weathafella Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Somebody post the op gfs clown maps for the run. Eye candy for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Somebody post the op gfs clown maps for the run. Eye candy for sure! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Hey I know he’s a young kid(I think..early 20’s), and I don’t mean to hurt his feelings. He just needs to read and listen more, and learn a few things. And contain the urge to post his fantasies. I get the excitement, man I feel it too. But this has a tremendously long way to go. Could fall apart tomorrow for all we know. Sometimes a lil tough love is what’s needed. No hard feelings George. Just relax and watch things play out. All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. You still need to be yourself brother. Don’t rein at all in just some 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Somebody post the op gfs clown maps for the run. Eye candy for sure! Congrats Katahdin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 This is potentially the best 2-3 weeks in 8 years en route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Weeklies look good again into mid January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 hours ago, George001 said: All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. Sounds good George. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 hours ago, George001 said: All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. Be you man. We rib on each other in good fun. I need you to keep my George Costanza references at the forefront. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: This is potentially the best 2-3 weeks in 8 years en route. It could also be the most frustrating 2-3 weeks of your life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It could also be the most frustrating 2-3 weeks of your life. Probably not possible rolling back frustrations over the past 76 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Weeklies have the cold pattern lasting through January . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats Katahdin. Maine's tallest snow depth is 94", at Chimney Pond in 2017. No competition for Pinkham Notch in Feb 1969 (164") but quite respectable. Most I've measured was 80", at Big 20 Twp on 3/15/84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Last frame of the GFS is the Grinch coming a week late. Luckily off at 384h and before that … yum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, ariof said: Last frame of the GFS is the Grinch coming a week late. Luckily off at 384h and before that … yum. Hmmm…16 days out, ya I’m not too worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 How long b4 Brett the hitman hart says he was right about this pattern and storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 NNE interior storms make me wNna say mean words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Man, low bar for me on Xmas..whitest Xmas I have ever seen was about a foot depth in 1995. Good odds I beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, TalcottWx said: NNE interior storms make me wNna say mean words Maybe by this time next week it won’t matter much anymore…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, low bar for me on Xmas..whitest Xmas I have ever seen was about a foot depth in 1995. Good odds I beat that. I bet if you can ascertain records a foot on that date is probably near the top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, low bar for me on Xmas..whitest Xmas I have ever seen was about a foot depth in 1995. Good odds I beat that. I dont think it was xmas but I recall 8 inches or more on the 26th somewhere in the time I lived at 171 east st Methuen from 2001 to 2003. I dont think i have the pictures anymore but I can see them in my mind. What yr was it? It may have been the year vinatieri kicked that field goal, my memory remembers weird things and I think that was jan 2002 so it must have been dec 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: I dont think it was xmas but I recall 8 inches or more on the 26th somewhere in the time I lived at 171 east st Methuen from 2001 to 2003. I dont think i have the pictures anymore but I can see them in my mind. What yr was it? It may have been the year vinatieri kicked that field goal, my memory remembers weird things and I think that was jan 2002 so it must have been dec 2001 While I started looking in the archive I came across this, Walt you are my hero and just another reason I love the weather, no one to this day writes an AFD like Walt Im going to follow this up with another from the archive 599 FXUS61 KBOX 261713 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001 ...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS. CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED. ...PRVS DISC PER DRAG... ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN. CONF ON HOW THIS UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST. MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY. STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z. IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA. PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX FMH TDY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN LESS. NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN REFILL THIS AFTN. QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP. GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT 3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+ AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET. CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE 100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE OF THE YEAR. LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF NEAR NORMAL TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY ACCOMPANIED CFPS. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK). .BOX...WXA MA 22-23. SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS. SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY. DRAG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDBOX&e=200103050008 Man I love this archive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: While I started looking in the archive I came across this, Walt you are my hero and just another reason I love the weather, no one to this day writes an AFD like Walt Im going to follow this up with another from the archive 599 FXUS61 KBOX 261713 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001 ...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS. CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED. ...PRVS DISC PER DRAG... ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN. CONF ON HOW THIS UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST. MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY. STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z. IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA. PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX FMH TDY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN LESS. NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN REFILL THIS AFTN. QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP. GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT 3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+ AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET. CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE 100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE OF THE YEAR. LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF NEAR NORMAL TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY ACCOMPANIED CFPS. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK). .BOX...WXA MA 22-23. SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS. SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY. DRAG he still post great write ups here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: he still post great write ups here hopefully next week will pull him out of retirement and into amwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 hours ago, weathafella said: I bet if you can ascertain records a foot on that date is probably near the top. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 hours ago, dmcginvt said: hopefully next week will pull him out of retirement and into amwx No need to pull him out. He posts all the time down in the NYC forum since he moved to NJ. WDrag. Very accessible to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: No need to pull him out. He posts all the time down in the NYC forum since he moved to NJ. WDrag. Very accessible to. One of the all time best mets. I had the pleasure of speaking with Walt several times when he was at Box. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Balls deep CHEYENNE CROSSING, SD 48" DEADWOOD, SD 36" MISSION, SD 34" SPEARFISH, SD 30.5" SWETT, SD 30" FINLAND, MN 29" TWO HARBORS, MN 28.2" WALES, MN 28" BEAVER BAY, MN 28"MISSION, SD 28" NORRIS, SD 27.2" DULUTH, MN 27" HULETT, WY 26" ENDERLIN, ND 25.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Balls deep CHEYENNE CROSSING, SD 48" DEADWOOD, SD 36" MISSION, SD 34" SPEARFISH, SD 30.5" SWETT, SD 30" FINLAND, MN 29" TWO HARBORS, MN 28.2" WALES, MN 28" BEAVER BAY, MN 28"MISSION, SD 28" NORRIS, SD 27.2" DULUTH, MN 27" HULETT, WY 26" ENDERLIN, ND 25.5" While we play with our balls. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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