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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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That ICON model is about to explode something truly exotic at the end of this run.  Some of the most powerful mid level jet max velocities associated with that torpedoing mid west wave I can recall in years.  

Heh. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s now plugging into the 20-24th aspect I say it’s just being strange. 

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The key difference there is noticed the western ridges come inland now it makes a big difference in the spatial forcing. 

So it’s moving south underneath the western end of that sub polar vortex and it’s enticing it to come south. that’s about to set up a subsume phase. It reminds me of some of those 1970s winters. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That ICON model is about to explode something truly exotic at the end of this run.  Some of the most powerful mid level jet max velocities associated with that torpedoing mid west wave I can recall in years.  

Heh. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s now plugging into the 20-24th aspect I say it’s just being strange. 

Looks like a triple phasing dong.

image.thumb.png.7b194a52e631dad4dca5cc1bf03c80d7.png

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I joke but isn’t it depicting a triple phase? I see sj, nj, and a piece of the pv dropping in. 

Looks like two.  Pack S/w subsumed by an inevitable N stream/spv segment. 

storm enthusiast probably don’t want triple Stream phasers even though it sounds cool to say that ha ha but seriously triple stream phasers tend to require full latitude, which means they’re happening at planetary scales …which means they’re moving really fast. Two stream phase have better mechanics for slow down/ install and do retrograde etc, pounding winter weather for many hours

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I only got it through 186 so far but it is bringing better western bridge expression in. And it does look similar to the icon type of scenario with a very strong pacific jet diving into the Mississippi Valley and the western end of that subpolar vortexes vulnerable to collapsing south …that is a dire scenario if that happens.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I only got it through 186 so far but it is bringing better western bridge expression in. And it does look similar to the icon type of scenario with a very strong pacific jet diving into the Mississippi Valley and the western end of that subpolar vortexes vulnerable to collapsing south …that is a dire scenario if that happens.

Why is it Dire…don’t we want dire? Let it storm/snow the F*ck out of itself. 

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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.2747abf0a571e2197168587f630cbbb1.png
The Canadian has a 962mb miller B nor’easter just off the cape. Frigid airmass as well.

I'd love a big storm, we all would, just don't know how I feel about getting one on Christmas eve/Christmas day, would cause a lot of travel problems for people. I remember getting a decent one on Christmas when I was a kid, woke up to a decent amount of snow overnight. Will probably knows when and how much, I don't remember.

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image.thumb.png.22af67fdb6ae92466b8ceb7442e80955.png7 lows on the Euro, with a 963mb low in eastern central PA. I know it shows rain verbatim, but im not buying that with the airmass in place. It’s funny how it gives Philly 2 feet despite the low being well west, that’s how cold the airmass is. It shows how much room for error we have, if the low even goes into Western Mass instead of cutting to Buffalo, it’s very possible it would be heavy snow for all of SNE, even the coast despite the low running inland. 

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

image.thumb.png.f4b912dd07011b15f3f2224cd6ec047a.png

I love this look, most of those lows are in the 970s and 960s, with even one in the 940s! I don’t even care that most of them are huggers or run inland a bit, when the airmass is that cold and the low is that strong, I don’t see why it cant snow east of the low.

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32 minutes ago, George001 said:

I love this look, most of those lows are in the 970s and 960s, with even one in the 940s! I don’t even care that most of them are huggers or run inland a bit, when the airmass is that cold and the low is that strong, I don’t see why it cant snow east of the low.

I’m in London and about to go to work, but there are many on here who will give you hundreds of reasons of why it won’t snow east of that low and even when there is a cold air mass preceding. Of course, you probably know all of those reasons but are just in deep psychological denial.

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