December 2022 Obs/Disc

[George001]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m in London and about to go to work, but there are many on here who will give you hundreds of reasons of why it won’t snow east of that low and even when there is a cold air mass preceding. Of course, you probably know all of those reasons but are just in deep psychological denial.

I’ll concede that it’s rare, but it can happen. Not only is there a frigid air mass preceding we also have strong North Atlantic blocking in place to lock it in. We have a frigid airmass, strong North Atlantic blocking, and a bombing low in the 960s. The Euro has it snowing well east of the low, and I read somewhere that the superstorm in March 1993 running inland. Yet Boston still got around a foot in that storm, despite being east of the low track. In my opinion if the EPS is right about the setup (big if to be fair), it will snow east of the low. 

[George001]

This is batshit insane considering how far out the storm is

[Henry's Weather]

It seems my proclamation back in November was a couple days faster than the actual progression of things.

[ROOSTA]

George001, Slow down buddy. You're getting way out ahead of your skies. Odds of verification <10%.

There's about 30 model runs before it should be taken seriously. Strong signal, yes but all your doing is setting yourself up for a let-down.
Read more, play the devil's advocate, ask self what could go wrong? Play it conservatively till it's inside D5.     

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Whoa. Some Colors in that you don’t usually see. 

Hit of acid before bed?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I love this look, most of those lows are in the 970s and 960s, with even one in the 940s! I don’t even care that most of them are huggers or run inland a bit, when the airmass is that cold and the low is that strong, I don’t see why it cant snow east of the low.

I care.

[Baroclinic Zone]

dusted overnight

[WinterWolf]

George……STFU!  You speak utter NONSENSE.  You don’t seem to learn anything.  Your posts are ridiculous and add nothing to the discussion.  I was hoping to see some rational posts this morning, and all I see is your junk.
 

Somebody Five post this lunatic.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

George……STFU!  You speak utter NONSENSE.  You don’t seem to learn anything.  Your posts are ridiculous and add nothing to the discussion.  I was hoping to see some rational posts this morning, and all I see is your junk.
 

Somebody Five post this lunatic.  

Chapter 5: The George Situation.

[ORH_wxman]

I think my favorite post was how George thinks it could snow on the east side of a 960 low. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Happy Melting Season to one and all!!!

[MJO812]

We have a new weenie of the year contestant. 

[brooklynwx99]

nothing quite says snow like screaming 40 mph winds off the 50 degree ocean

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think my favorite post was how George thinks it could snow on the east side of a 960 low. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nothing quite says snow like screaming 40 mph winds off the 50 degree ocean

Was hoping to see some factual discussion from the likes of yourself or the like.  Instead we have resident lunatic telling us the storm can make its own cold, and it can snow no matter what.  My lord . 

[George001]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nothing quite says snow like screaming 40 mph winds off the 50 degree ocean

I’m trying to think of ways to debunk that but I can’t. Goddamn it man, you just debunked all those posts I made about it snowing east of the low with one sentence. Hell, that even explains why my March 1993 example doesn’t apply, the ocean temps are much warmer than they are in March. I’ll admit it, I was wrong to not be concerned about the track of the storm. To be fair, in my defense the Euro did show snow east of the 960mb low in Central PA even if it wasn’t for my area. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Huge cross guidance ens signals. Becs type shit. 

[cut]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m trying to think of ways to debunk that but I can’t. Goddamn it man, you just debunked all those posts I made about it snowing east of the low with one sentence. Hell, that even explains why my March 1993 example doesn’t apply, the ocean temps are much warmer than they are in March. I’ll admit it, I was wrong to not be concerned about the track of the storm. To be fair, in my defense the Euro did show snow east of the 960mb low in Central PA even if it wasn’t for my area. 

Just don’t get out over your skis - your obviously a snow enthusiast like myself. Just take in the experience of the meteorological minds here more. Sure post - that’s why we all are here - but don’t let your snow goggles color the truth.

[cut]

Just now, cut said:

Just don’t get out over your skis - your obviously a snow enthusiast like myself. Just take in the experience of the meteorological minds here more. Sure post - that’s why we all are here - but don’t let your snow goggles color the truth.

And I hope we get feet of snow too!!!

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m trying to think of ways to debunk that but I can’t. Goddamn it man, you just debunked all those posts I made about it snowing east of the low with one sentence. Hell, that even explains why my March 1993 example doesn’t apply, the ocean temps are much warmer than they are in March. I’ll admit it, I was wrong to not be concerned about the track of the storm. To be fair, in my defense the Euro did show snow east of the 960mb low in Central PA even if it wasn’t for my area. 

Please. Stop posting for a while. And read more and try to learn a few things.  It’s for your own good. Then return with some decent posts. 

[CoastalWx]

All right well stepping away from the psycho convention and back to reality, the look ahead to me is finally something where I haven’t felt quite this good in a while.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Huge cross guidance ens signals. Becs type shit. 

That's all you need to discuss at this point.

[cut]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All right well stepping away from the psycho convention and back to reality, the look ahead to me is finally something where I haven’t felt quite this good in a while.

Indeed!!!

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m trying to think of ways to debunk that but I can’t. Goddamn it man, you just debunked all those posts I made about it snowing east of the low with one sentence. Hell, that even explains why my March 1993 example doesn’t apply, the ocean temps are much warmer than they are in March. I’ll admit it, I was wrong to not be concerned about the track of the storm. To be fair, in my defense the Euro did show snow east of the 960mb low in Central PA even if it wasn’t for my area. 

Just to help you out a little here...find the triple point in that map you posted. That'll show you where your warm conveyor/sector is. The cold front is through Philly by that point. They're just in some backside/ULL snows with CAA from the SW.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

One thing that has been nice to see (dare I ginx it ) is the progression of the 500 mb anomalies on EPS /GFS and in particular the trough diving into N Rockies and moving *SE* and not seeing lower heights ooze SW toward 4 corners states . This is a look I like overall a good amount *and confidence has increased * let’s see it hold on 48 more hrs and lock-it in 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's all you need to discuss at this point.

Yup. We’ll just sit back and watch it play out. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

George……STFU!  You speak utter NONSENSE.  You don’t seem to learn anything.  Your posts are ridiculous and add nothing to the discussion.  I was hoping to see some rational posts this morning, and all I see is your junk.
 

Somebody Five post this lunatic.  

Melt 

[Go Kart Mozart]

06z gfs...close the curtains?

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

Yep I want a historic blizzard with feet of snow

So do I, but let's be logical about it.  Half the fun is tracking... at least to me