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December 2022 Obs/Disc

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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forkyfork
forkyfork

waahhhhh i didn't get my instant blizzard when the nao went negative!!!!!!!

George001
George001

The setup for mid month is loaded, historically strong North Atlantic blocking, a western ridge centered over Montana (ideal for east coast cyclogenesis), and excess water vapor available for storms t

dendrite
dendrite

Me too

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey I know he’s a young kid(I think..early 20’s), and I don’t mean to hurt his feelings. He just needs to read and listen more, and learn a few things. And contain the urge to post his fantasies.
 

I get the excitement, man I feel it too. But this has a tremendously long way to go. Could fall apart tomorrow for all we know.  Sometimes a lil tough love is what’s needed.  No hard feelings George. Just relax and watch things play out.

All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, George001 said:

All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. 

You still need to be yourself brother. Don’t rein at all in just some

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, George001 said:

All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. 

Sounds good George:thumbsup:. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, George001 said:

All good my man, I don’t take it personally. Hell, once I was corrected I realize how dumb it was to say it could snow well east of the low and was laughing my ass off with the others at how dumb it was. Life is a lot more enjoyable when you can poke fun at yourself and not take everything personally. But yeah I get why you and some others get frustrated with my posts, so I’ll going to try to tone it down some and make better posts. 

Be you man. We rib on each other in good fun. I need you to keep my George Costanza references at the forefront. 

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, low bar for me on Xmas..whitest Xmas I have ever seen was about a foot depth in 1995. Good odds I beat that.

I dont think it was xmas but I recall 8 inches or more on the 26th somewhere in the time I lived at 171 east st Methuen from 2001 to 2003.  I dont think i have the pictures anymore but I can see them in my mind.  What yr was it?   It may have been the year vinatieri kicked that field goal, my memory remembers weird things and I think that was jan 2002 so it must have been dec 2001

 

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I dont think it was xmas but I recall 8 inches or more on the 26th somewhere in the time I lived at 171 east st Methuen from 2001 to 2003.  I dont think i have the pictures anymore but I can see them in my mind.  What yr was it?   It may have been the year vinatieri kicked that field goal, my memory remembers weird things and I think that was jan 2002 so it must have been dec 2001

 

While I started looking in the archive I came across this, Walt you are my hero and just another reason I love the weather, no one to this day writes an AFD like Walt Im going to follow this up with another from the archive

  

599 
FXUS61 KBOX 261713
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001


...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY
LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS. 
CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED. 


...PRVS DISC PER DRAG...

ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND 
NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC 
CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE 
QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN 
REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S 
OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A 
DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). 
LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN 
NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO 
EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN.  CONF ON HOW THIS 
UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL 
RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD 
PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST.  

MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO
        SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY.

STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E
GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS
TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z.  IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS
CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS.  NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA.

PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN
       BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS
       OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP
       TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX
       FMH TDY.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON
WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE
FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN
LESS.

NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED
     EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE
     THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV
     IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD
     UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL
     BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING
     WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM
     DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST
     PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN
     REFILL THIS AFTN.

QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH
     AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP.

GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT
       3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME
       WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE
       HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF
       INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+
       AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF
       THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY
       WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET.

CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK
AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE
100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL
DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS
FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO
MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE
OF THE YEAR.

LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT

LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND
    EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF
    NEAR NORMAL TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY
    ACCOMPANIED CFPS. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR
    AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL
    WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF
    CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND
    APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK).

.BOX...WXA MA 22-23.
       SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS.
       SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW        
       WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY.

DRAG
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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

While I started looking in the archive I came across this, Walt you are my hero and just another reason I love the weather, no one to this day writes an AFD like Walt Im going to follow this up with another from the archive

  

599 
FXUS61 KBOX 261713
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001


...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY
LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS. 
CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED. 


...PRVS DISC PER DRAG...

ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND 
NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC 
CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE 
QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN 
REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S 
OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A 
DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED). 
LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN 
NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO 
EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN.  CONF ON HOW THIS 
UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL 
RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD 
PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST.  

MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO
        SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY.

STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E
GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS
TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z.  IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS
CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS.  NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA.

PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN
       BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS
       OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP
       TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX
       FMH TDY.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON
WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE
FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN
LESS.

NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED
     EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE
     THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV
     IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD
     UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL
     BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING
     WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM
     DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST
     PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN
     REFILL THIS AFTN.

QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH
     AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP.

GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT
       3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME
       WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE
       HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF
       INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+
       AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF
       THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY
       WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET.

CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK
AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE
100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL
DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS
FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO
MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE
OF THE YEAR.

LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT

LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND
    EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF
    NEAR NORMAL TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY
    ACCOMPANIED CFPS. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR
    AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL
    WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF
    CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND
    APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK).

.BOX...WXA MA 22-23.
       SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS.
       SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW        
       WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY.

DRAG

he still post great write ups here

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Balls deep

CHEYENNE CROSSING, SD 48"
DEADWOOD, SD 36"
MISSION, SD 34"
SPEARFISH, SD 30.5"
SWETT, SD    30"
FINLAND, MN 29"
TWO HARBORS, MN 28.2"
WALES, MN 28"
BEAVER BAY, MN 28"MISSION, SD  28"
NORRIS, SD 27.2"
DULUTH, MN 27"
HULETT, WY 26"
ENDERLIN, ND 25.5"

While we play with our balls.

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