December 2022 Obs/Disc

[CoastalWx]

Next week definitely has nuke potential. Whether it’s a hugger or offshore remains to be seen, but a power house low is possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week definitely has nuke potential. Whether it’s a hugger or offshore remains to be seen, but a power house low is possible.

At least if it hugs, there is a solid antecedent airmass, so I may still get to toggle with the CF for a while.

[George001]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

So do I, but let's be logical about it.  Half the fun is tracking... at least to me

Ya know, I actually enjoyed watching that crazy ass 0z euro run come just as much as I enjoy seeing blizzards on the models this far out. Even if it rained over my area it was a really cool evolution with wacky shit you never really see, like 7 different lows, snow well east of the low, ect. As many others corrected me about earlier, it won’t actually happen that way. We will see 2 lows at most, the primary and secondary low (Miller b) with a rain snow line NW of the low, not east. Still though, it was really cool to see that evolution even though it won’t happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ya know, I actually enjoyed watching that crazy ass 0z euro run come just as much as I enjoy seeing blizzards on the models this far out. Even if it rained over my area it was a really cool evolution with wacky shit you never really see, like 7 different lows, snow well east of the low, ect. As many others corrected me about earlier, it won’t actually happen that way. We will see 2 lows at most, the primary and secondary low (Miller b) with a rain snow line NW of the low, not east. Still though, it was really cool to see that evolution even though it won’t happen.

See, I couldn't give two shits about how meteorologically anomalous a system is...if it rains IMBY, then its no different than the other 12343,588348388,4828883 days that have....rained IMBY.

 Not that anomalous. I don't care that the ULL over Watertown, NY is (insert irrelevant BS number) SD below normal.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, I couldn't give two shits about how meteorologically anomalous a system is...if rains IMBY, then its no different than the other 12343,588348388,4828883 days that have....rained IMBY.

That’s fair. For me if it actually happens that way I’ll be pissed because it rained, but I know it’s going to change drastically since it’s so far out so it makes it easier to appreciate the evolution of the run for me. I get wanting to see the low farther east though, the Euro has been inland for a few runs now so it would be nice to see that change over the next couple of days. I would think even over the cape would be good.

[Sn0waddict]

Not too shabby:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, George001 said:

That’s fair. For me if it actually happens that way I’ll be pissed because it rained, but I know it’s going to change drastically since it’s so far out so it makes it easier to appreciate the evolution of the run for me. I get wanting to see the low farther east though, the Euro has been inland for a few runs now so it would be nice to see that change over the next couple of days.

That particular run is no sweat off of my crack...at least not at this juncture, however, it pulls that shit next week, then its full-tilt off to the funny farm for Xmas.

Santa will be a leaving a prescription for a monthly injection of Abilify in my stocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Not too shabby:

 

No issues with that.

[UnitedWx]

George,  since I'm stuck home recovering from fuccing strep and I'm bored to tears maybe ill pull out my KU books volumes 1 and 2 over coffee this a.m. and weenie out  Seriously though, if you don't have them...I recommend them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS still leave a lot on the table, actually....H5 low is still near Montreal.

Phase that in down near the BM...then we're talking.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We need to shift that whole trough axis east about 150-200mi IMHO.

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least if it hugs, there is a solid antecedent airmass, so I may still get to toggle with the CF for a while.

In my forecast I noted lows in mid teens and highs in the high 20s just preceding.  Snow cover will help too.  I’m optimistic 

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS still leave a lot on the table, actually....H5 low is still near Montreal.

Phase that in down near the BM...then we're talking.

 

With a block in the Davis straight could the upper low make it that far n and e?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In my forecast I noted lows in mid teens and highs in the high 20s just preceding.  Snow cover will help too.  I’m optimistic 

We can still get a decent storm, but that biblical idea that is being thrown about is not happening in our area without that trough axis moving eastward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

With a block in the Davis straight could the upper low make it that far n and e?

Very valid question...correction vector is def. east.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We can still get a decent storm, but that biblical idea that is being thrown about is not happening in our area without that rough axis moving eastward.

Well maybe the question is whether the ridge out west needs to get a little further East.  But for me that often means a jackpot over sne, thus I prefer to flirt with disaster

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well maybe the question is whether the ridge out west needs to get a little further East.  But for me that often means a jackpot over sne, thus I prefer to flirt with disaster

Yea, one and the same. Trend has been to move that more bodily on shore, too...Tip mentioned it yesterday.

[Cold Miser]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week definitely has nuke potential. Whether it’s a hugger or offshore remains to be seen, but a power house low is possible.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[Zeus]

Someone told me breakfast was ready.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Someone told me breakfast was ready.

I had egg whites

[Zeus]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I had egg whites

Show me, on the doll, where I asked.

I am here to masticate the ensemble mean.

[ROOSTA]

8 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Someone told me breakfast was ready.

Just bend-over easy. I mean break 'em easy.
It's officially a Big-Dog Zeus is in the house! 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

06z gfs...close the curtains?

Come again? It’s loaded with potential. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Just bend-over easy. I mean break 'em easy.
It's officially a Big-Dog Zeus is in the house! 

I summoned him yesterday

[Chris12WX]

In George’s defense, he’s not wrong about the EPS Ensemble mean snow. 
But other than that, yeah. Go Wolfie.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

In George’s defense, he’s not wrong about the EPS Ensemble mean snow. 
But other than that, yeah. Go Wolfie.

Hey I know he’s a young kid(I think..early 20’s), and I don’t mean to hurt his feelings. He just needs to read and listen more, and learn a few things. And contain the urge to post his fantasies.
 

I get the excitement, man I feel it too. But this has a tremendously long way to go. Could fall apart tomorrow for all we know.  Sometimes a lil tough love is what’s needed.  No hard feelings George. Just relax and watch things play out.

[Zeus]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I summoned him yesterday

Hate to disappoint, but I actually don't have any alerts enabled if someone tags me in a post.

I came because several models forced me to come, and really, that's how everyone should live.

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We have a new weenie of the year winner.

Fixed.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Zeus said:

I came because several models forced me to come

Sounds like a party