call, too.

Hopefully more like a I495 thing, and not a Berkshires thing.

[Brewbeer]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you think it would be a good idea if I took my clothes off?

Not if you are over 30

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Brewbeer said:

Not if you are over 30

But of course its cool that I'm male...just worried about the contour of my pecs with the advance of middle age

[rclab]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you think it would be a good idea if I took my clothes off?

 

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I do but your skin may feel otherwise.

 

3 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

Not if you are over 30

Good morning 40/70, WWiz, Bb. I finally and fully understated the meaning of the term click bait. Thank you, as always …

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, my data streams are up and running, so just a waiting game for the first system of note, which should arrive shortly after the 10th IMO.

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

do irreparable damage to therapy clients

You mean half this forum?

[Baroclinic Zone]

We wait down here is SE MA until mid month before I see anything noteworthy.  Pattern looks hostile truly builds in.

[greenmtnwx]

12z GFS looks pretty hideous short and long range. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

12z GFS looks pretty hideous short and long range. 

Good because we know how accurate the op runs in the long range .

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But of course its cool that I'm male...just worried about the contour of my pecker with the advance of middle age

Believe me, there are some things we need not dwell on........

[greenmtnwx]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good because we know how accurate the op runs in the long range .

I think it’s fair to point out that things may not progress like we hope. There are signs that although we will get a block in Canada, it could be fairly transient and the ridge in east or at least zonal type flow resumes shortly after. There is a window but it may not be great. 

[greenmtnwx]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good because we know how accurate the op runs in the long range .

That SE ridging is pretty darn stubborn on guidance as well. It might get flattened but seems to want to pop up and even retrograde NW. It seems as if at least early on here the SE ridge wants to be a feature this winter. At least on the op runs it wants to put most of us on the SE side of any systems. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

That SE ridging is pretty darn stubborn on guidance as well. It might get flattened but seems to want to pop up and even retrograde NW. It seems as if at least early on here the SE ridge wants to be a feature this winter. At least on the op runs it wants to put most of us on the SE side of any systems. 

Sure we could all strike out here, however I will take my chances anytime in December with the following:

1.) AO -3 

2.) NAO -1.5 

3.) MJO progression through 8,1,2

4.) RNA at only -0.75

Really all we can hope for at this stage. We will see is success is ultimately realized.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

That SE ridging is pretty darn stubborn on guidance as well. It might get flattened but seems to want to pop up and even retrograde NW. It seems as if at least early on here the SE ridge wants to be a feature this winter. At least on the op runs it wants to put most of us on the SE side of any systems. 

The SE ridge is good it prevents suppression.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Sure we could all strike out here, however I will take my chances anytime in December with the following:

1.) AO -3 

2.) NAO -1.5 

3.) MJO progression through 8,1,2

4.) RNA at only -0.75

Really all we can hope for at this stage. We will see is success is ultimately realized.

Thank you. He’s another worry wart.  It looks about as good as it can look, and whether that ends up delivering snow or not, nobody knows. But I’ll take the look as you pointed out any day…over something less attractive. 

[CoastalWx]

This is why we have ensembles people.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you. He’s another worry wart.  It looks about as good as it can look, and whether that ends up delivering snow or not, nobody knows. But I’ll take the look as you pointed out any day…over something less attractive. 

Yeah I don’t see how you can possibly be negative about our chances with this look.

[brooklynwx99]

here is the run-to-run change from the 06z to 12z GFS OP. OP models always struggle at range, but they're going to struggle even more with a blocked up pattern with tons of amplification 

gotta use the ensembles, and they still look good

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is why we have ensembles people.

Absolutely. But we have GreenMountain Coffee, and a few others constantly complaining about OP runs…WTF?